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Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

oalexanderdk.substack.com

421–430 of 439 posts

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#421

> "and his recent factually incorrect takes on the Syria gas attacks and Skripal poisoning" I don't know of anything incorrect in Hersh's take on (one of) the Syria gas attacks: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v35/n24/seymour-m.-hersh/who... and I haven't read what he wrote on the Skripal affair.

The CIA narrative on the "Syria gas attacks" have been roundly debunked by the meticulous reporting of Aaron Mate (and others). The even more absurd "Skripal poisoning" incident has completely fallen apart upon only the barest scrutiny. It is sad and disturbing these these completely debunked narratives are still being touted by people as credible. Anyone (rightfully) calling for skepticism and scrutiny into Hersch's…

Skripal poisoning denial is so good man, I've never heard that one before. Especially after one of the guys accused turned out to be a Hero of Russian Federation under a fake name. Found a ria news article with almost exact same wording you used but in russian. Anyway I guess you would say Navalny, Litvinenko were fakes as well. 3% of russians believe in skripal thing, you are preaching to the choir, the real skeptics in russia are the ones saying it is real.

"same skepticism towards CIA/US government" Yeah americans do that all the time and definitely do it the most, but that is also because they live there. maybe its time to take a look in the mirror and start focusing on what your country is doing Stanislav Petrov.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know, right. Historical beefs with both Germany and Russia, a history of competent intelligence organizations, a quality military, and obvious current motivations. Yet, every time I bring up Poland as an option, usually I just get ignored. The time I do get a response, it is usually some story about how only the US has the capability, which is total BS.

Historical grievances aside, no middleman likes being cut out.

Funny you should say that: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gas-starts-flowing-po...

"Gas starts flowing to Poland through new Baltic Pipe pipeline"

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#423

I didn't read Hersh's essay, I did read this and found it logical. BUT independently from these two writeups, the thing that doesn't make any sense is the idea that Russian would blow up their own pipeline. It is an asset they fully control. The idea that they damaged their own asset "to show the world they are serious" or whatever is about as likely as "to threaten Alice, Bob shot off his own foot." Is it possible?…

As I've argued before, the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective. They've lost so much money in trade, their army is shattered, their soft-power is in shambles, and they've pissed off even the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine that used to view them as friends. This is why there was a lot of dissension in the West over a year ago about whether the Russians woul…

> the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective.

It makes perfect sense for Russia to invade, what are you talking about? In one sense its the death throws of a dying nation, in the other its logical national protection of a vital resource - energy. A few questions for you:

- Did you know in 2012 lots of oil and gas was found under Crimea and Donbas? And that US company Shell was preparing to extract it?

- Did you know about the vicious fighting at Stalingrad in WW2 and why the fighting was so vicious?

- Have you heard of "the Volgograd Gap"?

- Have you heard of South Ossetia (and the one next to it, starts with a) and why there was a proxy conflict with the USA in the 2000's there?

The Volgograd gap is the bit of land between Ukraine and the Caspian Sea. All of Moscows energy flows through there. The city used to be called Stalingrad.

It also allows Russia access to its separatist regions in its neighbour Georgia. Those separatist regions put Russia within striking distance of a) the major Georgian port and b) the Georgian capital Tblisi. Guess who tried to join NATO in the 2000s? Georgia.

Zelenskyys second in command is a great geopolitican and he knew this invasion was coming because he knew it was inevitable. There is multiple interviews with him saying as much, and also that they pooh-pooh'd the idea of a Russian invasion to buy time. He knew part of Russias plan was to scare the Ukrainian populace eastward, frustrating the Ukrainians armies effort to reach the front, hence they had to keep even their citizens in the dark to have a fighting chance.

There are other reasons that make this make sense, such as the fact that Russia is facing a demographic crisis thanks to communism gutting it, the Minsk accords being broken, and some other stuff.

I recommend you watch docos and info pieces from the following people to avoid making such silly remarks again:

- RealLifeLore

- Whatifalthist

- CaspianReport

- Good Times Bad Times

- S2 Underground

None of this makes what Russia did and is doing OK by any means, but it explains why they did it.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#424
post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The pipelines are repairable That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. > The pipelines were not in use, yet. NS1 was operational for years, and NS2 was technically too: all the equipment was running and the pipe was pressurized - just turn the tap on. > There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation.…

> That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. They have coating inside. This prevents corrosion for some time. Earlier this year there were reports of a cost estimate of $500 million and a time duration of one year for a repair. One of the pipelines hasn't been damaged, but maybe needs some equipment replaced -> pumps. > NS1 was operational for years "Was". It was…

> Earlier this year there were reports of a cost estimate of $500 million and a time duration of one year for a repair.

So basically like building the pipe part anew.

> There was never any natural gas delivered via NS2

Technically there was. It was pressurized. Meaning it was full of gas delivered up to the tap on the German side.

> If Russia ever wants to sell natural gas (again) via these pipelines

Gosh, I really hope not. I also hope it stops pumping gas through Ukraine and doesn't waste time on Turkish gas hub. Dealing with Europe who acts like this is some kind of privilege is a waste, IMO.

> It is. There is zero chance that Germany will take any gas delivered via these pipelines

You are being categorical at the expense of being realistic. It's been gorging on gas from these pipelines like crazy, while filling the reserves. And it still uses Russian gas via various "latvian blend" like schemes, as Russia continues to pay a huge-ass fee to Ukraine for using old soviet huge-ass pipeline. This implies a huge-ass demand on the other side of that pipe. (It's actually quite fun to observe reiteration of history as the whole anti-NS1/2 deal is so hugely similar to anti-Ukrainian pipeline back in the Soviet era)

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I've argued before, the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective. They've lost so much money in trade, their army is shattered, their soft-power is in shambles, and they've pissed off even the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine that used to view them as friends. This is why there was a lot of dissension in the West over a year ago about whether the Russians woul…

> the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective. It makes perfect sense for Russia to invade, what are you talking about? In one sense its the death throws of a dying nation, in the other its logical national protection of a vital resource - energy. A few questions for you: - Did you know in 2012 lots of oil and gas was found under Crimea and Donbas? And that US co…

And Perun

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#426
post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Detection of what? It's not a secret that somebody blew up the pipeline. Do we have a clear theory of what exactly the conspirators were attempting to conceal?

Obviously, detection of who blew up the pipeline. If you can detect the means, then you have a lead for the culprit. What kind of question is this? All it does is make me think you're being intentionally obtuse. Anyone who blew up the pipeline — or committed any other crime —would try to cover their tracks, unless they were planning to take credit (which they weren't). That's how you always commit crimes!

How exactly does detecting a remote detonation give you attribution? Google this: a lot of different entities do underwater remote detonation. The one thing you wouldn't want to do is to park a big, beaconing Alta-class minesweeper precisely over the thing you later blow up!

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#427
post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. They have coating inside. This prevents corrosion for some time. Earlier this year there were reports of a cost estimate of $500 million and a time duration of one year for a repair. One of the pipelines hasn't been damaged, but maybe needs some equipment replaced -> pumps. > NS1 was operational for years "Was". It was…

> Earlier this year there were reports of a cost estimate of $500 million and a time duration of one year for a repair. So basically like building the pipe part anew. > There was never any natural gas delivered via NS2 Technically there was. It was pressurized. Meaning it was full of gas delivered up to the tap on the German side. > If Russia ever wants to sell natural gas (again) via these pipelines Gosh, I really h…

> So basically like building the pipe part anew.

No, the cost of the Northstream 2 alone was roughly $11 billion. Much of the pipeline could be used, the explosion was only in a small region.

> Technically there was. It was pressurized. Meaning it was full of gas delivered up to the tap on the German side.

It was filled, but nothing was delivered into Germany. There was also no permission given to do that.

> Dealing with Europe who acts like this is some kind of privilege is a waste, IMO.

Russia has all the responsibility. They attacked the Ukraine. It's their choice. It has nothing to do with a 'privilege'.

> You are being categorical at the expense of being realistic.

Realistically Russia has removed themselves from being someone who we want to trade with for at least a decade. They are not a partner and they are not reliable.

Russia started a war against not only the Ukraine, but also against the rest of Europe and they used the energy dependency as a weapon. Russia was preparing for the war for some time.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#428
post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't said it's not name calling, but only that it is not an ad hominem, as the very thing in question is Mr Hersh's credibility. Is it wrong to suggest someone who has made a number of outlandish claims in recent years and is quite elderly is suffering from a degraded mental state, as we all know is wont to happen to the elderly? If, say, Linus Pauling published in the 90s something along the lines of 'I've disc…

Is it wrong to suggest someone who has made a number of outlandish claims in recent years and is quite elderly is suffering from a degraded mental state, as we all know is wont to happen to the elderly? That's not actually the thing you are getting all this flak for - we don't have to decide or agree if it's 'wrong' on some broad scale or whether or not it constitutes a logical fallacy. It's corrosive to the notion o…

Well, perhaps an Internet forum that aims for interestingness and curious conversation should also aim for the intellectual honesty of admitting that the mental faculties of individuals diminish as they age.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget the US breach of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and the Defensive Alliance NATO (and Clinton) deposing Ghadafi after he got rid of his nukes.

“Deposing Ghadafi after he got rid of his nukes” (1) Gaddafi never had nukes, only nuclear material, technology, and some parts of the tech pipeline. (2) Gaddafi never abided by the 2003 treaty and retained some of the nuclear material and equipment (which he had already agreed to export) as of 2009. Even after the 2011 revolution, the IAEA confirmed that Libya still had yellow cake after the revolution (3) NATO wait…

The majority of my statement is accurate, from your own link.

1) Mostly wrong by turn of phrase? Please. "Got rid of his nukes" or "Got rid of his nuclear program that was 3 - 7 years from successfully building a nuclear weapon."

"Gaddafi increasingly sought to normalize relations with the United States, initially focusing on the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Libya."

2) Eventually Gaddafi grew disillusioned with the things that the West offered Libya.[6] He considered it too small of a reward for Libya for giving up its nuclear weapons program.[6] Gaddafi was also dissatisfied at the United States' slowness in normalizing relations with Libya and in pressuring Israel to denuclearize.[6] According to Gaddafi's son Saif, this was one of the main reasons why Gaddafi temporarily suspended shipping Libya's enriched uranium abroad in 2009 like he promised he would in 2003.[6] Gaddafi wanted to use the remains of his nuclear weapons program to gain more leverage.[6]

3)NATO's 2011 intervention in Libya (which led to Gaddafi's overthrow and killing at the hands of anti-Gaddafi forces) would make Iran, North Korea, and possibly other countries more reluctant to give up their nuclear programs and/or nuclear weapons due to the risk of being weakened and/or double-crossed as a result.[6][15].

The "civil war" was fomented by clandestine CIA action providing arms to Libyan opposition as reported by the Washngton Post.

"During the early phases of the Libyan air strike offensive, paramilitary operatives assisted in the recovery of a U.S. Air Force pilot who had crashed due to mechanical problems.[8] There was also speculation in The Washington Post that President Obama issued a covert action finding in March 2011 that authorized the CIA to carry out a clandestine effort to provide arms and support to the Libyan opposition.[9]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Libya

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same. I was hoping for something compelling to refute. This piece is trash and it’s a sad comment on the state of critical thinking (and liberal simping for empire) that it even garnered this much traction on HN.

> liberal simping for empire To me, there are few issues more overlooked than this stuff. Structurally there's no mainstream constituency that'd critique it or even point it out, of course, but still. Crazy under the radar but right out in the open at the same time.

Agreed. It's glaringly obvious and yet libs make such a concerted effort to not acknowledge it. You can see them squirm as soon as you try to present them with the evidence they very intentionally ignore or even the blatant inconsistencies of their reasoning. The "Goodness" of the state has become bound up with their very identities-- not that different than the MAGA crowd's cult of personality.
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