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Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#141

Post by simplicio »

floxy wrote: post #118
runnerup wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I personally think its reasonable that the USA blew up the pipeline. Personally I'm at about 75% USA, 20% Russia, 5% someone else. I just also believe that Hersh's article was really, really, incredibly bad.

I haven't followed any of this really at all, but is there a compelling reason why Ukraine isn't at the top of everyone's list? Seems like they would have the motive to prevent Germany from giving-in to Russian demands to keep gas flowing and at the same time hurt Russia. It doesn't seem like it was a highly technical or expensive operation that would have prevented a smaller player from accomplishing it, and in fact…

I think the 2 reasons people don't suspect Ukraine is that:

a) it seems kinda implausible they have ability to blow up the pipe-line, nevermind to do so without being detected in what has to be the most cloesly monitored body of water on the planet.

b) Germany was already backing them. Blowing up the pipeline might make Germany marginally less likely to backslide, but if Ukraine were caught blowing up the pipeline, Germany would almost certainly turn against them. The risk/reward doesn't really make sense.

(FWIW, I think the most likely suspect is the one that doesn't usually get mentioned, that Germany blew it up to demonstrate their resolve regarding Russian sanctions).

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#143

Post by Mizza »

kurthr wrote: post #114
ad404b8a372f2b9 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you qualify Hersh as one of journalism's least trustworthy figures, it's impossible to take the rest of your comment at face value.

Well, in the last decade he's kinda blown it with multiple claims in Syria. Statements that are either unbelievable, undocumented and easily could be (like building locations), or basically falsified have really brought down his trust. Even if he's just getting bad information rather than coming from a particular angle, his readers deserve better vetting of the material. At some point it feels like he's being driven…

Bellingcat is a way for UK/US spies to launder intelligence, a bootleg Wikileaks that won't challenge domestic power structures. I wouldn't point to them if I wanted my point to be taken seriously.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#145

Post by [deleted] »

baybal2 wrote: post #11
ceejayoz wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's in "I want corroboration" territory for me. The big scoops - My Lai, Abu Gharaib - were backed up with hard evidence and other organizations confirming the allegations. Stuff like "the US faked Bin Laden's burial and chucked chunks of him into the mountains" have, thus far, not been.

Abu Ghraib happened, and My Lai happened, and Hersh was first who brought these two stories to light. Neither were some giant secrets, and were previously dismissed as unsubstantiated rumour. Hersh collected enough factoids together to substantiate them enough to become a news story, rather than a military legend.

[deleted]

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#146

Post by XorNot »

eduction wrote: post #106
ad404b8a372f2b9 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you qualify Hersh as one of journalism's least trustworthy figures, it's impossible to take the rest of your comment at face value.

I completely agree. He has a Pulitzer Prize, five Polk awards, two national magazine awards. Broke My Lai, Abu Ghraib, and exposed the Israeli nuclear program. He is easily the most accomplished journalist for several generations. That doesn’t automatically mean this story is right but to dismiss him in emotional and inaccurate terms doesn’t speak to a rational, evidence-based interpretation of the facts.

Seymour Hersh has also gone off the deep end lately. Some current examples[1]:

* the Osama bin Laden raid was faked in a conspiracy with Pakistan and he was actually captured in 2006

* much of the US special forces is controlled by secret members of Opus Dei

* that the US military flew Iranian terrorists to Nevada for training

* the 2013 chemical weapons attack in Syria was a "false flag" staged by the government of Turkey

Being right decades ago doesn't somehow absolve you of having to have verifiable sources and evidence when you go on to make numerous other claims that don't happen and no one can verify.

[1] https://www.vox.com/2015/5/11/8584473/seymour-hersh-osama-bi...

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#147

Post by peteradio »

tptacek wrote: post #32
scythe wrote: post #20

The satellite imagery of the Alta shows the dates June 5, 7, 20, and later (until the Alta is scrapped on the 30th). The BALTOPS 2022 exercises took place June 5–17. So the imagery generally does not provide evidence of the Alta's location during most of BALTOPS 2022.

It's helpful to consider that BALTOPS itself is a batshit cover for one of the highest profile military operations of the last 20 years (it's sort of like the military equivalent of altering the schedule at the San Diego Comic Con to cover a heist), and that it might be hard to even come up with a reason that you'd need an Alta-class ship to pull this off, or really even a military ship at all; a lot of what Hersh is…

Would a "professional" agree to do this work without extensive obvious evidence that it was sanctioned on high? Wouldn't you risk becoming fall guys if you agree to do all this with a minimal crew on a wooden fishing boat? You'd risk being arrested by the local police. I think there is some holistic view on how to get the whole thing to work that might not lead to an obvious minimal solution. Various interests get in the way and add quite a degree of complication.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#148

Post by mannerheim »

pphysch wrote: post #140
mannerheim wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet, somehow his work ends up error-laden and full of holes. Funny how that works out.

That's just not true. A handful of bloggers have nitpicked at it using publicly available information. All of Hersh's big stories received the same initial response of derision, going back to My Lai half a century ago [1]. Hersh, believe him or not, is not relying on publicly available information, but confidential sources. [1] - https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/16262796968...

'Chlorine is just a gas. It's not a chemical warfare weapon. You smell it, you run away.'

Sure sounds like the words of somebody who isn't going senile!

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#150

Post by karaterobot »

molopolo24 wrote: post #27

Let us consider that, even if he was fed false-information and his story discredited we can do limited conclusions from it. It might not affirm "the West blew up Nordstream" but it certainly does not affirm "the West NOT blow up Nordstream".

> it certainly does not affirm "the West NOT blow up Nordstream".

Well yeah, but only because that's included in the statement "we know nothing more than we did before he wrote the article."

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