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Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

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Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#131
post #65

This is great news. Google, Facebook, Amazon are over. You can see the writings on the wall. It's time for the next wave of tech companies.

And what writing is on the wall, exactly, for Amazon? AWS powers the internet. Apple uses it for cloud services, for cryin' out loud -- the largest AWS customer in fact. AWS has more market share than all of its competitors combined . Where is this writing you're speaking of?

I think writing this time is Move along, nothing to see here .

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#132
post #65

This is great news. Google, Facebook, Amazon are over. You can see the writings on the wall. It's time for the next wave of tech companies.

And what writing is on the wall, exactly, for Amazon? AWS powers the internet. Apple uses it for cloud services, for cryin' out loud -- the largest AWS customer in fact. AWS has more market share than all of its competitors combined . Where is this writing you're speaking of?

But where is AWSs moat? It's not enough to have all of the customers. Customers are fleeting and will leave if they get a BBO (bigger, better offer). If you scrap together an AWS migration tool that can pull databases, instances, and lambdas off of AWS and mirror them in your cloud, for less money, you'll probably attract a lot of customers.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally, of the five-ten people I knew throughout the years who ended up at Facebook, all had a very specific personality-trait. Those that I knew who went to Google/Amazon/etc. were more diverse personalities: ambitious, interested in hard problems, wanting a good life, etc. Those going to Facebook though, I'm not sure I can put it in a polite way. Let me just say, in different times and different places I could…

It sounds like you had an interesting observation but it’s not clear to me. Can you state it more plainly? What kind of organization? I have also noticed FBers have a certain kind of personality. Vaguely utopian but removed from reality with a heavy emphasis on hedonism.

Sorry for sounding cryptic, it is hard to pin down exactly, but I somehow see Zuckerberg himself kind of like that; maybe someone who likes technical problems, but sees human relations in a kind of formulaic way, and oblivious to ethical consequences of technical work, not interested in the classics or humanities.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The best minds of a generation that's debatable.

I think GP was paraphrasing a catchy line from a poem. Were Kerouac, Ginsberg, etc. really the best minds of their generation?

IDK but i'm assuming they didn't work at facebook?

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#135
post #12

I imagine it is a tiny fraction of the people getting laid off that go that route - imo, most are out applying for jobs. I work for a fortune 50 company - (not faang), on our team we had 2 openings posted back in early November - one for a developer, one for a lead developer (same tech stack) - this was for a fully remote positions, but limited to timezones that mostly overlapped with the USA - we got 3 applicants fo…

It’s not mutually exclusive. Applying for jobs takes a few hours a week. Maybe a little more if you get a hit. You have a lot of bandwidth to work on an mvp and do bootstrapped startup stuff.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'll be interesting to watch this play out. I know ByteDance has been slurping up some Meta talent, and you don't want someone you lay off to build the company that eventually kills you.

TikTok is also planning layoff in thousands https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34912150

If you buy into the premise that Meta was holding talent just so that other companies couldn't hire them, no longer is, and ByteDance has since picked them up then it stands to reason that ByteDance would be ready to shed the no-so-talented stand-ins they were using previously.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#137
post #3

I imagine severance packages are a big factor here. People laid off by Google might have a full six months or more of severance pay, plus health insurance through Cobra. That's a pretty fantastic opportunity to spend six months on a startup in relative economic safety!

> plus health insurance through Cobra. Nb. using COBRA is often pretty damn expensive, since you're paying the full cost of whatever plan the company uses. It can make sense for some people since it means your deductible and max-out-of-pocket don't reset like they would if you switched to a marketplace plan (and then reset again when you get a new job and another plan) but it's not quite as nice a thing to have as it…

Cobra has this unique advantage that you can turn it on retroactively, so it's actually decently cheap for healthy individuals. You can just plan to not pay for it and then if things go wrong you can incur medical bills and send them to cobra after signing up. Of course you do have to backpay cobra if this happens.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#138
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why Google and Amazon would invest all this money in these employees building up their tech and tribal knowledge just to lay them off. Do these companies not expect to grow in the future? Seems like just freezing hiring for a year or two would save you more money in the long run rather than having to rehire and rebuild all this expertise.

> Seems like just freezing hiring for a year or two would save you more money in the long run rather than having to rehire and rebuild all this expertise. It took Google 6 years from 2012 to double headcount. In that time, revenue went from $50B to $136B (almost triple). Profit from $10.7B to $30.7B (triple). In 4 years from 2018 to 2022, Google more than doubled headcount. In that time, revenue went from $136B to $2…

Because the recruiting process can cost over a year's salary, and that's ignoring the time it takes to get up to the same productivity as other employees once they start.

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#139
> However, new founders may find it harder to tap than those who went before them. A spate of founder scandals at unicorns like WeWork and Theranos have caused investors to dig deeper into a company before throwing money at the latest shiny promise. Market uncertainty only adds to that scrutiny.

These examples made me laugh because they notably didn't increase scrutiny during the last few years. Otherwise, we wouldn't have more recent examples (FTX, among others).

Re: Tech layoffs are feeding a new startup surge

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sad that when I open a thread the first comment I see is cheap cynicism that comes close to trolling, and the replies are even worse. Look at all the stuff this generation of workers have built in big tech — the amazing devices in all areas of the market, the progress in electric cars, the massive scale in compute infrastructure that enables most smaller companies to easily spin up entire regions rather than run thei…

Nah, I think the good and bad aspects should be judged separately, we shouldn't be giving these companies a free pass for the infrastructure contributions they made -- you know which bad regime was also good at building motorways -- I'm grateful for google search and for maps, Facebook and some of the other stuff not so much.

The Holocaust absurdly outweighs the Autobahn, the Nazis were the worst people in history. The net result of big tech has been relatively good (for the average person’s material conditions, the jury’s still out on psychological effects but regardless of anything, it’s not even comparable to the Nazis).
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