The chance is >0, but beyond that it's just speculation--some of it very fancy, but speculation all the same.
For example, for awhile there was a theory that mass extinction events were correlated to the solar system's orbit as it passed through the galactic plane. That model, which is now largely rejected (per Wikipdia), predicted periodic relative increases and decreases in event rates across time spans down to several millions of years, but pinning down hard numbers was highly suspect even then--among other reasons, our solar system has only completed a couple dozen orbits since forming.
We just don't know enough to be able to say anything reliable except in broad, abstract terms with little meaning or substance. I'm squarely in the multi-planet advocacy camp, but IMNSHO if I or anyone else starts throwing around figures, conclusions, or even deductions, beware.