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United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

reuters.com

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Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#21

Post by kypro »

rocketbop wrote: post #14
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

> Most experts agree the conflict in UA will pick up again in the spring. And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely. It doesn’t seem likely to me, I haven’t really heard that opinion from foreign policy experts on Hoover or the Economist etc. Of course anything is possible but it’s hard to see what would be gained.

I suppose I mean likely as in > 20% chance, not necessary the most likely outcome.

RU has said that they will use nuclear weapons if their territory is threatened and UA and RU have territorial disputes.

Personally I don't see a situation in which UA is able to take Crimea and RU doesn't launch a tactical nuke. Putin isn't going to allow Crimea to be taken, and I honestly suspect he'd rather risk his life than live with the shame of such a defeat.

But this assumes that UA would try to retake Crimea and that's something that will only happen if UA manages to push back RU. And while Zelensky has suggested he wishes to liberate Crimea, whether he will or not probably depends on US support. So there are at least a few conditionals here, but I personally don't think Putin launching a nuke is that unlikely in the event of an embarrassing defeat where contested territory is taken from them.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#22

Post by sobkas »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #12
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

Russia isn’t going to go nuclear unless Ukrainian forces start heading towards Moscow. They would sure like you to think that they would, though.

> Russia isn’t going to go nuclear unless Ukrainian forces start heading towards Moscow. They would sure like you to think that they would, though.

No, Russia isn't going nuclear unless Ukraine will move into Russian territory. While Putin annexed parts of Ukraine to be able to use draft soldiers there, it still part of Russian territory in his mind and minds of many Russians (starting with generals and oligarchs ending with ordinary citizens). So use of tactical nuclear weapons can't be ruled out.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#23

Post by djaychela »

ihatepython wrote: post #18
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

[flagged]

I think you probably need to back up each of those statements with some evidence? Most of them seem to be pretty out there from my point of view, so I think you should back them up with citations and evidence. Otherwise it does look a bit like you're taking 2 and 2 and coming up with 9742123.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#24

Post by avgcorrection »

digdugdirk wrote: post #19
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

You're not wrong to be concerned, just likely off on the probabilities by orders of magnitude. 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

The coast near Moscow?

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#25

Post by haswell »

docdeek wrote: post #6

Is this a big deal because it is the US? FWIW the Australian government has had this sort of warning out for their citizens in Russia for more than a month (at least since 11 January): "If you're in Russia, leave immediately using the limited commercial options available or private means if it's safe to do so. Review your personal security plans and carefully consider the safest means and route to depart.” [1] [1]: h…

FTA, this is not the first time the US has warned citizens about this either, but renewing this warning in the wake of recent events does seem interesting.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#26

Post by mannykannot »

SOLAR_FIELDS wrote: post #11
nicbou wrote: post #4

Summary: this is due to arbitrary arrests of US citizens, not an escalation of the conflict with Russia.

Is it wrong to assume that the two are not wholly unrelated activities?

It is reasonable to consider whether both motives apply, but one should also note that the former alone is sufficient reason for this action (and also sufficient reason for individual US citizens to carefully consider whether they want to be in Russia or its puppet states.)

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#27

Post by rjknight »

avgcorrection wrote: post #24
digdugdirk wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not wrong to be concerned, just likely off on the probabilities by orders of magnitude. 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

The coast near Moscow?

Clunky, but I read that as "the nearest coast to Moscow".

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#28

Post by kypro »

digdugdirk wrote: post #19
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

You're not wrong to be concerned, just likely off on the probabilities by orders of magnitude. 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

> 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so.

Is Putin not done politically if RU is defeated in UA, and Crimea is liberated / annexed?

> 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to launch a nuclear strike. That strike would come from a submarine sitting on the ocean floor off the coast near Moscow. And there's no real countermeasures for those missiles.

It's a good point. I suppose it depends on the nature of the conflict though. Maybe you're right, that in the event of an all out nuclear war there would be no point in trying to achieve a tactical advantage – but does either side really know the exact nature of the conflict well enough to make that assumption at this point? Perhaps both sides just know conflict is likely.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#29

Post by notahacker »

barrkel wrote: post #10
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

> And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely The consensus military opinion I've read on this is that tactical nukes aren't very useful militarily; troops in the field are too dispersed. If there's a hardened target, then yes, otherwise not great. They then have to be weighed against the costs of crossing that Rubicon. > why they're suddenly so worried about the…

I doubt the "spy drones" are of any particular military value anyway. It's more a test to see what will happen if you send something suspicious into your rival's airspace. The Trump administration chose to ignore them, the Biden administration in slightly different geopolitical circumstances chose to shoot them down.

Since this would have been an anticipated outcome, I don't think it really changes anything other than making it clear to China that the present US government won't necessarily overlook everything for the sake of good relations.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#30

Post by vixen99 »

kypro wrote: post #21
rocketbop wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most experts agree the conflict in UA will pick up again in the spring. And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely. It doesn’t seem likely to me, I haven’t really heard that opinion from foreign policy experts on Hoover or the Economist etc. Of course anything is possible but it’s hard to see what would be gained.

I suppose I mean likely as in > 20% chance, not necessary the most likely outcome. RU has said that they will use nuclear weapons if their territory is threatened and UA and RU have territorial disputes. Personally I don't see a situation in which UA is able to take Crimea and RU doesn't launch a tactical nuke. Putin isn't going to allow Crimea to be taken, and I honestly suspect he'd rather risk his life than live w…

Embarrassment is one thing; currently neutral countries reconsidering their trading relationship with Russia in the wake the nuclear red line being crossed, is another.
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