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United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

reuters.com

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Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#141

Post by okamiueru »

gspetr wrote: post #110
rhaway84773 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s easier for Putin to change the narrative in Russia than to try and fend off every western power (and many Russians as well) trying to personally assassinate him. Let’s not forget that until a few months ago it was literally illegal to even call this war a war in Russia. But today, it’s not just a war, it’s a defensive ear, if you go by Russian state media (a defensive war that is somehow being fought entirely on…

>war that is somehow being fought entirely on another country’s territory Technically not true. They've proclaimed most of these battlefield territories their own, so that is now a technically correct statement.

Do I understand it correctly, that the argument is that "it's a defensive war", because Putin in effect "called dibs, so it's ours, and we are defending it"?

So, more on how it is sold to the Russian people, rather, than there being anything technically correct about it, right? Because if it's the latter, then I suppose the closes would be "internationally accepted". And, none of the currently occupied regions, including Crimea, is recognized as such.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#142

Post by pshirshov »

vbezhenar wrote: post #120
nradov wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a video recently where a column of Russian tanks was advancing along a road when the lead vehicle was hit by artillery. The others proceeded to ... just stop and wait until they were also hit. Now I'm no expert in mechanized warfare but I think when you're caught by artillery fire on an open road with no cover you're not supposed to sit there and wait to get hit. Advance past the kill zone, retreat, or disperse…

There're hundreds of thousands of soldiers. There're dozens of thousands of tanks and other vehicles. Incompetence is unavoidable and those kinds of situations put this incompetence to focus and hopefully measures will be developed to prevent it from happening in the future.

What tanks? T62? T34?..

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#143

Post by yks »

rjzzleep wrote: post #45
barrkel wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely The consensus military opinion I've read on this is that tactical nukes aren't very useful militarily; troops in the field are too dispersed. If there's a hardened target, then yes, otherwise not great. They then have to be weighed against the costs of crossing that Rubicon. > why they're suddenly so worried about the…

What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory? It doesn't even have a working economy anymore, the US tax payer is paying both the government and the military's salaries. It's most resource rich areas are now in Russian hands. They started with over a thousand tanks, hundreds of jets, got hundreds of soviet tanks from various places, got hundreds of artillery pieces and hundreds of…

> What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory?

Quite interesting question with the timing of this great summary of Russian information operations [1]. An excerpt:

> Russia uses the narrative that Ukraine is incapable of defeating Russia because of inherent power disparities between the two states to mitigate major Russian setbacks or Russian failures to achieve rapid successes in major offensive operations.

[1] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#144

Post by LinuxBender »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #133
LinuxBender wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I wrong to be concerned? I don't think so. Normalcy bias is strong in the public right now and I don't blame people for wanting simple explanations for the recent events. Regarding the balloons my unpopular opinion is that they may have received intel that the spy balloons are to condition the US into complacency and then replace the payload with something else using a later set of balloons. This would never make…

>Russia are approaching the end of their existence as a nation I'm curious why you think that.

There are differing opinions on this but the most complete and eloquent I have heard recently was from Peter Zeihan [1]. I wish people would challenge his takes in the Youtube comments but the only time I have seen that was when he was on Joe Rogans podcast and even then they had nothing to back their statements.

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXtScb_IZdg

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#145

Post by BrandoElFollito »

michaelt wrote: post #82
wrp wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been in several countries where the State Dept has made a habit of advising Americans not to stay. At least with the crowd I hang out with, it is generally seen as crying wolf. On the other hand, back in Soviet times, false arrests were a political tactic. I have a good story about that... I knew a guy who was in the USSR as a grad student in 1968. When the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia, he and his fellow Ameri…

> the State Dept [...] At least with the crowd I hang out with, it is generally seen as crying wolf. If I told you there was a country where you should exercise increased caution because terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, major sporting and cultural events, and other public areas - can you guess what country that would be? That's right, it's Belgium [1] I can't imagine what…

When reading the advisories (I usually read the ones from a few countries, including mine -France), I compare them to the countries I know well and then decide on the actual dangers. Usually they are way off.

The good thing about these advisories is some health stuff : the shots, where to seek help etc.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#146

Post by smegger001 »

digdugdirk wrote: post #19
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

You're not wrong to be concerned, just likely off on the probabilities by orders of magnitude. 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

> Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so.

Yeah well we thought that about the taking of Crimea in the first place, then we thought that about this invasion yet here we are.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#147

Post by smegger001 »

pshirshov wrote: post #138
LinuxBender wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I wrong to be concerned? I don't think so. Normalcy bias is strong in the public right now and I don't blame people for wanting simple explanations for the recent events. Regarding the balloons my unpopular opinion is that they may have received intel that the spy balloons are to condition the US into complacency and then replace the payload with something else using a later set of balloons. This would never make…

> Russia are approaching the end of their existence as a nation Everything seems to be pointing to that, I really hope you are right. > regarding the use of nuclear weapons If they do that they are done. Also I'm not sure if they still have any working nukes. The maintenance is too expensive and I've seen how the things really are in russian science and aerospace industry. I would say that I would be surprised if the…

>If they do that they are done.

unfortunately so are a lot of other people to. If they know they are done if the do a limited exchange then there is not reason not to let the whole arsenal off and go out in blaze of glory and hope the first mover advantage means you took out enough of everyone else nuclear capacity that is survivable for you. hopefully some sane adult in the room is able to remind the would be button pusher that nuclear submarines exist as a second strike and will get them no matter how many icbm launch facilities they took out.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#148

Post by smegger001 »

tacon wrote: post #115
nradov wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's say Russia does decide to use nukes. What would they target? Their main objective in the war is to seize control of Ukrainian energy and agricultural resources; they don't want to turn it into an irradiated wasteland. Using a nuke against Ukrainian military forces would be a waste since they are now dispersed and dug in. Many of those forces are close to Russian forces so a nuclear strike would endanger their o…

>Many of those forces are close to Russian forces so a nuclear strike would endanger their own troops. If one thing is blindingly obvious lately, it is that Russia doesn't care about their own troops, only about winning. Peter Zeihan reminds us that historically Russia needs to lose about a half million men before they consider giving up on a war.

and many of those men are mercenaries, conscripted convicts, and drafted ethnic minorities who they haven't bothered to equip, do the decision makers care about them enough not to nuke them? Would they even count them as a loss?

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#149

Post by dgroshev »

gspetr wrote: post #110
rhaway84773 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s easier for Putin to change the narrative in Russia than to try and fend off every western power (and many Russians as well) trying to personally assassinate him. Let’s not forget that until a few months ago it was literally illegal to even call this war a war in Russia. But today, it’s not just a war, it’s a defensive ear, if you go by Russian state media (a defensive war that is somehow being fought entirely on…

>war that is somehow being fought entirely on another country’s territory Technically not true. They've proclaimed most of these battlefield territories their own, so that is now a technically correct statement.

They even proclaimed a lot of territory they don’t hold as their own, including the entire Donetsk oblast, so it’s “defending” by trying to grab and hold more land.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#150

Post by [deleted] »

smegger001 wrote: post #147
pshirshov wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia are approaching the end of their existence as a nation Everything seems to be pointing to that, I really hope you are right. > regarding the use of nuclear weapons If they do that they are done. Also I'm not sure if they still have any working nukes. The maintenance is too expensive and I've seen how the things really are in russian science and aerospace industry. I would say that I would be surprised if the…

>If they do that they are done. unfortunately so are a lot of other people to. If they know they are done if the do a limited exchange then there is not reason not to let the whole arsenal off and go out in blaze of glory and hope the first mover advantage means you took out enough of everyone else nuclear capacity that is survivable for you. hopefully some sane adult in the room is able to remind the would be button…

[deleted]
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