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United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

reuters.com

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Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#51

Post by eunos »

kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

Eh I think it is the people getting agitated instead of NatSec council. Case in point that Chinese balloon spotted in Montana. I think Biden admin want to sweep that info under the rug, but since a local publication in Montana publish it, all hell broke loose.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#52

Post by The_Colonel »

kypro wrote: post #21
rocketbop wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most experts agree the conflict in UA will pick up again in the spring. And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely. It doesn’t seem likely to me, I haven’t really heard that opinion from foreign policy experts on Hoover or the Economist etc. Of course anything is possible but it’s hard to see what would be gained.

I suppose I mean likely as in > 20% chance, not necessary the most likely outcome. RU has said that they will use nuclear weapons if their territory is threatened and UA and RU have territorial disputes. Personally I don't see a situation in which UA is able to take Crimea and RU doesn't launch a tactical nuke. Putin isn't going to allow Crimea to be taken, and I honestly suspect he'd rather risk his life than live w…

> RU has said that they will use nuclear weapons if their territory is threatened and UA and RU have territorial disputes.

Ukraine already "occupies" territory which is part of the Russian Federation according to its constitution.

Also, I don't believe Russia ever said this. Russia has a nuclear doctrine, which basically says that Russia can use nukes if the existence of the Russian state is threatened. (and of course to retaliate against a nuclear strike)

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#53

Post by briffle »

rjzzleep wrote: post #45
barrkel wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely The consensus military opinion I've read on this is that tactical nukes aren't very useful militarily; troops in the field are too dispersed. If there's a hardened target, then yes, otherwise not great. They then have to be weighed against the costs of crossing that Rubicon. > why they're suddenly so worried about the…

What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory? It doesn't even have a working economy anymore, the US tax payer is paying both the government and the military's salaries. It's most resource rich areas are now in Russian hands. They started with over a thousand tanks, hundreds of jets, got hundreds of soviet tanks from various places, got hundreds of artillery pieces and hundreds of…

Opinions quickly changed when this Russian equipment broke down constantly, or flat out did not work, or had key parts stolen while in storage for all these years. It turns out NATO has been equipping to fight the military Russia said it had.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#54

Post by petesergeant »

nicbou wrote: post #4

Summary: this is due to arbitrary arrests of US citizens, not an escalation of the conflict with Russia.

> this is due to arbitrary arrests of US citizens

That's the reason given, although that may not overlap perfectly with "this is due to"

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#55

Post by twoquestions »

kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

> Am I wrong to be concerned?

Fortunately yes.

There are very long and well-respected traditions when it comes to nukes, and despite Russian propaganda and shitposters going on about nuclear tidal waves and other nonsense, serious diplomats have maintained that nuclear policy remains the same, which means they'll only use nukes if there's an existential threat to Russia (which getting their ass handed to them in Ukraine is not), or enemy nuclear strike (which we aren't about to do).

Here's a deep dive from someone smarter than me in these things, it put my mind at ease and I hope it works for you too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxOO0hCCSk4

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#56

Post by LinuxBender »

kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

Am I wrong to be concerned?

I don't think so. Normalcy bias is strong in the public right now and I don't blame people for wanting simple explanations for the recent events.

Regarding the balloons my unpopular opinion is that they may have received intel that the spy balloons are to condition the US into complacency and then replace the payload with something else using a later set of balloons. This would never make it into the news. Given that the military have recently been given pre-approval to take down anything that is deemed to be a threat that tells me there are more chess pieces in motion than we are aware of.

Regarding Russia I see a lot of comments about Russia never possibly using nukes. Adding to my unpopular opinions nobody can say that with confidence. Russia are approaching the end of their existence as a nation and are losing the numbers needed to fight their traditional methods of kinetic warfare and the only option left on the table is nukes. They just need an excuse. Existential threat has been the repeat narrative from the Kremlin and that is the legal language written into their laws regarding the use of nuclear weapons.

I can't speak for anyone else but I will do my best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#57

Post by The_Colonel »

rjzzleep wrote: post #45
barrkel wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely The consensus military opinion I've read on this is that tactical nukes aren't very useful militarily; troops in the field are too dispersed. If there's a hardened target, then yes, otherwise not great. They then have to be weighed against the costs of crossing that Rubicon. > why they're suddenly so worried about the…

What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory? It doesn't even have a working economy anymore, the US tax payer is paying both the government and the military's salaries. It's most resource rich areas are now in Russian hands. They started with over a thousand tanks, hundreds of jets, got hundreds of soviet tanks from various places, got hundreds of artillery pieces and hundreds of…

> What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory?

A year ago, basically nobody gave Ukraine a chance to hold out more than a couple of weeks maximum. And here we are.

This war is very much undecided and can go both ways. Russian collapse is far from certain, but also far from impossible.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#58

Post by IMTDb »

rjzzleep wrote: post #45
barrkel wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely The consensus military opinion I've read on this is that tactical nukes aren't very useful militarily; troops in the field are too dispersed. If there's a hardened target, then yes, otherwise not great. They then have to be weighed against the costs of crossing that Rubicon. > why they're suddenly so worried about the…

What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory? It doesn't even have a working economy anymore, the US tax payer is paying both the government and the military's salaries. It's most resource rich areas are now in Russian hands. They started with over a thousand tanks, hundreds of jets, got hundreds of soviet tanks from various places, got hundreds of artillery pieces and hundreds of…

> What makes anyone on this platform believe that Ukraine has any chance of victory?

Because for this platform the definition of "victory" is not "did Russia collapse ?" but rather "did Russia loose more than they gained ?". And as time goes by the cost (both economically and politically) of the war is increasing (steeply) and the gains are stalling (at best).

The goal of the western world is not to "beat" Russia, but rather to show that launching any kind of agression against it is not a clever move.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#59

Post by pg_1234 »

SOLAR_FIELDS wrote: post #11
nicbou wrote: post #4

Summary: this is due to arbitrary arrests of US citizens, not an escalation of the conflict with Russia.

Is it wrong to assume that the two are not wholly unrelated activities?

If the US were planning to take a more aggressive stance with Russia, the first move would be to get their citizens/potential hostages out of reach.

Obviously, not everyone will leave, but now the administration can say "they were warned" if they get caught in the political crossfire later.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#60

Post by rhaway84773 »

kypro wrote: post #28
digdugdirk wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not wrong to be concerned, just likely off on the probabilities by orders of magnitude. 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

> 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. Is Putin not done politically if RU is defeated in UA, and Crimea is liberated / annexed? > 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

It’s easier for Putin to change the narrative in Russia than to try and fend off every western power (and many Russians as well) trying to personally assassinate him.

Let’s not forget that until a few months ago it was literally illegal to even call this war a war in Russia. But today, it’s not just a war, it’s a defensive ear, if you go by Russian state media (a defensive war that is somehow being fought entirely on another country’s territory).

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