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Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

oalexanderdk.substack.com

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Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#2
It does seem like what happened is that Hersh got a legitimate source (probably in the US or Norwegian intelligence community) who was willing to talk about an existing plan for this kind of operation, and then spun it into a story just declaring that it happened that way.

In point of fact probably every major player in the region had a plan like this. Nord Stream 2 was a huge football for everyone with interest. We just don't know who did it. Maybe we never will. But reporting on a plan doesn't tell us much of anything.

My own opinion: I think it probably wasn't the US, simply because the Biden folks are being so cautious in so many other ways. I mean, you know this kind of thing will eventually get out. Why blow up a gas line but not sent ATACMS? Just doesn't make strategic sense. If we wanted to roll the dice and push harder there are so many more effective ways to do it. I still think the "Putin did it to silence internal dissent" theory sounds best. Could also be more hawkish European governments trying to keep the Germans from waffling.

Edit to note: the fact that the two replies are immediately jumping back into the essentially false[1] "Biden said he would blow up Nord Stream 2" canard in response tells us how uninformative Hersh's story turns out to be. It's not proof of anything.

[1] It was a statement in the press conference before the war started about possible consequences and responses. The context was sanctions and international condemnation, literally no one at the time, even the most Russophilic pundits and anti-imperialist tankies, interpreted this as a military threat.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#3
After years and years of dubious, "anonymous sources" literally making up claims, I have come to doubt the truthfulness of nearly anyone who claims something from an anonymous sources.

Even if it is from a well regarded journalist. This is a consequence of how far the profession has fallen.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#4
While the Seymour Hersh story seems unbelievable to me, so does the initial explanation that was being thrown around, that Russia did this as sabotage, e.g., https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/28/nord-stream-....

The utter stupidity of that idea is along the sames lines as rhetoric, also present in OP, that Russia "weaponized" its gas pipelines. (To use that language, nearly anything can be a "weapon.") I'm going to just go out on a limb here and say that I won't take seriously anything that doesn't immediately address how insane those initial accusations, of Russian sabotage of its own pipelines, were.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#5
post #2

It does seem like what happened is that Hersh got a legitimate source (probably in the US or Norwegian intelligence community) who was willing to talk about an existing plan for this kind of operation, and then spun it into a story just declaring that it happened that way. In point of fact probably every major player in the region had a plan like this. Nord Stream 2 was a huge football for everyone with interest. We…

> simply because the Biden folks are being so cautious in so many other ways.

Biden said publicly they were going to "end it." The reporter who asked the question was even baffled and asked how they could make that claim when the pipeline was in foreign territory. Biden further confirmed that we would have a way to do it if needed.

If they didn't do it, then that press conference and that answer was exceptionally incautious.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#6
This text doesn’t really disproof the Hersh story beyond nitpicking some details and incorrect use of technical languages. (Admittedly it would be hard to disprove; and it is the accuser that has the burden of proof.)

However the big issue is the complete shutdown of media coverage and that the governments of Denmark, Sweden, and Germany all keep their investigations secret.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#7
I regret that Hersh's reporting relied on anonymous officials. That's not a dig on Hersh - this is the standard for journalism on these topics. As a standard it creates a deniability to any story that comes out e.g. "they probably made it up", "the source doesn't know what they are talking about", "the source is influencing the journalist for their own ends".

I think Hersh's article is interesting and useful however. There are specific details that journalists can dig into in the future to find validating hard facts. This may ultimately press a government to cop up to involvement over time, once enough evidence has mounted. That's not to say there aren't possible false leads and inaccuracies in his report.

For the linked article - it commits far more journalistic sins than Hersh's article - in an attempt to take it down. Through continued use of insinuation, analogies, and strawmen the author makes the strongest possible case that there's not merit to Hersh's argument - but for me it comes across as Sophomoric.

In terms of who destroyed the pipeline it is clear that the United States, United Kingdom and Ukraine had strong motives - and the US and UK capability. It's difficult to read commentary that dismisses these motivations out of hand as outrageous. Or at least, I'm coming in with priors that significantly diverge from these commentators.

Re: Blowing Holes in Seymour Hersh's Pipe Dream

#9

While the Seymour Hersh story seems unbelievable to me, so does the initial explanation that was being thrown around, that Russia did this as sabotage, e.g., https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/28/nord-stream-... . The utter stupidity of that idea is along the sames lines as rhetoric, also present in OP, that Russia "weaponized" its gas pipelines. (To use that language, nearly anything can be a "weapon.") I'…

The idea that Russia would use it as a reminder that they could sabotage other pipelines doesn’t seem so far-fetched.
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