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Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

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Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#71
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a few people seem to think that Sean Probst was modelled on Musk - but I didn't see him like that at all.... Edit: Wasn't Probst supposed to be from New Jersey?

Eh I think he's a composite representing just a general "tech visionary world changing genius guy." Based on when the book was written and some of the concrete details (space mining company) I read him as pretty significantly based on musk and bezos though.

I suspect my idea of what he was like was heavily influenced by the narration of the audiobook!

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#72
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld You must not have a need to send money to recipients in other countries. I tried every option I could find until giving up in frustration and sending crypto instead. Not denying the negative aspects but it's a privileged position to assert criminality is the only use case.

I’m curious, what countries are you trying to send money between? I’ve only ever really transacted with big countries’ currencies (EUR, USD, GBP, etc.), and I’ve found that the ordinary banking systems (especially with fintech like Wise) serve me quite well for this use case. I’d love to hear more about the flipside of that.

Yeah. I work in crypto custody and I use Wise to send money in France.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#73

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

> We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency

Speak for yourself.

Some of us saw right away it wasn't a solution looking for a problem, it was a scam looking for a mark.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#74
post #50

i like most of his other stuff, but i never really worked out what cryptonomicon was supposed to be about. much the same for the diamond age, which started off strong and then seemed to just ... evaporate?

> which started off strong and then seemed to just ... evaporate?

Welcome to every neal stephenson book. You get used to it.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#76

Anyone who has read Cryptonomicon should remember that the hero protagonists went to a lot of effort to secure a large mass of gold to 'back' the currency they wanted to create. The Baroque Trilogy is less clear as Isaac Newton mints new currency. Does that mean that perhaps Stephenson's opinions were always that currency needs to be backed by something whether it is gold or national borders.

Meanwhile, Terry Pratchett explains why fiat currency works just fine in Making Money.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#77
post #47

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

> The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld You must not have a need to send money to recipients in other countries. I tried every option I could find until giving up in frustration and sending crypto instead. Not denying the negative aspects but it's a privileged position to assert criminality is the only use case.

Yes, this is the only actually legitimate use for it I can think of.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#78

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

The capitalism was going great until actual capitalists got involved!

Right? The whole history of capitalism can be written in terms of "well that's fucked up, how can we patch that hole?"

I used to work for traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a privately held marketplace for commodities and derivatives. It was an extremely capitalist place, and over the years it had evolved extremely tight internal regulations. You just did not fuck with the exchange or with your clearing firm. If you did, could end up a grease spot on the pavement.

All the extreme capitalists I worked with were fine with that. They wanted to keep on making lots of money, and strong regulation created something where people felt safe engaging. That meant high-volume, high-velocity money flows. They were all greedy, but long-term greedy.

I feel bad for the sweet summer children who were like, "We'll invent a money with no regulation and it will be utopia!"

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#79
post #7

This isn't about cryptocurrency at all. It's about the obviously bad idea of transferable digital in-game goods [sold for cryptocurrency]. You don't need the crypto part to see why it's not a good idea, although the model described here (selling loot to other players?) is not the extremely silly one I've heard more often (buy a CSGO skin and wear it in other games!).

I'm actually a big fan of transferable digital in-game goods, although I see why some publishers wouldn't want it.

Real currency resale markets obviously come with a cost to the publishers, who are the original sellers of the good. However, they also have upsides to the publishers and players.

Magic the gathering is a good example because they have two online versions with different approaches.

In Magic The Gathering Online, you can transfer your digital goods. This means there are all kinds of 3rd parties making the ecosystem more efficient. You can buy and sell cards for real cash on dozens of websites, and you can even pay cash to rent expensive cards from bots. All in game purchases are also done in a tradable currency, so in theory, you could play the game without spending a penny with the publisher, but the publisher is still the origin of all consumable game currency.

The publisher also has a 2nd generation online platform, Magic the Gathering Arena. This version has no transferable assets and no financial ecosystem. They capture every penny, but miss out on users who want a financial exit option, and a ton of free publicity and events hosted by businesses operating in the MTGO ecosystem.

I think this is one of the better examples because Magic is already a collectables card game. That said, similar ecosystems have existed in games like eve online, Diablo, ect...

As with most things, I wonder what the value add is from Crypto, but perhaps it is there. I know some games have struggled with duplication and fake goods, which is particularly problematic when people are paying real cash for them. Perhaps crypto can address this issue

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#80

Anyone who has read Cryptonomicon should remember that the hero protagonists went to a lot of effort to secure a large mass of gold to 'back' the currency they wanted to create. The Baroque Trilogy is less clear as Isaac Newton mints new currency. Does that mean that perhaps Stephenson's opinions were always that currency needs to be backed by something whether it is gold or national borders.

As I understand money creation, at least the part created by commercial banks as described in "Bank of England: Money creation in the modern economy" -- https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/m..., that debt-based money is backed by something of value: The promise of the debtor to create something valuable which itself earns money, and more than was used to create it.

.

Here is a tiny story I once heard or read. I know it's only a very simplified, used to show debt based money creation, but such partial stories is all that's possible for this arbitrarily complex story of "money", because it's mostly a mind game of artificial rules. (If anyone can find this story I'd appreciate it, I don't remember where I read it, some book?)

A boy writes on a paper that he gives to his parents the promise to mow the lawn whenever that paper is presented to him to fulfill the promise. He got something in return from them right away, apparently the lawn didn't need trimming at that time so they resorted to the "debt paper". Instead of using it themselves the parents gave it to some neighbors in exchange for something they needed from them. And the neighbors too gave it to yet other neighbors. The promise to mow the lawn had become "money". As soon as somebody actually uses it to get their lawn mown it is destroyed, the "money" is gone.

So, all our debt based money, at least as far as it was created through companies or firms taking it on, is backe by various promises for money-cresting projects, for example

For a business it could be something like "I/we promise to build a factory that builds xyz and markets and sell it to _somewhere_."

For an individual consumer something like "I promise to work hard for ten years to create more value, i.e. make more money than the amount just created for me in advance of my promise."

So all that debt based money we keep using everywhere is not "merely paper without any value", it's backed by people's and businesses signed and certified promises to perform work and/or create measurable value.

Yes actual money is way more complicated, yet I find this story quite revealing. In all sciences we regularly use very simple "stories" too (e.g. the first model of the atom everybody learns, or the second, and third too, all way too simple from the PoV of the physicist, or molecular bonds taught in chemistry, getting more complicated with each iteration of level of education).

As far as I can see having the promise of a human to do something (valuable) is way more useful than anything else when averaging over all contexts. I'm sure one can easily think of specific contexts where something else is more valuable, but pointing it back at humans seems to me to be the most genius way of putting "value" behind the currency. That we have created soooo much more other stuff on top of the idea, for special situations and for special interests, IMO does not detract from it.

Also, that the banks can create money but need to find people willing to sign also looks like some really genius balanced design to me - as an idea, how it is then implemented in practice of course always suffers from the pulls of all the interests from all directions.

We also have a system that puts significant pressure on the debtors to fulfill their promises.

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