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Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

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Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#261
post #8

Good. Both Google and Amazon are barreling down the path of democratizing scale and infrastructure with their cloud offerings. It's never been easier to reach millions of users in a short amount of time with your product. These are the companies that will end up ultimately challenging them down the road for talent and potentially even hitting at their core business models of search and commerce (we've already seen hi…

> OpenAI challenging search

Not even close.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#262
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why Google and Amazon would invest all this money in these employees building up their tech and tribal knowledge just to lay them off. Do these companies not expect to grow in the future? Seems like just freezing hiring for a year or two would save you more money in the long run rather than having to rehire and rebuild all this expertise.

Sometimes, you'll hear pundits say that these kinds of layoffs are aimed at "the bottom 5%" or whatever, but who's been around for these cycles knows that lots of good people get cut alongside the actual underperformers. There's also a lot of "last to be hired, first to be fired" in big layoffs, so presumably with those people you aren't losing too much tribal knowledge. In some cases, the layoffs were targeted at pa…

> by short-term financial metrics rather than long-term ones. A hiring freeze wouldn't have as dramatic an impact on next quarter's earnings.

In the most recent quarter, Google’s profit was down 34% and it was the fourth consecutive quarter with decrease in profits. How many quarters do you think they should wait out before trying to stem the tide of costs outpacing revenues?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/technology/alphabet-earni...

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#263

Why don't we all just form a cooperative tho. Do we just suck at working together? Is capitalism / money a bigger draw?

99.999% of software developers don't know anything about business, let alone the legal and business complexities of forming a co-op. We're all waiting for someone to come along and figure that out, but so far no one has.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#264
post #58
post #8

Good. Both Google and Amazon are barreling down the path of democratizing scale and infrastructure with their cloud offerings. It's never been easier to reach millions of users in a short amount of time with your product. These are the companies that will end up ultimately challenging them down the road for talent and potentially even hitting at their core business models of search and commerce (we've already seen hi…

I don't understand why Google and Amazon would invest all this money in these employees building up their tech and tribal knowledge just to lay them off. Do these companies not expect to grow in the future? Seems like just freezing hiring for a year or two would save you more money in the long run rather than having to rehire and rebuild all this expertise.

We are all docker containers running on a kubernetes cluster. Can be upscaled or downscaled as needed.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#265
post #126
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why Google and Amazon would invest all this money in these employees building up their tech and tribal knowledge just to lay them off. Do these companies not expect to grow in the future? Seems like just freezing hiring for a year or two would save you more money in the long run rather than having to rehire and rebuild all this expertise.

A lot of people even at Google just do run-of-the-mill stuff. Not everyone is making deep learning artificial big table or some such. A rule of thumb is at any organization roughly square root of employees are critical. So at Google that number would be < 500 people. So even when I consider that layoffs are totally random (unlikely), there would be 40 or so people laid off which could be considered important loss. Th…

I haven't heard the "square root of employees are critical" rule of thumb. I have previously heard of Price's Law - paraphrasing: "half of the output is created by a square root of the organization". But as I understand it, there's not a notion of criticality. What if 80% of your output is critical? What if the n-n^0.5 group is on critical output and your square root group is slinging schlock at high volume?

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bootstrap time.

Never been a better time: lots of disillusionment around the disproportionate amounts of leverage that capital has over even megacorps.

> leverage that capital has over even megacorps

That statement doesn’t make sense. Companies become large (your “megacorp“) because they’re very good at attracting, growing, and applying capital.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#267
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, twitter’s worth about 40% of what it was when Musk bought it. Hardly a success story.

How are you calculating its current value, given its finances are now private and it is not traded on the open market?

Financial institutions that own significant equity in twitter still publish their valuations https://www.axios.com/2023/01/29/fidelity-cuts-twitter-valua...

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#268
post #219
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, twitter’s worth about 40% of what it was when Musk bought it. Hardly a success story.

It’s not worth anything until he sells it. That’s just some imaginary number people are making up to cast aspersions at Elon Musk.

I mean, fidelity has no reason to cast false aspersions at musk especially since they own equity in several of his companies

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/29/fidelity-cuts-twitter-valua...

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#269
I can confirm that the title is true.

To be even more specific, we found that 19 startups were founded by ex-googlers after the recent layoffs. Even better, 1 in 3 of the ex-Googlers that were laid off, joined startups valued at 15M.

Relevant: https://nubela.co/blog/1-in-3-ex-google-employees-in-15-bill...

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#270
post #12

I imagine it is a tiny fraction of the people getting laid off that go that route - imo, most are out applying for jobs. I work for a fortune 50 company - (not faang), on our team we had 2 openings posted back in early November - one for a developer, one for a lead developer (same tech stack) - this was for a fully remote positions, but limited to timezones that mostly overlapped with the USA - we got 3 applicants fo…

Its sad seeing the students coming into the field trying to find work right now. They don't understand why there's no responses or why the corps are not showing up to job events.

The industry has perpetuated the lie that stem means employment, so now we have a surplus of workers in an economic downturn, they're competing for the jobs because there is less capitol to create them.

When the market goes down the corps pull back. All the taxes we pay in infra and education are not returned by them.

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