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Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

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Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#31

Post by Loughla »

nicenewtemp84 wrote: post #9
agentwiggles wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have trouble buying this, having seen the salaries being offered by local government agencies looking for devs. I guess if the layoffs depress wages across the board some of it might start to look a _little_ more reasonable, but even in a market that's nowhere near the insanity of big tech salaries, the government salaries on offer are laughably low.

I know people that work in tech at decent companies that can't buy a house. Every non major metro area mechanic, school teacher, city employee I know has a nice home. People should really consider doing lower paying boring work in places your mortgage can be $2000 a month.

>places your mortgage can be $2000 a month.

This is shockingly major metro-area-centric. I want you to know that, and I feel like people on this board really need to understand how HIGH urban and suburban costs are.

In many areas of the country, $2000/month is a seriously frighteningly massive home. For reference - in the middle of rural flyover, our 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom, 1800 square foot, full basement, 2 car garage, 1100 square foot full workshop home mortgage is 15 years at $750/month. We pay that, plus another $400 /month for the 70 acres the home sits on as well.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#32

Post by Ancalagon »

shadowgovt wrote: post #18

Trades are a great idea. ... I don't think I'd specifically recommend "Learn to drive a big rig" though. In addition to the industry itself being a real bad deal for vehicle operators ( https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-sho... ), it's the segment of the transportation sector centered in the crosshairs of disruption-through-automation. The self-driving vehicle companies that laid off were, broad…

TuSimple (automated truck driving) laid off 25%... [1]

[1] https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/21/self-driving-truck-company...

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#33

Post by yamtaddle »

dghlsakjg wrote: post #29
shadowgovt wrote: post #18

Trades are a great idea. ... I don't think I'd specifically recommend "Learn to drive a big rig" though. In addition to the industry itself being a real bad deal for vehicle operators ( https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-sho... ), it's the segment of the transportation sector centered in the crosshairs of disruption-through-automation. The self-driving vehicle companies that laid off were, broad…

Talk to a tradie who was around in 2008. Ask an older tradie how their body is doing. Ask a tradie how often clients don't pay their bills. Ask a tradie how many paid sick days they get. The trades are one way to make a living wage, but they definitely aren't an easy way to do it. There are some union jobs, but largely the trades require you to run your own business in one way or another. Even your average car mechan…

The ones who make Real Money in the trades are mostly in sales & management before their career's too far along (either very high-up in some larger firm, or running their own thing with employees). Their knees tend to be OK.

[EDIT] Actually, that kinda goes for tech workers who aren't in the top part of the trimodal comp graph, too. You either move into management or start your own thing, if you want Real Money (else you'll see a bad mid-career plateau).

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#34

Post by vbordo »

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #6
bunbunbun wrote: post #2

If anything I think those being laid off right now will be sought after in areas that want tech sector quality but have not been able pay tech sector wages. Government jobs, education, nonprofits, all have lots of openings right now.

I have a friend who is basically an extremely "toxic capitalist" (to put it simply). He "called" that it wouldn't last that a lot of people were making "big" tech money + not really working 8 hours a day. Maybe that's what this whole "big tech layoff" is. A reset to lower overheated wages. Make 500,000 unemployed programmers compete for paycuts.

Not quite sure why you're getting downvoted. Might be due to your friend's unsubstantiated claim tech workers (on average) are overpaid while underdelivering. However, the core observation is reasonable. Layoffs create desperation in the labor pool which is likely to drive median tech wages down. This benefits companies opex long-term as they restart the hiring cycle over the next couple quarters. Doubtful we're seeing market-wide collusion on these layoffs but it certainly creates an institutional hiring advantage.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#35

Post by Ancapistani »

Nope.

I know I'm not the only one here who didn't enter tech immediately after college. Once upon a time I was an electrician. I've done framing, roofing, general farm work, I was a pharmacy technician and ran a photo processing lab. My hobbies today include things like machining.

The "problem" in tech isn't so much the availability of jobs, but the relative income. There's nothing I've found that I could do that would replace my income in a reasonable time frame. If I left tech I'd be looking at a >50% reduction in income.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#36

Post by throwaway4aday »

nicenewtemp84 wrote: post #9
agentwiggles wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have trouble buying this, having seen the salaries being offered by local government agencies looking for devs. I guess if the layoffs depress wages across the board some of it might start to look a _little_ more reasonable, but even in a market that's nowhere near the insanity of big tech salaries, the government salaries on offer are laughably low.

I know people that work in tech at decent companies that can't buy a house. Every non major metro area mechanic, school teacher, city employee I know has a nice home. People should really consider doing lower paying boring work in places your mortgage can be $2000 a month.

Yikes, even $2k is a lot more than what I'm paying. Living in a city has its benefits but RIP bank account.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#37

Post by ska »

braingenious wrote: post #8

I’d rather learn a trade like plumbing or electrical systems. Hell, the richest guy I’ve ever met ran a high-end masonry business.

I suspect you mean "owned" by ran.

Trades are a decent entry into owning a small business with higher barrier to entry than say a restaurant but still pretty straightforward and can be made revenue stable with a small team (sometimes no permanent team, e.g. some builders). Especially if you grind when you and the business are young, you can end up in a good place fairly predictably.

But mostly people are financially successful here mostly by being business people, not trades people - with all that implies. Sure, there are some people who do well in a strong union, but it's a small fraction of the market.

Many people actually working a job the trades are more likely to end up with health problems and a sketchy retirement outlook.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#38

Post by screwturner68 »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #30
dghlsakjg wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talk to a tradie who was around in 2008. Ask an older tradie how their body is doing. Ask a tradie how often clients don't pay their bills. Ask a tradie how many paid sick days they get. The trades are one way to make a living wage, but they definitely aren't an easy way to do it. There are some union jobs, but largely the trades require you to run your own business in one way or another. Even your average car mechan…

"Just be an electrician! Look how well they're paid!" Sure, be an electrician. But first try working an 8-hour day with your arms above shoulder level half the time.

Show me a sparkie that only works an 8 hour day, it's 12 hours standing on cold concrete.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#39

Post by dgb23 »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #14
AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More and more software does not necessarily require more and more developers to write it.

There's plenty of low code / no code solutions right now and somehow programmers are still trucking along (pun intended).

No code is just "code with a fancy UI, a less powerful language and no or bad integration with common tooling".

It doesn't replace programming, it _is_ programming. It's useful because it makes programming more accessible and in some cases the visual representation has benefits over text.

I see more and more professional fields and application interfaces adopting things like SQL, Python, Notebooks (Jupyter etc.), JavaScript etc. Excel is obviously huge. A ton of technicians that work with physical stuff are also writing code in embedded interfaces or on large screens even. Programming is not a thing only software developers do.

Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

#40

Post by AnIdiotOnTheNet »

ivanbakel wrote: post #24
AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More and more software does not necessarily require more and more developers to write it.

> More and more software does not necessarily require more and more developers to write it. It has so far. We might have expected the massive gains in developer productivity over the last 70 years to have resulted in the demand for new developers slowing down at some point, but it hasn't. In a very typical way, more supply just gets eaten up by more demand - if at any point we can afford to have fewer developers, we'…

> It has so far. We might have expected the massive gains in developer productivity over the last 70 years to have resulted in the demand for new developers slowing down at some point, but it hasn't.

Recently there has been an explosive transformation from software as a user and productivity focused industry into an adtech one, which has increased demand temporarily.

> In a very typical way, more supply just gets eaten up by more demand

Sure, but increasing supply also means decreasing price by that same model. Decreasing price means less money for developers, meaning less people are incentivized to become developers, leading to equilibrium. Of course, that's a very simplistic model.

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