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Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

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Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#231

Post by AnonymousPlanet »

smcl wrote: post #214
AnonymousPlanet wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nord Stream 2 was operational. It was also targeted but one of the pipes was hit twice, leaving the other intact. Up to that point, the Russians clearly communicated to Germany that the flow of gas could be resumed either by dropping the sanctions to "repair" Nord Stream 1 or by opening Nord Stream 2. The reason given by the Russians as to why Nord Stream 1 wasn't running at capacity was technical problems. First it…

Nordstream 2 was not delivering any gas at that point, Germany had refused the offer to open NS2 (after a series of comically timed "repairs" that just happened to require the new sanctions to be broken) and showed no signs of relenting. I think it is an enormous leap to assume that Germany would in this alternate reality inevitably relent and do what amounts to a pro-Russia stance in backpedalling and using NS2, tha…

> Nordstream 2 was not delivering any gas at that point

I agree. I meant "operational" as in "ready to operate". Sorry for causing confusion here.

> I think it is an enormous leap to assume that Germany would in this alternate reality inevitably relent and do what amounts to a pro-Russia stance in backpedalling and using NS2, that would not only fracture the country internally but would cause a foreign policy nightmare at the heart of the EU and NATO.

I live in Germany. Through the entire summer I heard more and more people (and from surpising directions) voice their frustration that Nord Stream 2 wasn't opened in the face of gas shortages. Where I live, every week protests gathered that demanded NS2 to be opened and sanctions to be lifted.

The signs of a weak polar vortex came in around that time https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32985927. Had Europe seen the kind of winter that eventually befell North America, matters would have shifted dramatically. From the outside there was no way of knowing whether an already weak looking German government would not flip whith riots at the door.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#232

Post by smcl »

AnonymousPlanet wrote: post #231
smcl wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nordstream 2 was not delivering any gas at that point, Germany had refused the offer to open NS2 (after a series of comically timed "repairs" that just happened to require the new sanctions to be broken) and showed no signs of relenting. I think it is an enormous leap to assume that Germany would in this alternate reality inevitably relent and do what amounts to a pro-Russia stance in backpedalling and using NS2, tha…

> Nordstream 2 was not delivering any gas at that point I agree. I meant "operational" as in "ready to operate". Sorry for causing confusion here. > I think it is an enormous leap to assume that Germany would in this alternate reality inevitably relent and do what amounts to a pro-Russia stance in backpedalling and using NS2, that would not only fracture the country internally but would cause a foreign policy nightma…

For what it's worth I think your use of "operational" was in this context more correct than mine :)

You've probably got a better feel for public opinion in Germany than I do - I'm over the border in Czech Republic so while we'd have also suffered with a gas shortage, the idea of any concessions to Putin here is nearly unthinkable (people crowdsourced a fucking tank they called "Tomáš" for god's sake :D). I figured Germany might be more forgiving, but would still be very resistant and would be supported in doing so by its NATO allies in any way possible.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#233

Post by smcl »

kcplate wrote: post #230
smcl wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if they were planning to do this they wouldn't have sent Joe Biden out and said "alright, drop a little hint that you're going to bomb Nordstream in the event of a Ukraine invasion". And if they were planning to do so and Biden blurted it out (because ... he's Joe Biden) I imagine any plans to bomb the pipeline would surely have been scrapped as he'd have just given the game away. More realistic is the old ma…

Even a gaffe doesn’t change the core strategic value, it only adds another variable to consider as part of the possible blowback of the operation. Regardless, it’s apparent that even with a Biden gaffe in the mix, if the US was responsible it was done in a way that preserved enough mystery to minimize the blowback.

Right, this is what I'm saying. The situation is anything but clear and I don't think Biden's comments that day tell us anything concrete about this one way or another, and I think it's a mistake that some people think it does.

If the USA didn't commit this, then through their various covert actions over the last half-century they only have themselves to blame for the suspicion that it was down to them.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#234

Post by BWStearns »

DeLeeuw wrote: post #204
BWStearns wrote: post #39

To the people are saying "oh this is just nitpicking", it's not. Hersh's claims are extraordinary[0], and require if not extraordinary evidence, at least evidence that's not sloppy as hell. Given the subject matter it's completely reasonable that he could only have anonymous sources. But when you have anonymous sources then their information has to line up with reality. If it doesn't then you're either getting played…

Hersh' claims are not extraordinary. Someone blew up that pipeline. And the list of possible suspects is very, very short.

.... I devoted a footnote to clarifying this

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#235

Post by daxfohl »

Hersh's story sounds reasonable, but my question is who in this situation would leak it?

Vietnam had thousands of kids drafted straight out of high school witnessing a massacre that might want to get something off their chest. Here you've got an elite strike team of military specialists hand picked for the mission to serve God and Country. What on earth would anybody involved here have to gain by leaking any of this, beyond a court martial and a bunch of strife for those you supposedly serve?

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#236

Post by AnonymousPlanet »

smcl wrote: post #232
AnonymousPlanet wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nordstream 2 was not delivering any gas at that point I agree. I meant "operational" as in "ready to operate". Sorry for causing confusion here. > I think it is an enormous leap to assume that Germany would in this alternate reality inevitably relent and do what amounts to a pro-Russia stance in backpedalling and using NS2, that would not only fracture the country internally but would cause a foreign policy nightma…

For what it's worth I think your use of "operational" was in this context more correct than mine :) You've probably got a better feel for public opinion in Germany than I do - I'm over the border in Czech Republic so while we'd have also suffered with a gas shortage, the idea of any concessions to Putin here is nearly unthinkable (people crowdsourced a fucking tank they called "Tomáš" for god's sake :D). I figured Ge…

The majority in Germany, as far as I can tell, is in favour of sanctions. Not so much because of NATO, but because of all the wrongs that are carried out by Russia and a feeling of helplessness.

However, there's also another thing going on. As I said, there are people protesting. They hold banners calling for peace. But they walk behind a row of martial sounding drums. And if you ask them how peace would be achieved they tell you that military support for Ukraine must be stopped. And if you look at them, you realise you've seen them before. Also the drummers. It's the same people who did pretty much the same walking and drumming against masks and vaccines. That movement was known to be heavily influenced by Russian propaganda and RT in general. The biggest support for this "movement" is seen in the former socialist east, by the way. Which is suprising if you look at the rest of the non-Russian former eastern block and how Russian geopolitics are viewed there. It is not suprising if you know that there is still a lot of distrust towards anything western or American there.

I'm sure that, in between all of that, a winter with failing heating and a crashing industry would have tipped something over.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#237

Post by kcplate »

smcl wrote: post #233
kcplate wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even a gaffe doesn’t change the core strategic value, it only adds another variable to consider as part of the possible blowback of the operation. Regardless, it’s apparent that even with a Biden gaffe in the mix, if the US was responsible it was done in a way that preserved enough mystery to minimize the blowback.

Right, this is what I'm saying. The situation is anything but clear and I don't think Biden's comments that day tell us anything concrete about this one way or another, and I think it's a mistake that some people think it does. If the USA didn't commit this, then through their various covert actions over the last half-century they only have themselves to blame for the suspicion that it was down to them.

I don’t think the gaffe proves it on its own, it’s the gaffe comment, the fact that the US policy towards Russia/Ukraine directly benefited from it’s destruction, there was bi-partisan opposition to the pipeline, and our history in such things that make me believe the US probably did it.

As President Obama famously supposedly said: “Never estimate Joe’s ability to fuck something up”

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#238

Post by fakethenews2022 »

quonn wrote: post #202
fakethenews2022 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. We can continue to hold reservations but that can be considered evidence. It is akin to someone getting killed and someone else prior saying they would kill that person. It doesn't mean they actually did it, but it is suspicion and motive that should lead to further investigations. That Germany and other countries aren't looking into it can also be considered circumstantial evidence.

It‘s not evidence because the pipeline wasn‘t that important anymore. They also looked into it. And finally any of them could have done it themselves as well. Nothing points to the US specifically. For the US such an operation would have a huge amount of risk and they have to gain nothing until the war is over and even after that very little or nothing. (Potentially they can sell their gas - but others as well.) So w…

Did any other nation threaten to take out the pipeline? Was any other nation thanked for taking out the pipeline?

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#239

Post by foverzar »

dogma1138 wrote: post #213
alienicecream wrote: post #144

Can someone explain why some people here are so agitated over a claim that the US did it? Is it hard to believe that US intelligence would do something like this? Besides, if you hate Russia then it's a good thing right?

Because it makes no sense, blowing up NS would achieve nothing the EU was already cutting itself off Russian gas and oil. This operation has no upsides and the downsides are so big that this is probably the only time where the meme of the guy being thrown out of the window for suggesting something in a meeting is actually appropriate… If there was even a whiff of credible evidence that the US was behind it it would’v…

> the EU was already cutting itself off Russian gas and oil

Which in practice only meant gorging on it and storing like crazy, while initiating years-long process of establishing alternative routes (x10 priced LNG obviously doesn't count)

> If there was even a whiff of credible evidence that the US was behind it it would’ve set back US-EU relations by decades if not more and if there was actual undeniable proof it could’ve been the end of NATO

"Could"/"would", yeah, but this is hardly the first time US doing stuff that SHOULD have ended with totally ruined relations, but in fact would be swept under the rug even if credible evidence had resurfaced publicly. They'll just say that it was a private initiative of a few rouge CIA officers, acting independently of the higher command, as it was with operation Gladio.

EU is simply too dependent on US: economically (through trade), in military (EU has no serious military of its own, and almost no military industrial complex of its own - NATO standard is American standard), and in politics (through "international" political organizations).

It's just realpolitik. Burning down a pipeline is bad, but making a fuss about it would be worse.

Regarding what could be achieved, irregardless of who is the culprit:

- There is now no incentive to turn the tap directly to Russia back on

- There is now a ton of incentive to keep Ukrainian gas transportation pipeline safe (which also transports Russian gas to Europe, while Russia is still paying Ukraine for it) - both to Russia and EU.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#240

Post by [deleted] »

bananapub wrote: post #184
sschueller wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US was tapping Angela Merkel's phone. IMO that is as bad for the relationship as blowing up the pipeline. I don't think there is much trust there, just a we have to work together because of NATO and the 50k US troops on Germany's soil.

er...no, tapping every phone of value in the world is not as bad as secretly bombing something. you can trivially know this by comparing the US's response to e.g. every hack china and russia have ever done leading to mean words and maybe economic sanctions, vs the US literally invading two countries - which had nothing to do with the person who did the bombings - after 11/9.

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