Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 161 posts

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#121

Post by yucky »

rjzzleep wrote: post #45
barrkel wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely The consensus military opinion I've read on this is that tactical nukes aren't very useful militarily; troops in the field are too dispersed. If there's a hardened target, then yes, otherwise not great. They then have to be weighed against the costs of crossing that Rubicon. > why they're suddenly so worried about the…

What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory? It doesn't even have a working economy anymore, the US tax payer is paying both the government and the military's salaries. It's most resource rich areas are now in Russian hands. They started with over a thousand tanks, hundreds of jets, got hundreds of soviet tanks from various places, got hundreds of artillery pieces and hundreds of…

  > What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory?
The reality is Russia isn't just at war with Ukraine, they are at war in Ukraine but they're fighting against a military backed by NATO. That doesn't mean Russia will lose, it really just depends on how much money and humans NATO wants to send into the meat grinder. As long as it's only Ukrainians dying, people in the US and EU are fine with burning the money.

So it really depends on what constitutes a victory.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#122

Post by irthomasthomas »

kstenerud wrote: post #98
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

The UFOs are mostly spy drones (although it's still to early to say how many of them are - maybe all of them are?). These drones are more likely opportunistic than tactical. Even the US response to them is valuable intelligence, as it has opened up the possibility of a DOS attack forcing the air force to waste missiles (which are not only expensive, but take time to replace). Under Putin, Russia is unlikely to resort…

Spy drones, or weather balloons? I've seen more evidence, so far, for weather balloons. It honestly seems like a really childish conspiracy theory to claim that China is spying on people using the biggest, most conspicuous aircraft imaginable. Slow moving, massive balloons, visible for hundreds of miles, and slaves to the wind. Easy to spot, easy to predict, easy to avoid, and easy to take down.

I'm going to need to see a lot more evidence that these are spying machines.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#123

Post by lostmsu »

gspetr wrote: post #110
rhaway84773 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s easier for Putin to change the narrative in Russia than to try and fend off every western power (and many Russians as well) trying to personally assassinate him. Let’s not forget that until a few months ago it was literally illegal to even call this war a war in Russia. But today, it’s not just a war, it’s a defensive ear, if you go by Russian state media (a defensive war that is somehow being fought entirely on…

>war that is somehow being fought entirely on another country’s territory Technically not true. They've proclaimed most of these battlefield territories their own, so that is now a technically correct statement.

It is not much of a trick of modern annexation, just a lie to feed their own population in order to legitimize jailing of people against the war.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#124

Post by shapefrog »

djaychela wrote: post #114
shapefrog wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> such expensive weaponry if they thought UA had no chance? It seems likely they are betting on a UA victory and all that entails. > And in the event of a potential UA victory Ukraine are not going to win the "war", by any meaningful measure. There are no western countries that assign anything above a 0% probability of victory. The equipment that we are sending is excellent, but it is all old and literally surplus to…

>The equipment that we are sending is excellent, but it is all old and literally surplus to requirements. Can't speak about anything else, but the Challenger 2 Tanks the UK is sending are old or surplus. They're the UK's current main battle tank, and extremely capable.

Challenger 2 entered service with the British Army in June 1998 and the last of the 386 tanks was delivered in April 2002, with an out of service date of 2025.

In 2019, then-British Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt labelled the Challenger 2 as obsolete. Indeed the decommissioning has effectively started with just over 200 remaining, and many of those not in a fit state to be deployed. The plan, announced in 2021, involved upgrading 148 Challenger 2 tanks to Challenger 3s and retiring the remaining 79 vehicles.

As I said above, we are sending extremely effective equipment, but its not the stuff rolling off the production lines at the skunk works. These main battle tanks that are being sent were destined for the scrapyard in the next couple of years.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#125

Post by nicbou »

SOLAR_FIELDS wrote: post #11
nicbou wrote: post #4

Summary: this is due to arbitrary arrests of US citizens, not an escalation of the conflict with Russia.

Is it wrong to assume that the two are not wholly unrelated activities?

When I saw the title, I feared a much scarier message: "sh*t's about to go down".

This is much better.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#126

Post by nicbou »

cpursley wrote: post #84
nicbou wrote: post #4

Summary: this is due to arbitrary arrests of US citizens, not an escalation of the conflict with Russia.

Can you share links/news of any recent arbitrary arrests of US citizens in Russia? I'm not suggesting it's not happening, just that I haven't seen any in the news.

I'm just quoting the article. You can read it and see.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#127

Post by shapefrog »

rhaway84773 wrote: post #60
kypro wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. Is Putin not done politically if RU is defeated in UA, and Crimea is liberated / annexed? > 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

It’s easier for Putin to change the narrative in Russia than to try and fend off every western power (and many Russians as well) trying to personally assassinate him. Let’s not forget that until a few months ago it was literally illegal to even call this war a war in Russia. But today, it’s not just a war, it’s a defensive ear, if you go by Russian state media (a defensive war that is somehow being fought entirely on…

> a defensive war that is somehow being fought entirely on another country’s territory

A bit like Iraq and Afghanistan (and Vietnam, Korea, ...)

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#129

Post by LemmyInThePub »

vbezhenar wrote: post #83
nradov wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine has no chance of outright battlefield victory, however sufficient military aid can keep them in the fight and produce a grinding stalemate like in WW1. The hope is that this war of attrition will eventually lead to regime change in Russia and perhaps a further fragmentation of the country to continue the process started in 1991. Even if Russia holds together politically and continues to occupy parts of Ukrain…

IMO the only regime change likely in Russia will not make you happy. There're some very pro-military leaders arise recently. Putin does not allow for war to go full-scale. Those leaders will. Fragmentation is possible but I don't believe it, at least for now. Russia loses soldiers but they obtain much more soldiers with perfect battle training, they acquire priceless experience as to which weapons are effective and s…

> IMO the only regime change likely in Russia will not make you happy.

Don't be daft!

Any new Russian leader, no matter how hawkish they currently talk, knows full well that Russian forces are depleted and will be incapable of waging a "major" war for many years to come.......

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#130

Post by weard_beard »

yks wrote: post #109
michaelt wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically, the US might hope to turn Ukraine into Russia's Iraq - never any decisive loss, just gradually bleeding soldiers and equipment for 20 years for little benefit, until they get bored and go home. A conspiracy-minded person who thought America blew up the Nordstream pipelines to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas might see a similar benefit to prolonging the conflict.

The US itself is in the state of being always a few years away from taken over by a crowd very sympathetic to the Putin's cause and Putin personally. Prolonging this conflict is therefore also quite risky to the current establishment or whatever you want to call the adherents of the post-WW2 world order.

The US is in the state of being always a few years away from taken over by any interest with money. When the money runs out, it is no longer a few years away.

See: Sam Bankman-Fried.

Post reply on HN