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Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

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Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#101

Post by bookofjoe »

nosianu wrote: post #80
badcppdev wrote: post #9

Anyone who has read Cryptonomicon should remember that the hero protagonists went to a lot of effort to secure a large mass of gold to 'back' the currency they wanted to create. The Baroque Trilogy is less clear as Isaac Newton mints new currency. Does that mean that perhaps Stephenson's opinions were always that currency needs to be backed by something whether it is gold or national borders.

As I understand money creation, at least the part created by commercial banks as described in "Bank of England: Money creation in the modern economy" -- https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/m... , that debt-based money is backed by something of value: The promise of the debtor to create something valuable which itself earns money, and more than was used to create it. . Here is a tiny story I onc…

Great book: "Frozen Desire: The Meaning of Money" by James Buchan (1997)

https://www.amazon.com/Frozen-Desire-Meaning-JAMES-BUCHAN/dp...

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#102

Post by suslik »

legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

I know at least two use cases where crypto really shines: 1) fast international transfers, including to countries not fully connected to an international bank system, 2) receiving and sending secure donations that are not susceptible to credit card leaks and censorship and avoid the PayPal / Patreon tax, which is substantial. I use it for both, and it is great.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#103

Post by WeylandYutani »

partiallypro wrote: post #65
legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

I think there are use cases in countries that have currency collapses, but that doesn't happen at a high enough rate for it to be commercially viable. At this point it's pure speculation.

Ofcourse but those have happened for ages. That's were the US dollar and euro come in. You do import/export business in Turkey with foreign currencies and foreign banks not worthless lira.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#104

Post by ElevenLathe »

noodlesUK wrote: post #61
strict9 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld You must not have a need to send money to recipients in other countries. I tried every option I could find until giving up in frustration and sending crypto instead. Not denying the negative aspects but it's a privileged position to assert criminality is the only use case.

I’m curious, what countries are you trying to send money between? I’ve only ever really transacted with big countries’ currencies (EUR, USD, GBP, etc.), and I’ve found that the ordinary banking systems (especially with fintech like Wise) serve me quite well for this use case. I’d love to hear more about the flipside of that.

I live in the US but have family in Poland and Xoom used to work quickly, flawlessly and cheaply (for USD->PLN transfers), but the last few transfers have just never gone through. Had to send it via PayPal which is slower, more expensive, and has worse exchange rates.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#105

Post by JohnFen »

giraffe_lady wrote: post #32
arethuza wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a few people seem to think that Sean Probst was modelled on Musk - but I didn't see him like that at all.... Edit: Wasn't Probst supposed to be from New Jersey?

Eh I think he's a composite representing just a general "tech visionary world changing genius guy." Based on when the book was written and some of the concrete details (space mining company) I read him as pretty significantly based on musk and bezos though.

This is my read. Not Musk, or any other guy, specifically. But it's also true that it's hard to find a single person in that crowd who doesn't act and talk like they're trying to become a supervillain.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#106

Post by cma »

rocket_surgeron wrote: post #12

Crypto solves no problems for ordinary users. Literally and actually, with no exceptions, no consumer cares about a public ledger or any of its other features. They do care about being able to dispute a transaction if they are scammed or unhappy. Crypto solves tons of problems for paranoiac techbros and get-rich-quick schemers.

Many care about a public ledger in a negative sense. If Amazon changed tbe default to public order history people would be pissed.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#107

Post by EL_Loco »

noodlesUK wrote: post #61
strict9 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld You must not have a need to send money to recipients in other countries. I tried every option I could find until giving up in frustration and sending crypto instead. Not denying the negative aspects but it's a privileged position to assert criminality is the only use case.

I’m curious, what countries are you trying to send money between? I’ve only ever really transacted with big countries’ currencies (EUR, USD, GBP, etc.), and I’ve found that the ordinary banking systems (especially with fintech like Wise) serve me quite well for this use case. I’d love to hear more about the flipside of that.

What countries, you ask?? Try being an immigrant from a poor South American/African country and then try the traditional methods wiring money to your rural family who stayed behind. I despise the crypto hype, but sending money via cryptocurrencies is A LOT easier for the poorest people, since cellphones are so widespread now. I know plenty, plenty of poor people in my country who don't have bank accounts but have smartphones. If crypto payments were more widely accepted, a lot of them wouldn't come close to touching a bank.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#108

Post by JohnFen »

petesergeant wrote: post #8
giraffe_lady wrote: post #3

Maybe it'll cause him to reflect on some of his other techno-optimism too. I like stephenson fine but he has a huge blind spot about the role of tech companies in positive transformations. I read seveneves a couple years ago and it was so intensely offputting to see obvious neil degrasse tyson and elon musk standins in straightforwardly heroic roles. For someone with such a sophisticated eye for power and change it j…

The real Rorschach test here is who Julia Bliss Flaherty is meant to be: HRC or Sarah Palin (who was still relevant in 2015)

I don't really see that she's meant to be either of them. Have I failed the test?

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#109

Post by pessimizer »

giraffe_lady wrote: post #62
danschuller wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe you already know but it was purposely written to be optimistic. https://web.archive.org/web/20120319135605/http://www.worldp... The idea being sci-fi feeds scientific discovery, but recent sci-fi had stopped doing this, so it was an attempt to address this.

I could have been more clear I guess. It's not the optimism about the future that bothers me, or even about technology per se. It's the apparent belief that irreverent vision-driven geniuses leading technology-focused companies is a coherent path into a positive future. To me this view is extremely american, contemporary and unproven, having emerged just in the last few decades and already running into serious issues…

One thing that both techno-capitalists and techno-commies have in common is that they will absolutely destroy the world today with the assumption that a visionary humanitarian warrior-scientist will arise and fix everything tomorrow.

The belief doesn't arrange itself along a left-right scale. It's mostly a self-serving belief held by wealthy upper-middle class professionals who insist that the WeWorks and Ubers (that they work for or invest in) are where these magical people will come from. It's the material philosophy of people who have never missed a meal unless they were on a diet.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#110

Post by CM30 »

rocket_surgeron wrote: post #12

Crypto solves no problems for ordinary users. Literally and actually, with no exceptions, no consumer cares about a public ledger or any of its other features. They do care about being able to dispute a transaction if they are scammed or unhappy. Crypto solves tons of problems for paranoiac techbros and get-rich-quick schemers.

Crypto only solves problems for ordinary users in cases where the society around them has collapsed or is on the verge of doing so.

As you say, this doesn't help most people in normally functioning societies, unless they're doing something where any sort of regulation is dangerous to them (often criminal activities and get rich quick schemes).

On the other hand I can see it being useful if the country is in complete meltdown, either due to a war, massive economic problems and overinflation (to Zimbabwe or Weimar Republic levels) or an authoritarian dictatorship.

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