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Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

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Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#41
post #31

Lots of people saying Toyota missed the boat on EVs. I'm not convinced the technology, infrastructure or battery supply is ready for true mass production of EVs. Toyota makes 10 million cars a year, they'll be selling good EVs soon enough to put Tesla to shame.

If Toyota misses the boat there's not much coming back from that. Once things shake out and brands develop reputations for certain classes of product it takes an act of god to change them.

In the 1970s the US was really good at making fairly luxurious barges but then suddenly the consumers wanted smaller cars. The US automakers already made compacts and small cars but they were value-engineered to within an inch of their lives for people who couldn't afford better. Japanese automakers absolutely killed because they already made "nice cars for nice people" in the form factors people wanted. The US had plenty of nicer cars in production at the time but they weren't form factors anybody wanted. So when you look at the average car that actually got bought and put on the roads the Japanese cars were nicer all around (and priced accordingly). The reputations took off from there and the US automakers got left holding the bag of low end customers and the Japanese carmakers got the high end customers further cementing their place in the midsize and compact car market. Minivans and then SUV becoming the "new hotness" for those buyer demographics and some by all accounts spectacular midsize car platforms of the 80s and 90s (Taurus, Escort, W-body (e.g. Lumina), Neon) still didn't unseat the Japanese car-makers dominance of the higher priced and higher end portions of the midsize and compact car market.

I would not bet against something similar happening to Toyota (and a couple other brands) with the transition to EVs. The big three look poised to capture the pickup and large SUV market. The Koreans look pretty well positioned in the crossover and hatchback segments. Tesla is king of high end sedans right now. I think there's room for another player in the crossover market and some room in the midsize SUV market (Honda Pilot, Ford Explorer type stuff) and there's probably room in the sedan market for a boring non-flashy EV (something Toyota already has a reputation for in the ICE segment). Will Toyota develop an EV or several that's a big enough winner to cement their place beside the current players in those segments? If I knew the answer to that question I'd be buying stocks.

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#42
post #31

Lots of people saying Toyota missed the boat on EVs. I'm not convinced the technology, infrastructure or battery supply is ready for true mass production of EVs. Toyota makes 10 million cars a year, they'll be selling good EVs soon enough to put Tesla to shame.

Volkswagen makes 10 million cars a year and they're pushing hard for EVs now. The main difference between Volkswagen's and Toyota's situation is that Toyota is still in a good position to meet fleet emissions requirements globally because they've been selling hybrids for so long. But Volkswagen needs to pump out EVs now to meet their fleet emissions targets. Fleet emissions fines are simply dead money. You're much be…

“ Toyota has to sell EVs at scale eventually because new car ICE vehicle sales bans now and into the future…”

The EU is pushing that 2035 date. Are other countries following?

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volkswagen makes 10 million cars a year and they're pushing hard for EVs now. The main difference between Volkswagen's and Toyota's situation is that Toyota is still in a good position to meet fleet emissions requirements globally because they've been selling hybrids for so long. But Volkswagen needs to pump out EVs now to meet their fleet emissions targets. Fleet emissions fines are simply dead money. You're much be…

“ Toyota has to sell EVs at scale eventually because new car ICE vehicle sales bans now and into the future…” The EU is pushing that 2035 date. Are other countries following?

Other countries are leading. The UK is 2030. Norway is 2025.

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#44
post #31

Lots of people saying Toyota missed the boat on EVs. I'm not convinced the technology, infrastructure or battery supply is ready for true mass production of EVs. Toyota makes 10 million cars a year, they'll be selling good EVs soon enough to put Tesla to shame.

Their current offering is "meh" from the EV perspective. It doesn't look like their experience with small-battery low-voltage hybrids gave them skills and experience to execute a good BEV. ICE reliability is a different game than batteries, efficiency, and software game of BEVs.

I think there's a high chance that Toyota will be sidelined by EV-first automakers from Korea and China just like US automakers were sidelined by Japanese automakers in the 20th century.

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#45
post #31

Lots of people saying Toyota missed the boat on EVs. I'm not convinced the technology, infrastructure or battery supply is ready for true mass production of EVs. Toyota makes 10 million cars a year, they'll be selling good EVs soon enough to put Tesla to shame.

I think Toyota's issues will just be supply chain around battery packs. They have already been designing and engineering hybrids for a decade or more. I don't think its a revolutionary change for them to remove combustion engine and accessories and go with all electric motors plus larger battery packs. If anything it might simplify internal designs. I'd rather they flow this through their internal typical processes and come out with a product that meets their historical standards rather than any "catch up" to the market.

Once they have a Corolla like EV platform I bet it will outsell most competitors and likely won't have gimmicky features.

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#46
post #31

Lots of people saying Toyota missed the boat on EVs. I'm not convinced the technology, infrastructure or battery supply is ready for true mass production of EVs. Toyota makes 10 million cars a year, they'll be selling good EVs soon enough to put Tesla to shame.

As an owner of BEV (Skoda Enyaq) I agree with this sentiment. My experience is that BEVs are expensive to purchase and expensive to use. This is a niche car for rich people, not Toyota Prius for common folk. I am currently getting rid of the car and going back to ICE because my whole experience was a painful joke.

Toyota is getting ridiculed today, but they will be last one who will be laughing, when prices for BEV and for batteries are currently going up [0]

[0] https://about.bnef.com/blog/increase-in-battery-prices-could...

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#47
post #26
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there’s enough time for them to catch up, look how far the Koreans have come in less than ten years

I'm happy to bet it's not happening. Japan is far too busy fighting amongst themselves and/or catering to themselves first and foremost. South Korea, Taiwan, and China slayed Japan because they played for keeps and pulled no punches. Japan simply does not have the correct mindset to deliberately (re)conquer and succeed. If this sounds brutal and/or flippant, allow me to say that I'm saying this as a Japanese-American…

But don’t Toyota and Honda still own the sedan market in the US (Corolla/Prius/Camry/Civic/Accord)? I’m pretty sure they’re stronger than the Koreans in the compact/midsize SUV market too (CRV, RAV4). Koreans might be stronger elsewhere, not sure.

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This seems similar in a sense. They exist in very similar segments portions of their respective industries serving very similar customer demographics (in North America). Naturally there is going to be quite a bit of evolutionary convergence.

Are there though? Toyota is never perceived as a luxury brand, it is associated with quality, reliability and maintainability. Something that you can hardly say about Apple.

In the US, Lexus is on par with Merc/BMW/Audi

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#49
post #31

Lots of people saying Toyota missed the boat on EVs. I'm not convinced the technology, infrastructure or battery supply is ready for true mass production of EVs. Toyota makes 10 million cars a year, they'll be selling good EVs soon enough to put Tesla to shame.

Toyota is building one of the most reliable and robust cars for the masses. With attitude to build cars they will be competitive for very long.

But Toyota isn’t on top of the reliability rankings.

Re: Shoichiro Toyoda, who turned Toyota into global automaker, has died

#50
post #31

Lots of people saying Toyota missed the boat on EVs. I'm not convinced the technology, infrastructure or battery supply is ready for true mass production of EVs. Toyota makes 10 million cars a year, they'll be selling good EVs soon enough to put Tesla to shame.

As an owner of BEV (Skoda Enyaq) I agree with this sentiment. My experience is that BEVs are expensive to purchase and expensive to use. This is a niche car for rich people, not Toyota Prius for common folk. I am currently getting rid of the car and going back to ICE because my whole experience was a painful joke. Toyota is getting ridiculed today, but they will be last one who will be laughing, when prices for BEV a…

> I am currently getting rid of the car and going back to ICE because my whole experience was a painful joke.

Can you elaborate?

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