The recent layoffs are part of a business cycle that we're currently going through. Sooner or later the pendulum will swing the other way and tech companies will be hiring for high growth rate again. I guess this is the first experience of a business cycle for a lot of people in the tech sector, hence the collective "surprised Pikachu face" as the kids would say.
Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
21–30 of 93 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#22I’d rather learn a trade like plumbing or electrical systems. Hell, the richest guy I’ve ever met ran a high-end masonry business.
Go hang out with some older tradies.
It absolutely wrecks you body. You can make a decent living, but it isn't the easy money that a lot of people think. A lot of the older tradies I know made sure that their kids went to college if that tells you anything
Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#23Are these two points basically true? > As time goes on, businesses are continuing to rely on more software, not less software. > AI tools are very fascinating, but are nowhere near ready to replace most programmers for most tasks. If those points are true enough, developers as a group aren't going away, though some individuals might choose a different path.
I know its not equivalent, but a really simple human can learn to drive and self driving cars haven't mastered that. I don't think its the case that a really simple human can learn to code. since that is harder than self driving, and ML still cant self drive, I am not worried yet.
Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#24Are these two points basically true? > As time goes on, businesses are continuing to rely on more software, not less software. > AI tools are very fascinating, but are nowhere near ready to replace most programmers for most tasks. If those points are true enough, developers as a group aren't going away, though some individuals might choose a different path.
More and more software does not necessarily require more and more developers to write it.
> More and more software does not necessarily require more and more developers to write it.
It has so far. We might have expected the massive gains in developer productivity over the last 70 years to have resulted in the demand for new developers slowing down at some point, but it hasn't. In a very typical way, more supply just gets eaten up by more demand - if at any point we can afford to have fewer developers, we'll just end up writing even more software with the excess capacity.
It's hard to imagine a point of diminishing returns on software, since it's so useful in basically every walk of life.
Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
More and more software does not necessarily require more and more developers to write it.
There's plenty of low code / no code solutions right now and somehow programmers are still trucking along (pun intended).
Even with low code tools the percentage of people who will develop the tool will be low compared to the number of users.
Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#26my sister drives a big rig, and my nephew use to do it. Not only is it an extremely cyclical industry, its not for everyone. you have less social life and spend more time sitting than a coder.
One port change can cause truck routes to disappear. also simple routes will probably be replaced by self driving rigs in the future. I would highly not recommend lots of people jumping into that.
however, if this tech rekt lasts, I imagine people will be flocking to the next big thing until that crashes too. its like bulls on ice
Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#27If anything I think those being laid off right now will be sought after in areas that want tech sector quality but have not been able pay tech sector wages. Government jobs, education, nonprofits, all have lots of openings right now.
I have a friend who is basically an extremely "toxic capitalist" (to put it simply). He "called" that it wouldn't last that a lot of people were making "big" tech money + not really working 8 hours a day. Maybe that's what this whole "big tech layoff" is. A reset to lower overheated wages. Make 500,000 unemployed programmers compete for paycuts.
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Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#28Trades are a great idea. ... I don't think I'd specifically recommend "Learn to drive a big rig" though. In addition to the industry itself being a real bad deal for vehicle operators ( https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-sho... ), it's the segment of the transportation sector centered in the crosshairs of disruption-through-automation. The self-driving vehicle companies that laid off were, broad…
Trades are an okay idea. People have this rosy picture of a skilled trades job, with high pay, great benefits, and security from a strong union.
And while that can be true, it is certainly only a very small part of the picture. You can't just say, I'm going to be a plumber, and bam, you're a plumber. You could, conceivably do that with something like rough frame carpentry, but those aren't the high paid trades people talk about. Most trades have required education and/or apprenticeships that aren't paid that great. If you can make it through that, then the pay gets better. But we're talking years, literally years to get there.
Then, once you're doing the skilled trade, you're working long (looooong) hours, long weeks, away from family (sometimes), in the heat and cold and rain.
These are good jobs, but they're not magic make money jobs like people tend to frame them. They're hard, and your career will get cut shorter than it should by either straight up injury or problems of accrued physical debt from repetitive strain.
Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#29Trades are a great idea. ... I don't think I'd specifically recommend "Learn to drive a big rig" though. In addition to the industry itself being a real bad deal for vehicle operators ( https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-sho... ), it's the segment of the transportation sector centered in the crosshairs of disruption-through-automation. The self-driving vehicle companies that laid off were, broad…
Talk to a tradie who was around in 2008.
Ask an older tradie how their body is doing.
Ask a tradie how often clients don't pay their bills.
Ask a tradie how many paid sick days they get.
The trades are one way to make a living wage, but they definitely aren't an easy way to do it. There are some union jobs, but largely the trades require you to run your own business in one way or another. Even your average car mechanic employed by a garage has to provide their own tools at HUGE cost.
I think a lot of people don't realize just how hard it is to be in the trades.
Re: Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?
#30Trades are a great idea. ... I don't think I'd specifically recommend "Learn to drive a big rig" though. In addition to the industry itself being a real bad deal for vehicle operators ( https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-sho... ), it's the segment of the transportation sector centered in the crosshairs of disruption-through-automation. The self-driving vehicle companies that laid off were, broad…
Talk to a tradie who was around in 2008. Ask an older tradie how their body is doing. Ask a tradie how often clients don't pay their bills. Ask a tradie how many paid sick days they get. The trades are one way to make a living wage, but they definitely aren't an easy way to do it. There are some union jobs, but largely the trades require you to run your own business in one way or another. Even your average car mechan…
"Just be an electrician! Look how well they're paid!"
Sure, be an electrician. But first try working an 8-hour day with your arms above shoulder level half the time.