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Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

wsj.com

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Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#111

Post by hnfong »

xwdv wrote: post #43
ss48 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In developed countries yes, but as more products, more content, and processing of data is available, it will make it to less developed countries and cater to other cultures, resulting in similar advances there.

That’s just moving goalposts. Developed countries represent the current standard of tech, everything else is just playing catch up, it’s not “progress”.

Karl Marx disagrees.

Seriously, if you're rich enough maybe what you say is true, but I don't think you could say "people’s daily lives have gotten as good as they’re gonna get" until poor people in "developed countries" don't have to worry about basic necessities to stay alive.

Perhaps one could strike a couple countries off the "developed countries" list and call it a day, but that list would be much smaller..

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#112

Post by yeshap »

IdiocyInAction wrote: post #67
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #42

Tech progress is slowing down because all of the entrenched players are protecting their cash cows rather than innovating. I also think that the ability of these companies to capture practically all talented tech employees with inflated salaries has harmed the industry and diminished creativity. The fracturing of these massive conglomerates hopefully brings a cambrian explosion of new tech.

Did you read the article? Tech progress in the areas the article talked about slowed down like 70 years ago.

[dead]

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#113

Post by ss48 »

xwdv wrote: post #43
ss48 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In developed countries yes, but as more products, more content, and processing of data is available, it will make it to less developed countries and cater to other cultures, resulting in similar advances there.

That’s just moving goalposts. Developed countries represent the current standard of tech, everything else is just playing catch up, it’s not “progress”.

Scale is important. If a medical breakthrough can be delivered to 1% of the population vs 50% of the population, that is progress that meaningfully improves the human condition and affects how risk averse we are to different diseases. If we deploy electric vehicles to 5% of drivers vs 100% of drivers, that is going to have a tremendous environmental impact that can benefit everyone.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#114

Post by b34r »

Nevermark wrote: post #104
b34r wrote: post #94

We’re in the Singularity even right now and most of the world doesn’t know it.

We don’t have millions of flying cars yet! Most of what we have today was predicted in science fiction novels and video many decades ago. Even the causes of a singularity were predicted (since they are what created the prediction of a singularity). I.e. AI, quantum computing, etc. The “real” singularity happens at the point in the future where we have no conception what is going to happen next. So the singularity sta…

It’s an S curve of which we are in the early ramping phase. ML is going to change everything

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#115

Post by dredmorbius »

gizmo wrote: post #107
dredmorbius wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34849488 > Archive.Is ( https://archive.today >) defeats most paywalls these days. There are other options such as https://12ft.io >. It's generally presumed that HN readers will be aware of this.

Many people, myself included, would prefer paywalled content didn’t get submitted to HN at all. The quality of paywalled articles is low compared to the other articles submitted and the discussions that follow are significantly worse on average.

Understood, and some sympathies. Take it up with dang, or submit an Ask HN piece.

That said: you have the option of flagging such submissions, provided you're over the fairly modest karma limit, which it appears you are.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#116

Post by Nevermark »

b34r wrote: post #114
Nevermark wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don’t have millions of flying cars yet! Most of what we have today was predicted in science fiction novels and video many decades ago. Even the causes of a singularity were predicted (since they are what created the prediction of a singularity). I.e. AI, quantum computing, etc. The “real” singularity happens at the point in the future where we have no conception what is going to happen next. So the singularity sta…

It’s an S curve of which we are in the early ramping phase. ML is going to change everything

I can agree with the singularity being a continuous transition in time and across people.

The future is becoming less predictable for all of us.

And the fraction of us that study, drive or otherwise understand the biggest changes at any given date are getting fewer.

But it is happening as an exponential toward a critical value. Not an S-shaped curve as there won't be any slowing down.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#117

Post by lcuff »

saurik wrote: post #84
lcuff wrote: post #63

A favorite of mine from an earlier era: "That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced." - Scientific American, Jan 2, 1909

Until the recent fundamental change of making cars electric instead of run on gas, have there really been many other "improvements of a radical nature" since 1909? If you go back and you look at cars from that period they not only look like modern cars, they are made by the same companies. They definitely are less powerful, and yet they have similar miles-per-gallon efficiencies as many larger cars from recent years.

Any given change to a car might by itself fail to seem radical - I agree, yet in the decades since 1909, how cars (and trucks) are used in our world has changed radically, and radically changed our world. Paved roads and freeways, gasoline production, the repair industry, and taking for granted that a person of ordinary means (in first world countries) has the ability to travel dozens of miles to work daily. Foodstuffs can get transported hundreds or thousands of miles and be edible. My parents didn't eat a green leafy vegetable from October to May as children, because such veggies didn't grow locally in Winnipeg.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#118

Post by b34r »

Nevermark wrote: post #116
b34r wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s an S curve of which we are in the early ramping phase. ML is going to change everything

I can agree with the singularity being a continuous transition in time and across people. The future is becoming less predictable for all of us. And the fraction of us that study, drive or otherwise understand the biggest changes at any given date are getting fewer. But it is happening as an exponential toward a critical value. Not an S-shaped curve as there won't be any slowing down.

I see the top asymptotic part of the curve being an Iain Banksian “Culture”. Very very far off, but at a certain point, maybe Kardashev II-III, there will be a gradual plateau.
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