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Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

oalexanderdk.substack.com

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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You're jumping to a conclusion here -- sometimes the journalist does change. Plenty of political journalists go off the deep end at some point in their career. (Prof.) Mark Crispin Miller used to write well-researched essays on the culture of TV, now he believes that Sandy Hook was likely staged and that the standard explanation for 9/11 isn't true. Christopher Hitchens made a significant swerve to the right later in…

Those last two examples indicate you have a tribalistic bias though:

Matt Taibbi and Glenn Greenwald changed their politics which you’re implying impacts their credibility because their friends (fellow members of your tribe) said mean things about that.

Further, why is Christopher Hitchens changing his politics relevant to a discussion about journalist credibility — and even mixed into a paragraph about hoaxes?

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#232

I've read both this paper and the original Seymour Hersh article. I found the abundance of details a bit weird, to be honest, but not enough to discount the credibility of the thesis. On the other hand, this paper is poorly constructed, mostly using straw man techniques and sleight of hands to discredit the original paper. I think it's doing the opposite of what it is trying to achieve, adding free publicity on top.

I don't know about you, but I find these "pro-West" side to be quite specious in their arguments. What idiot really believes that Russia of all people would want to kill their own golden goose ? The argument these geniuses are implicitly making is that either Russians (or more euphemistically "Putin") is a raging lunatic, or that their readers so utterly dim-witted that they'll believe any shit that they'll spin. OTO…

This is no doubts this sabotage was conducted as a "special operation", and the nature of those is usually to remain secret for a long time.

I think Occam's razor is helpful in this case.

And I honestly don't care either way. But, I find the media treatment to be interesting. Most of the big ones don't want to touch it with a ten foot pole.

Why?

They don't hesitate to publish news about UFOs, I don't see why they should be more careful about a Russian pipeline sabotage...

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I've argued before, the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective. They've lost so much money in trade, their army is shattered, their soft-power is in shambles, and they've pissed off even the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine that used to view them as friends. This is why there was a lot of dissension in the West over a year ago about whether the Russians woul…

There is a lot missing from this account such as: The US promising not to expand NATO beyond Germany. The Maidan coup in 2014. The Minsk agreement where Kiev agreed to stop bombing the Donbas but has still killed over 14K people doing so. The Ruble is strong and Russia's GDP will grow more than the UK this year.

> The Ruble is strong and Russia's GDP will grow more than the UK this year.

Not. The economic numbers of Russia are now manipulated by Russia and the West. The value of the ruble in many markets is nearing zero, since Russia can't buy much for it, because it has lost access to those markets. It lacks supplies and needs to invest a lot of money into a war economy. Russia now has a war economy - the big and rising economic activity is running a large war and to dampen the effects of sanctions against Russia.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#234
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about you, but I find these "pro-West" side to be quite specious in their arguments. What idiot really believes that Russia of all people would want to kill their own golden goose ? The argument these geniuses are implicitly making is that either Russians (or more euphemistically "Putin") is a raging lunatic, or that their readers so utterly dim-witted that they'll believe any shit that they'll spin. OTO…

> What idiot really believes that Russia of all people would want to kill their own golden goose ? Putin killed his own golden goose by invading Ukraine. Starting this war has been a disaster for Russia's economic future. Putin either doesn't care about that, or drastically miscalculated. Blowing up the pipeline would be consistent with either mindset.

Blowing up the pipeline is not consistent with either mindset.

Putin very likely miscalculated his "special operation", that does not mean he is completely crazy or stupid.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#235

This guy says that other intelligence agencies like from Norway being involved is evidence that is not all that secret. In reality, Congressional offices are sieves for intel though unlike Foreign intel agencies on the other hand which are professionals. He then complains that publicly available ship and aircraft data don’t line up as if they would use publicly tracked craft for a secret operation. No holes have been…

One of the central claims of Hersh’s story is that it was done using publicly tracked craft during a prominent and highly observed training exercise… on purpose. Supposedly because it’s cover to be in the area at all, it’s a benign explanation for when someone suspects something. No need to do any funny business turning off transponders, if you were doing it this way, you’d want the transponders on. When you read that and then find out the ships claimed to have been used weren't even there, then yes, it does blow a hole in the credibility of the source. At best it is some Army veteran or someone like that, speculating from the outside, because the story does not line up with the facts and they don’t offer an explanation for why that’s the case. And then Hersh has reported them as being credible. If he offers more explanations now, it doesn’t ameliorate the stain, because a real source should have known those things and not made factual errors in the first place.

You can’t even twist it into a story that the US deliberately did it incompetently so that reports about it would not be believed. Apparently they involved the Norwegians (telling them about a secret op!) for their expertise in how deep the sea is, as if the US doesn’t have maps of the Baltic Sea floor. Telling your allies what you’re doing in an attempt to prevent them from finding out you did it does not make sense.

It does blow a hole in the credibility of Hersh’s source and his reporting. It brings the information we have about US involvement back to zero, it’s not an argument that they didn’t do it or couldn’t have done it. We all know the Americans are perfectly capable of blowing up a pipeline without leaving evidence. But nobody has any evidence they did it.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I've argued before, the issue here is that invading Ukraine doesn't really make any sense from the Russian perspective. They've lost so much money in trade, their army is shattered, their soft-power is in shambles, and they've pissed off even the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine that used to view them as friends. This is why there was a lot of dissension in the West over a year ago about whether the Russians woul…

[flagged]

> Russia should've done what it's doing in 2014, and saved many more people in the process.

Somehow I doubt Russia's political goals have ever been to save peoples in the collective sense. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulag#Death_toll [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War#Humanitaria... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War#Human_right... [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess_mortality_in_the_Soviet...

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find that write-up dubious. > The fear, however, was that the bombs wouldn’t work if they stayed in the water too long. This is actually what happened with two of the bombs. Seriously? The world's largest military hasn't developed explosive devices that are sufficiently waterproof? > There were still active explosives on the sea bed as the pipes were leaking their gas, which explains why partially complicit Denmark…

>> The fear, however, was that the bombs wouldn’t work if they stayed in the water too long. This is actually what happened with two of the bombs. > Seriously? The world's largest military hasn't developed explosive devices that are sufficiently waterproof? The OP might be referring to the triggering mechanism running out of battery and thus unable to receive the triggering signal, rather than to water exposure.

Perhaps, but again I'd posit that the world's most advanced military wouldn't mind slapping on a few more batteries, just to be sure.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#239
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you've picked up the argument being made there, which is that, being a pipeline, the Norwegian Navy wasn't constrained to one particular spot to disable it: it runs seven hundred and fifty miles under the Baltic Sea. The author of this post is saying Hersh doesn't know what a pipeline, not that the USG doesn't. Try another paragraph. Let's interrogate it. For instance: why is the Norwegian Navy allocati…

Instead of getting lost in minutia, can you explain why Biden, Nuland, Blinken and the rest of the neocon and lib imperialist gang would go on record about getting rid of NS1 and NS2 and then deny they had anything to do with it?

It's not "minutia". These are the details of the story Hersh chose to tell.

It's not a minor question! Implicating the Norwegian Navy drastically increases the number of people that need to keep this secret. Using a warship drastically increases the scrutiny applied to the ship.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#240
post #20

The satellite imagery of the Alta shows the dates June 5, 7, 20, and later (until the Alta is scrapped on the 30th). The BALTOPS 2022 exercises took place June 5–17. So the imagery generally does not provide evidence of the Alta's location during most of BALTOPS 2022.

Is there any evidence that Alta was operational? Last time she moved under own power was 2012. She was towed to the scrapper. If could have moved herself, then they could have saved the cost of the tow.

It doesn’t make any sense that would use ship was bound for the scrapper. They would have to fix the engines and half the other stuff wouldn’t work. People would have noticed ship that never moved moving. There are working ships that could have done the job.

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