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One Year into the War in Ukraine

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Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#71

Post by pshirshov »

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

> vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements

Frankly, you have no idea about what's actually happening there. All these "movements" are nothing and the only potential sources of real separatism are the regional governments. Though there are multiple measurements in place to make that impossible.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#72

Post by skissane »

Animats wrote: post #6

Business Insider says 97% of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine.[1] That leaves the central Russian government very vulnerable to its own internal separatist movements, of which there are rather a lot.[2]. Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Eston…

> Some of those movements are in areas landlocked or not economically viable, but the Free Ingria movement (Leningrad oblast, including St. Petersburg) has potential. That area is bordered by Finland, Estonia, and the Gulf of Finland. An independence movement there could be well supported from Europe.

Most successful independence movements are based on some kind of distinct ethnic/national/cultural/religious/linguistic identity. “Ingria” is a historical term, coming from a time several hundred years ago when the area was ruled by Sweden and populated mainly by Finnic and Baltic peoples. However, the vast majority of its current population is ethnic Russian, and the Finns and Balts are now only small, highly assimilated minorities. The vast majority of its population don’t identify as “Ingrian”. That does not seem like a successful basis for an independence movement.

I think the most likely place for renewed separatism is Chechnya. Not right now while Kadyrov and Putin are so close, but if something happened to one (or both) of them, or if they had a falling out, it could easily start again. And spread to Dagestan, Ingushetia too, maybe even the entirety of Russia’s North Caucus region-in most of which ethnic Russians are a minority. An Islamic separatist movement is likely to find international support and funding from the Islamic world.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#73

Post by wonderwonder »

scohesc wrote: post #22
miguelazo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It really does seem that way... I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggress…

"I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces" Of course they are. These weapon systems were built to defeat Russia and now they are being used for just that with the bonus of 0 risk to US lives.

With that said the US is not making Ukraine fight, Ukraine wants to fight and is begging for the weapons that the West is providing and more of them. The Ukrainians are not puppets, we don't get to take away their agency. They are a free people fighting to remain that way while an insane person tries to bury them in the bodies of his soldiers.

"I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn't have a stake in" I would argue that everyone has a stake in preventing big countries from using force to just take chunks of weaker countries.

"almost like it's a convenient excuse to help distract people how much they're getting screwed over at home" People are not stupid, they are more than capable of holding multiple ideas and foci in their heads at the same time.

The war could end tomorrow, Putin just has to pack up and leave. In the mean time he is decimating a generation of young men and the myth of Russia as a super power.

He is also stealing tens of thousands of children.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#74

Post by ekianjo »

JohnFen wrote: post #36
scohesc wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really does seem that way... I think the west is using Ukraine as a way to whittle down Russian military forces at the expense of Ukrainians and "Allied" military equipment (instead of some theoretical war where the US send their soldiers _and_ equipment on the field, and the resulting PR nightmares, etc. that would cause) - essentially weakening Russia's military to a point so that Russia can't respond as aggress…

> I wish the west would stay out of conflicts it doesn't have a stake in I think there's a solid human rights reason to be involved in the way we are. But even ignoring that, I also think we do have a stake in this. > The fastest way out of the war is negotiation unfortunately Russia wants no negotiation that doesn't result in them stealing territory from Ukraine. You can't negotiate with that.

[flagged]

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#75

Post by dmitriid »

peyton wrote: post #19
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin's stated intentions, which were, and I quote "And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine". So even though they were stated clearly, they made little sense if you assume they aren't trying to take over Ukraine.

What do you mean? His speech [1] is really clear. I’m extremely disappointed in the reporting by the news here. [1]: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

His speech is not worth the paper it was written on.

Calling out one obvious lie: "It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force."

In September Russia "held" a "referendum" in occupied territories and immediately adjusted the Constitution to include the occupied territories.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#76

Post by anextio »

meheleventyone wrote: post #26
anextio wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russians have shown that they don't care about holding territory in the short term, see Kherson withdrawal, etc. They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties. If Ukraine goes into Transnistria it will not force Russia to capitulate.

> “They are only focused on attrition and minimizing their own casualties.” ??? That’s errr... going poorly.

https://meduza.io/amp/en/news/2023/02/17/close-to-15k-russia...

An investigation via open sources by the BBC and Meduza (an anti-Putin media outlet based in Latvia) has confirmed the deaths of about 15k Russian soldiers since the start of the war, and estimates the true number to be up to 60% higher.

What sources do you have that the widely reported media number of 200k+ is actually true that doesn’t ultimately come from the government of Ukraine (who would have an interest in over-inflating their victories) or by a western government that is militarily supporting Ukraine?

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#77

Post by UIUC_06 »

Only people whose knowledge of history begins with WW II think everything is Munich, and that analogy applies to everything.

There was 6,000 years of recorded history before Munich. It's not always correct to think that "if we appease them here, they'll be in our bedrooms next."

Sometimes in history, the two sides cut a deal, and peace was maintained for a few generations, which was all anyone expected anyway.

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#78

Post by bigdict »

RivieraKid wrote: post #47
pydry wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>its people mostly aren't Russian They basically are. They speak Russian and act like Russians. I doubt they'd mind being annexed.

I've recently read that only about 30% identify as Russians.

Yeah, the largest ethnic group. The largest ethnic group in California is Latinos. What's the issue?

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#79

Post by pshirshov »

andrey123 wrote: post #66
RivieraKid wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the mood regarding the war in your social circle? How often do they support it?

Zero war support across friends/colleagues but maybe up to 30% support on the streets (taxi drivers, cashiers, mechanics, neighbors, ...). In small cities there shall be more supporters (less Internet, more TV).

I really doubt it's "zero". I've quizzed many many people I had connections with and literally all of them support the war up to some extent. The most common opinion is "we shouldn't have started this but we should win this war and take over Ukraine and Poland". It would be really strange to count such opinions as "anti-war".

Re: One Year into the War in Ukraine

#80

Post by cjblomqvist »

I_complete_me wrote: post #68

In fact Putin is completely correct in his attempt to retrieve Ukraine for Mother Russia and it is the West that is the aggressor. Now, if you just had a visceral (negative) response to this, I am with you. The point I am trying to make is that the Russian people seem to be equally incredulous to the idea that Russia itself is the aggressor. How is it that the Russian media has such a hold over them - in this day of…

Easy to forget, but an objective and great educational system (which doesn't optimize only for getting people to be able to do certain jobs, but to truly educate people about life), along with free speech is equally important as free elections in order for democracy to work.
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