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Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

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Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#41

Post by 13years »

dghlsakjg wrote: post #22
braingenious wrote: post #8

I’d rather learn a trade like plumbing or electrical systems. Hell, the richest guy I’ve ever met ran a high-end masonry business.

Go hang out with some older tradies. It absolutely wrecks you body. You can make a decent living, but it isn't the easy money that a lot of people think. A lot of the older tradies I know made sure that their kids went to college if that tells you anything

Yes, if going this route, would be optimal if you own your own business so that over time you can hire help and just manage the business.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#43

Post by throwaway4aday »

dghlsakjg wrote: post #22
braingenious wrote: post #8

I’d rather learn a trade like plumbing or electrical systems. Hell, the richest guy I’ve ever met ran a high-end masonry business.

Go hang out with some older tradies. It absolutely wrecks you body. You can make a decent living, but it isn't the easy money that a lot of people think. A lot of the older tradies I know made sure that their kids went to college if that tells you anything

You gotta get out of doing the work yourself as quickly as possible, it's a young man's game and if you've got the smarts you start your own business to avoid having to do 100% of the manual work yourself.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#44

Post by skee8383 »

Former CDL-A driver here. I fell for the truck driving meme back in 09 when the economy shat the bed, I thought it would be a relatively easy way to earn 50 to 60k per year without any college degree. I was for the most part wrong. The companies lie to get you in the drivers seat, lied about CPM, lied about sign on bonuses and hometime. When it was all said and done i was making roughly $200 more per week driving a truck than i was working retail at walmart, and at least i got to go home and sleep in my own bed.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#45

Post by ehnto »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #14
AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More and more software does not necessarily require more and more developers to write it.

There's plenty of low code / no code solutions right now and somehow programmers are still trucking along (pun intended).

Software developers are often more like solutions specialists who's tool is software, you would need the same skillsets to solve business problems with lowcode, but code is at this point still the tool of choice for those teams of solutions specialists.

Think of it this way, even if it were possible to run an enterprise through lowcode tools, an enterprise would still hire an agency or consulting firm to build it, and so the decision of what tools to use still goes to the specialists.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#46

Post by VLM »

Truck driving is frictional. The management that screwed up something as obvious and profitable as railroads created a frictional desire for diesel trucking to work around their mistakes.

Likewise, strangely, coding is also frictional. The business people who could "write their own code in COBOL" or "write their entire business in excel spreadsheets" would already be programmers if they could program which they can't so they don't AND management will not be up to the task of deploying profitable AI, so coders also have guaranteed work.

To some extent, labor only exists via mismanagement of capital. Humans CLEARLY aren't capable of properly managing a rail logistical infrastructure, so truck drivers have permanent employment. I would theorize that humans aren't capable of deploying AI generated programs, we've barely been able to deploy code written by competent humans, so coders should have permanent employment.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#47

Post by Loughla »

Zetobal wrote: post #15

Learn to X is always the dumpest way to go about fixing labor shortages. I don't want to know how many 2X year olds will burn out coding just because they actually loath it. If the pay goes down there will be an exodus.

100% accurate. I've worked in higher education for years, and it's a constant drum beat of chasing a world that doesn't exist.

20 years ago, it was just all about going to college. Go to college. Get a degree. Get a good job. That was the path.

10 years ago it became, go to college, but pick the right major. Finish that major. Get a good job.

5 years ago it became, go to college and major in engineering or cs. Finish those majors. Make money.

For the last year or two, it has really been all about trades. Welding, plumbing, HVAC, electrical.

It's just a matter of time before those graduates can't get jobs and it swings again. I'm betting ethics and philosophy and/or social work will be the next big push.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#48

Post by bunbunbun »

vbordo wrote: post #34
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a friend who is basically an extremely "toxic capitalist" (to put it simply). He "called" that it wouldn't last that a lot of people were making "big" tech money + not really working 8 hours a day. Maybe that's what this whole "big tech layoff" is. A reset to lower overheated wages. Make 500,000 unemployed programmers compete for paycuts.

Not quite sure why you're getting downvoted. Might be due to your friend's unsubstantiated claim tech workers (on average) are overpaid while underdelivering. However, the core observation is reasonable. Layoffs create desperation in the labor pool which is likely to drive median tech wages down. This benefits companies opex long-term as they restart the hiring cycle over the next couple quarters. Doubtful we're seei…

Agreed but also it’s weird how a lot of lay-off %s are 7% +\-1 though?

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#49

Post by giraffe_lady »

autokad wrote: post #23
logicalmonster wrote: post #7

Are these two points basically true? > As time goes on, businesses are continuing to rely on more software, not less software. > AI tools are very fascinating, but are nowhere near ready to replace most programmers for most tasks. If those points are true enough, developers as a group aren't going away, though some individuals might choose a different path.

I know its not equivalent, but a really simple human can learn to drive and self driving cars haven't mastered that. I don't think its the case that a really simple human can learn to code. since that is harder than self driving, and ML still cant self drive, I am not worried yet.

> I don't think its the case that a really simple human can learn to code.

People always think this about their own trade. But let me assure you that I am dumb as shit and a pretty decent programmer as well. I've taught programming to beginner adults, who were coming out of prison or the military, and out of hundreds I ran across maybe a handful that truly truly were not ever going to be able to learn it to competence.

The main skill at play from my experience is comfort with the state of not having a clue, and tolerance for frustration. That's an uncomfortable emotional zone for work; people will frequently abandon the pursuit. But that doesn't mean they can't learn it.

It's like playing a violin or something: you could, anyone could if they put the hundreds of hours in. Who does put those hours in may be a self-selecting group, but it doesn't mean there's anything inherent in the skill itself that limits who can learn it.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#50

Post by pwinnski »

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #6
bunbunbun wrote: post #2

If anything I think those being laid off right now will be sought after in areas that want tech sector quality but have not been able pay tech sector wages. Government jobs, education, nonprofits, all have lots of openings right now.

I have a friend who is basically an extremely "toxic capitalist" (to put it simply). He "called" that it wouldn't last that a lot of people were making "big" tech money + not really working 8 hours a day. Maybe that's what this whole "big tech layoff" is. A reset to lower overheated wages. Make 500,000 unemployed programmers compete for paycuts.

Your friend has bought into the hype, as a lot of people have. There are very few people making "big tech money" who are not also putting in very long hours. They exist, but are often/usually in the (long) process of being "managed out."

There's no doubt in my mind that a lot of this is a power-play by profitable companies to push back against developers who've collectively gained more power at the negotiating table. Paying dividends and doing stock buybacks while saying "tough economic headwinds require us to lay off 6-8% of you" can only be a power move, as far as I'm concerned.

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