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Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

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Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#51

Anyone who has read Cryptonomicon should remember that the hero protagonists went to a lot of effort to secure a large mass of gold to 'back' the currency they wanted to create. The Baroque Trilogy is less clear as Isaac Newton mints new currency. Does that mean that perhaps Stephenson's opinions were always that currency needs to be backed by something whether it is gold or national borders.

Real Newton worked at the mint too, it may not necessarily represent Stephenson's views.

Doesn't Snow Crash have hyperinflation followed by a plethora of private fiat currencies?

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#52
post #22

This reads oddly to me. In particular, I don't see what makes any of this narrative different to anything else you can make or sell. Indeed, most folks that are making money are doing it by selling their labor or thought work. That is, any discussion of "intrinsic value" is doomed to be axiomatic. Things have value largely because we agree for them to have value. And indeed, a ton of "wealth" is built up on the value…

None of that is disputed in the article or the talk, you seem to have missed the point: it's not that the intrinsic value of things "isn't real", but that people were expecting things to have value (in crypto) without a connection to labor, personal experience or needs. Think generative artworks.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#53

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

Criminal Underworld was its best value add. It should have been the selling point all along. The idea that it's a store of value, and argument I've heard my smartest friends make, is testament to the adage "Greed makes man blind and foolish, and makes him an easy prey for death."

it was always the selling point for XMR.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#54

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

The "Wolf of Wall Street" types and various "crypto-bros" didn't "ruin it for everyone". They tarnished the connotation of the word "cryptocurrency", and wasted a lot of people of a lot of money. But their work has been mostly orthogonal to the real work on decentralized networks being done.

> The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld

This conclusion doesn't follow, neither logically nor empirically. [1] The exact opposite actually happened: we went from the vast majority of the volume being a darknet market, to most volume being saving/speculation and non-criminal e-commerce settlements.

[1]: https://twitter.com/malekanoms/status/1626583628099784705

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#55
post #22

This reads oddly to me. In particular, I don't see what makes any of this narrative different to anything else you can make or sell. Indeed, most folks that are making money are doing it by selling their labor or thought work. That is, any discussion of "intrinsic value" is doomed to be axiomatic. Things have value largely because we agree for them to have value. And indeed, a ton of "wealth" is built up on the value…

None of that is disputed in the article or the talk, you seem to have missed the point: it's not that the intrinsic value of things "isn't real", but that people were expecting things to have value (in crypto) without a connection to labor, personal experience or needs. Think generative artworks.

Right, my point is that it seems Stephenson seemed to have originally felt that there was intrinsic value to something. And then starts asking why you and friends would care about the trinkets you can sell, when that is irrelevant. Typically, by definition, you sell things that someone will give you more currency for than you currently value it.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#56
post #22

This reads oddly to me. In particular, I don't see what makes any of this narrative different to anything else you can make or sell. Indeed, most folks that are making money are doing it by selling their labor or thought work. That is, any discussion of "intrinsic value" is doomed to be axiomatic. Things have value largely because we agree for them to have value. And indeed, a ton of "wealth" is built up on the value…

>Same as the paper in my wallet. Except paper money is understood and used by all today to make transactions and thus useful.

I don't feel that is changing my point at all? It is the value others put in that paper that makes it worth trading.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#57
post #47

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

> The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld You must not have a need to send money to recipients in other countries. I tried every option I could find until giving up in frustration and sending crypto instead. Not denying the negative aspects but it's a privileged position to assert criminality is the only use case.

I'd be interested to hear about your specific use case that made crypto better. What were the alternatives? What were the total costs for what you did versus the alternatives?

But I imagine your specifics are quite rare. We've had a long time for crypto get significant market share for retail money transfer and it hasn't happened yet.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#58

I'm somewhat outrageously bullish on cryptocurrency, but still lovingly refer to it as 'fake internet money'.

Why? It has been 15 years. If it were actually useful, it would have been widely adopted by now. Crypto currencies are the Segway of money.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#59
post #35
post #22

This reads oddly to me. In particular, I don't see what makes any of this narrative different to anything else you can make or sell. Indeed, most folks that are making money are doing it by selling their labor or thought work. That is, any discussion of "intrinsic value" is doomed to be axiomatic. Things have value largely because we agree for them to have value. And indeed, a ton of "wealth" is built up on the value…

I think the problem is the scale of the money. No one is worried when people pay $10 for some intangible thing like in-game bling. But NFTs sell for amounts of money people associate with cars or houses, and it gives them icky feelings when other people can throw around money like that.

Well, again, I was not trying to make a defense of crypto. I'm more just not at all clear on what Stephenson was arguing. Trying to come up with intrinsic value reasons on things is doomed to failure. Somewhat obviously so.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#60

Anyone who has read Cryptonomicon should remember that the hero protagonists went to a lot of effort to secure a large mass of gold to 'back' the currency they wanted to create. The Baroque Trilogy is less clear as Isaac Newton mints new currency. Does that mean that perhaps Stephenson's opinions were always that currency needs to be backed by something whether it is gold or national borders.

Lest we forget, The Great Simoleon Caper

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Simoleon_Caper

In the story, the protagonist is an underemployed mathematician who resides in the house of his brother's family in Chicago. The brother, owner of an advertising agency, has won a large contract to create ads for "Simoleons", a form of non-governmental electronic "currency". To launch the product, they plan to give away 27 million Simoleons to the winners of a contest. The contest is based on the long-used format of "guess the number of jelly beans in the container", with Chicago's Soldier Field and 26 other football stadiums as the containers.

so, 1995 cryptobros, sports stadiums, and damn near NFTs.

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