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The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

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Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#241

Post by pclmulqdq »

Timon3 wrote: post #234
pclmulqdq wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of people underestimate the persistence factor. A lot of getting lucky is about getting through the times when you are unlucky. If you can weather the storm, the sun comes out eventually. People like stories of people who bet it all on black and win, though, so they think that's the model for success. Really, the way to win is just to not lose.

Persistence is very important, but we also can't ignore the factors allowing for persistence. If two people fail with their startup and only one goes on to found a new one, the two-time founder is not necessarily more persistent. Maybe he has a social safety net and the other one doesn't, maybe he is only responsible for himself and the other one has a family, maybe he happens to get a loan which the other doesn't. T…

Conversely, that safety net is often a product of preparation as much as a product of luck. Sure, kids of rich parents can come back to do startup after startup, but almost all of them fail at it precisely because they can run back to mommy and daddy for more.

For most successful people, the safety net comes in the form of saving money wisely, making the right friends who can give you some work to fill in the gap, or - like my multi-millionaire landscaper - being willing to be underemployed for a period of time while you get back on your feet. If you support a partner or a family, it can be a lot harder to keep yourself safe like this, but you might also have another income to fall back on.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#242

Post by r2_pilot »

cassepipe wrote: post #233
r2_pilot wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apologies, I appreciate your effort but I honestly do not care whatsoever about cryptocurrency and feel like I am subjected to a neverending ad champaign. I evaluated it very early on (a couple of months into bc launch), decided it did not sufficiently cover my 3 main purposes of a currency, and promptly removed all software (and any future regret, unless bc somehow gets to be worth $100mil/satoshi...) from my system…

Huuh this video is not about cryptocurrency... It's about being dumb but still getting rich out of luck.

Ah. That is also something I probably won't have to worry about too much. Thanks for the additional summary, that improves the probability I will watch it.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#243

Post by webmaven »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #106
sidlls wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because few people are objective enough to put aside their deep emotional attachment to the notion that their particular bit of hard work and skill meant nothing without that luck. I’m wealthy now: very wealthy by any standard (mid 7-figure net worth). I came from humble beginnings (nearly homeless frequently as a youth with a single mom), but I am quite intelligent (PhD in physics) and I worked hard. I would have re…

Many people with your net worth grind it out without any windfalls, the product of consistent hard work and reasonable choices over decades. It was always a possibility. Most people don't require an IPO to achieve that. Luck can accelerate that outcome but it is not necessary in any meaningful sense. It requires significantly greater extremes of wealth before luck plays a more frequent role. I know people well into 8…

> It requires significantly greater extremes of wealth before luck plays a more frequent role. I know people well into 8-figures who were never anything more than blue-collar grinders. They worked hard and smart for decades with nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky.

Simply avoiding major adverse life events is also a form of luck, as are a whole host of other environmental factors.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#244

Post by Timon3 »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #241
Timon3 wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Persistence is very important, but we also can't ignore the factors allowing for persistence. If two people fail with their startup and only one goes on to found a new one, the two-time founder is not necessarily more persistent. Maybe he has a social safety net and the other one doesn't, maybe he is only responsible for himself and the other one has a family, maybe he happens to get a loan which the other doesn't. T…

Conversely, that safety net is often a product of preparation as much as a product of luck. Sure, kids of rich parents can come back to do startup after startup, but almost all of them fail at it precisely because they can run back to mommy and daddy for more. For most successful people, the safety net comes in the form of saving money wisely, making the right friends who can give you some work to fill in the gap, or…

I'm sorry to sound harsh, but I fully disagree. This is making the exact same mistake as the GP.

> the safety net comes in the form of saving money wisely

This FULLY ignores the many reasons that make it harder so save money exactly BECAUSE you don't have a safety net. A genius born into a bad environment with some medical preconditions might never be able to save ANY money due to needing to spend it to stay alive.

And that's not even looking at the many very expensive aspects of being poor like preventative care.

> making the right friends who can give you some work to fill in the gap

Right, except that poor neighbourhoods have fewer people able to employ you. So you're either lucky to meet the right people and have them like you (!) or you move out of your poor neighbourhood with the money you don't have.

> being willing to be underemployed for a period of time while you get back on your feet

Okay, and how will this help anyone pay their bills? Should people just say "guess it sucks I can't feed my family, but they just gotta power through, soon it will be worth it"?

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Please don't read this as me saying that things like safety nets are 100% absolutely luck-based. But it's incredible to me just how much people are willing to look at "what they can do for themselves" without being willing to see why the same could be harder for people in different situations.

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