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War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

economist.com

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Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#31

Post by colonCapitalDee »

For the many people who are criticizing the article for being pro-war: the article is simply claiming that the energy war between Russia and the West is increasing global prices for fossil fuels and is spurring concerns over energy security. Increased prices for fossil fuels makes green energy more cost competitive and concerns over energy security drive nations to find alternative energy sources. Increases in the cost competitiveness of green energy and the search of nations for new energy sources has increased private and public investment in green energy, speeding up the energy transition.

This simple chain of cause and effect is oversimplified, which is why there's a whole article written about it.

At no point does the article claim "war is good because it's spurring green energy spending", or "we should have more wars to spend more on green energy", or "war has downsides, but upsides like increased green energy spending are worth it".

If you think that any statements that address the positive externalities of war simply shouldn't be uttered (because they glorify war, or encourage war, or whatever), then you're an idiot who thinks everyone else is an idiot.

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#32

Post by JumpCrisscross »

kneebonian wrote: post #30
rippercushions wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me the article is just economics 101. 1) Supply is constrained (by the war and sanctions), demand is fixed to rising, so price goes up. 2) Price goes up, so there is more demand for alternatives, including dirty ones (coal) but also green ones (solar, wind, etc). 3) Increased investment in green energy sources will make them more competitive faster than expected and thus spur the transition.

Interestingly enough pretty much the same factors pushed the shale revolution in oil extraction.

> the same factors pushed the shale revolution in oil extraction

The salient difference being the state intervention this time around. Fracking was largely private R&D.

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#33

Post by olivermarks »

'Yet the reality is that the return of brown fuels is a subplot in a much grander story. By making coal, gas and oil scarcer and dearer—prices remain well above long-run averages, despite recent falls—Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given renewable power, which is mostly generated domestically, a significant strategic and economic edge.'

Classic Rothchild/Agnelli Economist - never mind the 'heat or eat' struggling humans, this is really helping the 'renewable power' industrialists...

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#34

Post by dotnet00 »

runarberg wrote: post #12

I don’t know if this is addressed by this article (I cant read it because paywall) but I’m gonna make a leap of assumption—because this is the economist and are likely to be guilty. I’m seeing more and more of a new kind type of climate denialism pop up lately, which I like to call climate optimism . A climate optimist is aware that the climate crisis is real, is caused by humans, and is an existential threat to huma…

I feel like it's telling that you need a break from the internet if someone being optimistic that progress is being made on addressing climate change at all is problematic to you.

You point to Kurzgesagt, and while I'm not much of a fan of them, their most recent video on climate change presents a view that the situation is dire but not hopeless, which is a healthy view to present if you're aiming to convince people to care.

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#35

Post by _kbh_ »

honkler wrote: post #25
qaq wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realise that majority of azov are ethnic Russians who speak Russian ?

[source]?

Where’s your source?. Never seen any real evidence of the azov battalion committing genocide.

What we have seen is evidence and reports of Russians committing heinous war crimes including raping and torturing civilians.

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#36

Post by fragmede »

In the dead of winter - which means fewer daylight hours, cloud cover, and snow cover, solar's going to be pretty inefficient, and so with a huge array you'd only get a little bit of energy out. And critically you also need batteries to time shift the energy to heat during the colder night time hours.

But it's a system that President Putin, or anyone else can't withhold. Relationships change.

LNG from America ain't it.

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#37

Post by stonogo »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #32
kneebonian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly enough pretty much the same factors pushed the shale revolution in oil extraction.

> the same factors pushed the shale revolution in oil extraction The salient difference being the state intervention this time around. Fracking was largely private R&D.

The Department of Energy literally invented modern fracking; see the Eastern Gas Shales Project, which lasted for a decade and a half. Early commercial fracking worked off of shale mapping performed at Sandia National Lab; reference here https://energy.sandia.gov/wp-content/gallery/uploads/FINAL-H... (which research continues).

Finally, the government provided $10 billion in tax cuts for unconventional gas drilling over the past thirty years, so even that private R&D was subsidized.

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#38

Post by haswell »

colonCapitalDee wrote: post #31

For the many people who are criticizing the article for being pro-war: the article is simply claiming that the energy war between Russia and the West is increasing global prices for fossil fuels and is spurring concerns over energy security. Increased prices for fossil fuels makes green energy more cost competitive and concerns over energy security drive nations to find alternative energy sources. Increases in the co…

Assuming one believes your argument, a more charitable conclusion is that some people may be misguided, and a reexamination of their stance may be warranted.

Calling people idiots isn’t going to change people’s minds, and people hold bad opinions about things all the time for reasons that aren’t as simplistic as “they’re an idiot”.

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#39

Post by pydry »

colonCapitalDee wrote: post #31

For the many people who are criticizing the article for being pro-war: the article is simply claiming that the energy war between Russia and the West is increasing global prices for fossil fuels and is spurring concerns over energy security. Increased prices for fossil fuels makes green energy more cost competitive and concerns over energy security drive nations to find alternative energy sources. Increases in the co…

>At no point does the article claim "war is good because it's spurring green energy spending"

Instead it pretends it has significant upsides that are based upon a spurious theory.

Realistically renewables require an intense amount of capital that this war has suddenly made a lot more expensive. This will hamper green energy investment - older plants will be kept running for longer, new green energy plants won't get built. This will not be good for green energy.

The article is just a slightly less crass form of war cheerleading that they probably hope will age better than their 2003 Iraq war cheerleading.

Re: War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition

#40

Post by JumpCrisscross »

haswell wrote: post #38
colonCapitalDee wrote: post #31

For the many people who are criticizing the article for being pro-war: the article is simply claiming that the energy war between Russia and the West is increasing global prices for fossil fuels and is spurring concerns over energy security. Increased prices for fossil fuels makes green energy more cost competitive and concerns over energy security drive nations to find alternative energy sources. Increases in the co…

Assuming one believes your argument, a more charitable conclusion is that some people may be misguided, and a reexamination of their stance may be warranted. Calling people idiots isn’t going to change people’s minds, and people hold bad opinions about things all the time for reasons that aren’t as simplistic as “they’re an idiot”.

I think the disparagement is warranted. Not because it will be effective. But because it helps focus attention away from unproductive comments.
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