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Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

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Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#151
post #32

Apple's underlying economics haven't changed, so they have not had any reason to over-hire in the first place. Amazon, Google, Meta, Shopify and others are all e-commerce based. There was a clear trend that e-commerce had shifted up due to the pandemic, and looked to be permanent. That bet was wrong, so they all had layoffs. Other companies were willing to hire lots of developers because the ROI on devs was good comp…

> Apple's underlying economics haven't changed, so they have not had any reason to over-hire in the first place.

The bloomberg article has a visual showing revenue-per-employee going up from 1.17M/employee (2017-2019) to 2.51M/employee (2020-2022), so ... some of the underlying economics changed somehow?

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#152
post #32

Apple's underlying economics haven't changed, so they have not had any reason to over-hire in the first place. Amazon, Google, Meta, Shopify and others are all e-commerce based. There was a clear trend that e-commerce had shifted up due to the pandemic, and looked to be permanent. That bet was wrong, so they all had layoffs. Other companies were willing to hire lots of developers because the ROI on devs was good comp…

> looked to be permanent

I don't believe that any CEO/CFO with half a brain actually thought this. Sure, things wouldn't return to pre-pandemic levels necessarily, but the COVID-induced state was not going to permanently change human behavior.

> ROI on devs was good compared to low inflation and low interest rates. Then both of those things changed

this is more the reason; the "mea culpa, how could we have known" excuses is just to cover a regression to the mean they knew was eventually going to happen.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#153
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they were selling the same thing, just because more people buy laptops doesn't mean you have to hire more hardware engineers. The design is the same, you scale your outsourced manufacturing instead. With e-commerce you absolutely need more engineers to maintain the software and you need to buy more servers and hire more sysadmins etc.

Is software supposed to be a low marginal cost business? Why would I need more engineers if my site has 50% more traffic?

Strictly speaking, software as a low-cost marginal business originally referred to shrink-wrapped application software. If your website is basically a buy button with a download link, you fall into that category. But now your distribution needs have scaled, so either you hire more people to deal with shipping out CDs, or make sure your website scale. And if your software is the distribution (as is the case for websites, SaaS, cloud apps) you might need more engineers.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Depending on the job and the person it can take a full year to be fully competent in a job." Some of us never become competent.

And if you do become competent, you're soon promoted to another job you're not competent for.

And if you aren't promoted out of your competent zone, you will need to job hop out of your competent zone in order to obtain an actually competitive salary.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#155
I remember when Apple bloated up by thousands, started a score of new products. Then consolidated and combined until they had one uber-product proposal that could do everything. Then they cancelled it and laid everybody off.

Maybe they learned their lesson.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#156
It all comes down to Apple being a very focused company. They know their customers, what they want and they have a much better business model. Steve Jobs once explained it by saying they say no to a lots of things even to those who seem on paper great ideas. All that to stay focus.

On the other hand, Google is all over the places, they are very distracted and confident that they will always be the indisputable kind in ads and search so they didn’t invest much in generating other long term major revenue streams.

Their incentives for promotions is all wrong and has led to tons of products being launched just for the sake of some manager aspirations and empowered, bored engineers who wanted to work on yet another green field project.

They missed the boat on the cloud, and unless they turn the ship very quickly they are gonna leave a big chunk of search and ads to Microsoft.

I’d argue they should also review their hiring strategy that have intoxicated the whole industry and clearly hasn’t led to better results.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#157
post #115

You mean to tell me that Apple could have created thousands of high paying jobs, if only for several years, but didn’t. And this is good? I can never remember who to be mad at. More seriously, I realize this is just clickbait, but I wonder how you could determine objectively which approach (hiring slow and needing to catch up, hiring medium, hiring fast and needing to fire) is “better for business”. Seems very hard t…

Hiring many people and firing them shortly after isn't very productive use of human minds. Those people were doing probably something more valuable instead.

And now they can. It is good that people are being laid off. They can now go do the valuable thing. Perhaps Google's true target should have been 50% layoffs so that they can release people to go work on their valuable stuff instead of working at Google.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon, Google, and Meta all seem to make riskier bets, too. Both strategies make sense—make big, risky investments, or grind out more profits in existing, highly lucrative markets.

> Amazon, Google, and Meta all seem to make riskier bets, too. What are those risky bets I wonder? Meanwhile Apple rolled out a completely custom CPU and transitioned all its hardware to it.

> Meanwhile Apple rolled out a completely custom CPU and transitioned all its hardware to it.

Amazon literally did the same with Graviton (to be fair they acquired a company doing this and used their work as the basis, but still). Google literally developed TPUs in the same timeframe, while also trying a few other things (Stadia, rip, comes to mind).

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#159
post #32

Apple's underlying economics haven't changed, so they have not had any reason to over-hire in the first place. Amazon, Google, Meta, Shopify and others are all e-commerce based. There was a clear trend that e-commerce had shifted up due to the pandemic, and looked to be permanent. That bet was wrong, so they all had layoffs. Other companies were willing to hire lots of developers because the ROI on devs was good comp…

I still can't believe major corporations thought the shift to ecommerce from the pandemic "looked to be permanent". More people than not spent 2 years complaining they couldn't leave the house and rushing out to the pub/shops/holidays the minute restrictions dropped. It was certainly a possibility, but staggers my mind that companies of this size all decided it was a sureity. If I were to be uncharitable, this is the…

I don't think they thought it was permanent as much as no one really knew when it would stop. They had to make a choice whether to hire enough to sustain the current growth rates or scale back growth in which case competitors might be able to capture that market share. No one had a crystal ball regarding when exactly the growth would stop and what the post-growth period would look like, so from that perspective using all available evidence, the play was to capture market share and worry about the future when it happens.

It's a reasonable strategy, the risk being their cost structure gets unbalanced and they might have to lay off people. Contrary to what people here seem to think, laying off people isn't the end of the world, and many of these companies are very comfortable doing it once their growth calculus changes. It was a calculated risk and if we are being honest, it paid off very well for most of the companies which are currently doing layoffs. In many cases the alternative would be to forfeit growth just to potentially save jobs down the line - but what would that look like for companies like Amazon? I don't know if people remember but when the pandemic hit Amazon was scrambling to meet the demands of customers and prime shipping times shot up from 1 day delivery to sometimes more than a week. Those situations would give competitors like WalMart an opening to capitalize on taking market share.

At the end of the day, no one had a crystal ball, and while companies probably shouldn't have assumed whatever growth rates of the quarter were permanent, to ignore the growth and not hire in that environment carried it's own risks. And besides, are the current growth rates permanent with all the macro-economic factors at play? Of course not, most likely the economy will pick up at some point, but companies don't know when exactly that will be, so the prudent thing is to prioritize their workforce on high priority revenue generating products and balance their cost structure around the current economic realities.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#160
post #33

> Apple, meanwhile, was more cautious. Its headcount increased just 20% from 2020 to 2022 At Apples size this is still pretty huge. At least, I thought it was until I saw that Amazon, Meta and Salesforce basically DOUBLED in 2 years. If this data is correct isnt that insane? How can you effectively double orgs of this size over a 2 year period? Its not like a startup with 50 people or something. I guess I was out of…

It was all totally insane. The actual narrative of the layoffs is this: High performing public tech companies went totally insane and doubled their head counts. Everyone else was a cargo cult with an open checkbook so they insanity-squared their head counts. No one could possibly manage such a gigantic influx of knowledge workers so resources were obviously being poorly allocated industry-wide. This first had an impa…

If someone is insane, is their next move sane?

Are they a good investment?

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