1–10 of 27 posts
"Marginal cost of inteligency and marginal cost of energy are going to trend rapidly towards zero, and those are the major inputs into the costs of everything else except things we want to be expensive like status goods wtvr..."
What is Sam referring to by "status goods", like porches and LVMH bags?
Is art going to be a part of the small amount of things that retain value?
Anyone have thoughts on the subject?
It depends on how you define art. Creativity and intelligence are highly correlated, so if AI capabilities (intelligence) keep going up, it's only a matter of time until AI becomes very good at creating art that is enjoyed and consumed by humans.
On the other hand, with a bit of semantic sleight-of-hand, you could re-define art so that it only includes things made by humans, and try to artificially keep the price high that way. But I don't think it will work the way you expect it to. Rather, art made purely by humans will become a status symbol and it will be expensive not due to being technically superior, but due to its relative scarcity compared to AI-generated art. And the market for it will be much smaller than today, due to the overabundance of AI-generated art.
Stock art, as a clip art or a background image to a web page hasn't been a status good.
Things posted in /r/art (and similar) are not goods but rather adverting and validation.
The key differentiator in this is the craft that goes into the art. I have some photographs hat I've purchased at art festivals that hang on my walls - and some I've taken myself. Those are still status goods. The craft needed to shoot a photo that can be enlarged up to 2' x 6' is quite different than the craft needed to create a digital image that looks good at those resolutions.
(controversial part here)
A lot of hobbiest artists that work for commission are the most threatened as their art hasn't ever been status goods and doesn't retain value. At the same time, the scale that they work in is one offs rather than doing a print run of 250 and selling those framed.
The thing is, I don't particularly want to buy a picture of someone else's cat. And if I can take a picture of my cat and use img2img to make it in to an image that I'd print out at Kinkos and put in a $5 Target picture frame that I'd then put in my bedroom... that's a commission that someone else might not have gotten.
That image will never show up on Antiques Roadshow. It will never be a numbered print that is auctioned off. It doesn't retain any value.
However, that copy of a Peter Lik print that I've got hanging - well, that's a status good. The print cost a bit and the framing cost a bit... and I make considerations about where to hang it in a room so that the sun doesn't shine on it.
Yes, art that involves craft will retain value and will remain in the category of status goods.
Art that is a one off commission is likely to lose what value it had and can be done cheaply without the artist. Art that you buy at an art festival or gallery will be rather unchanged - though the people who are just after "stuff" will likely find it easier / cheaper with AI generation than paying a premium.
AI generation is still a long way from doing fiber art or the physical sense of presence with a impasto painting ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impasto ) - yes, might be able to get the same image digitally, but the paint on canvas isn't there yet (and when it does, it will be interesting - but then the craft will be in the machine doing it rather than the painting - I'd love to have an original print from a Jaquet-Droz automata - not for the artistic quality of the image on paper but what it represents).
Watches, wines, designer anything not made by AI. Check out episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation with regards to exploration of ideas of value when goods come out of a replicator and experiences out of a Holodeck at zero marginal cost.
The value of things are cyclical, especially during times of war and times of prosperity. Everything goes up and down in value.
It seems that Sam is assuming that the current political structure and monetary system will remain intact in perpetuity.
So, I think general purpose computation and tools that you can own, or share with a small group, will be quite valuable in the future.
I don't think he has an understanding of history, or how the economy and monetary systems work in general. The value of things are cyclical, especially during times of war and times of prosperity. Everything goes up and down in value. It seems that Sam is assuming that the current political structure and monetary system will remain intact in perpetuity.
I don't think he has an understanding of history, or how the economy and monetary systems work in general. The value of things are cyclical, especially during times of war and times of prosperity. Everything goes up and down in value. It seems that Sam is assuming that the current political structure and monetary system will remain intact in perpetuity.
History has never had transformative AI. What is coming is unprecedented and has no historical parallel, certainly not once it is very advanced.
Technology simply changes the medium, but the end result remains the same. Transformative AI falls into the category of technology.