331–340 of 379 posts
What winds me up is the mis-branding, sometimes deliberate sometimes not (which one is worse?!), of basic computer processing as "AI". It's not AI it's an IF statement for crying out loud :-( But this is the industry we're in, and buzzword-driven headlines and investment are how it goes. Actual proper AI getting some attention makes a pleasant change tbh :-)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.05189 but all NNs _are_ if statements!
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I do believe if we are going to get AGI without some random revolutionary breakthrough, to achieve it iteratively, It's going to come through language models. Think about it. What's the most expressive medium we have which is also absolutely inundated with data? To broadly be able to predict human speech you need to broadly be able to predict the human mind. To broadly predict a human mind requires you build a model…
> I do believe if we are going to get AGI without some random revolutionary breakthrough, to achieve it iteratively, It's going to come through language models. Language is way, way far removed from intelligence. This is well-known in cognitive psychology. You'll find plenty of examples of stroke victims who are still intelligent but have lost the ability to produce coherent sentences, and (though much rarer) example…
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But will it? After accounting for the time needed to fix all the bugs it introduces?
Humans introduce bugs too. ChatGPT is still new, so it probably makes more mistakes than a human at the moment, but it's only a matter of time until someone creates the first language model that will measurably outperform humans in this regard (and several other important regards).
This seems to have been the rallying cry of AI-ish stuff for the past 30 years, tho. At a certain point you have to ask "but how much time"? Like, a lot of people were confidently predicting speech recognition as good as a human's from the 90s on, for instance. It's 2023, and the state of the art in speech recognition is a fair bit better than Dragon Dictate in the 90s, but you still wouldn't trust it for anything important.
That's not to say AI is useless, but historically there's been a strong tendency to say, of AI-ish things "it's 95% of the way there, how hard could the last 5% be?" The answer appears to be "quite hard, actually", based on the last few decades.
As this AI hype cycle ramps up, we're actually simultaneously in the down ramp of _another_ AI hype cycle; the 5% for self-driving cars is going _very slowly indeed_, and people seem to have largely accepted that, while still predicting that the 5% for generative language models will be easy. It's odd.
(Though, also, I'm not convinced that it _is_ just a case of making a better ChatGPT; you could argue that if you want correct results, a generative language model just isn't the way to go at all, and that the future of these things mostly lies in being more convincingly wrong...)
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> the underlying results of that learning (and the process of learning itself) could not be any more different To drill down a bit, I think the difference is that the child is trying to build a model - their own model - of the world, and how symbols describe or relate to it. Eventually they start to plan their own way through life using that model. Even though we use the term "model" that's not at all what a neural-n…
Why do we think that inside the 'weights' there is not a model? Where in the brain can you point and say 'there is the model'. The wiggly mass of neurons creates models and symbols, why do we assume that inside large neural nets the same thing isn't happening. When I see pictures of both (brain scan versus weights), they look pretty similar. Sorry I don't have latest citation, but was under assumption that the bigges…
LLMs are not just generalists, but dilettantes to a degree we'd find extremely tiresome in a human. So of course half the HN commentariat loves them. It's a story more to do with Pygmalion or Narcissus than Prometheus ... and BTW good luck getting Chad or Brad to understand that metaphor.
It's been happening for a decade and I've learned to ignore it. Cloud for this cloud for that! Blockchain for this blockchain for that! Big Data for this, big data for that! Web scale all the things! The marketing driven development is exhausting and has done nothing to improve technology. This happened because of 0% interest rates and free money. People have been vying for all the VC money by creation solutions look…
Let's wait until the end of the year and see how much will this wave will hold up.
Its the next hype train since the blockchain/crypto/nft's hype train. The crypto train has arrived at its overheated, decentralized set of train stations that all have remnants of fraudsters, high end GPU boxes scattered about, torn up flyers with the promise of untold riches, people scampering about in the shadows muttering "defi" to themselves, people getting carted off in handcuffs. Where will the AI hype train go…
>Its the next hype train since the blockchain/crypto/nft's hype train. It really isn't. The business use cases even with current tech are pretty obvious. The problem with crypto/blockchain stuff was that it was useless. An emperor with no clothes. Is there a more legitimate argument for why they're similar other than "hype" or am I missing something?
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I think the point is that we have been “meaningfully closing” the gap rapidly, and at this point it is only a matter of time, the end can be seen, even if currently not completely written out in some equations. It does seem like on HN, the audience is heavily weighted towards software developers that are not biologist, and often cannot see the forest for the trees. They know enough about AI programming to dismiss the…
> I think the point is that we have been “meaningfully closing” the gap rapidly In your opinion, how wide is this gap? To claim that it is closing at a meaningful pace brings the implication that we understand the width. Has anyone made a credible claim that we actually understand the width of the gap? > The understanding of the human ‘parts’ are being chipped away, just as quickly as we have had breakthroughs in AI.…
I just don't like falling into the other trap of wasting my day to write a complete paper with citations for some loosely defined internet argument on a subject that is already stacked on a pile of controversy and misunderstandings. I think I could easily find a number of citations that have conflated vocabulary, or re-defined vocabulary. This is my opinion, don't think I need to document a cited cross reference list of these re-defined terms to say this.
Probably this is the same problem that exists between a research paper, and a popular science book. Neither is as detailed and exact or also as high level and understandable as everyone desires. So, yes, these are some opinions, just from a certain point of view, my opinions are more correct than others opinions.
Its part of overall "tech hype fatigue", think of all the waves upon waves, big data, social apps, crypto/web3, self-driving cars, virtual reality, AI etc, At the same time people's actual quality of life or economic standing is going nowhere, there is fragility that bursts in the open with every stress, politics has become toxic and the environment gets degraded irreversibly. Yet people simply refuse to see and they…
Everyone is a temporarily inconvenienced multi-millionaire. They only need to get in on the next big thing and ride their way to a comfortable life at the top.
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Finally, a take on chatgpt and similar LLMs I agree with! I've criticized it whenever it gets brought up as an alternative for academic research, coding, math, other more sophisticated knowledge based stuff. In my experience at least, it falls apart at reliably dealing with these and I haven't gone back. But man, is it ever revolutionary at actually dealing with language and text. As an example, I have a bunch of bor…
Haha that's amazing. This is exactly what I mean, for the right use cases it's absolutely amazing. Good luck with the drama! Make sure to read a summary for the next family meeting haha.
Yeah I will be sure to read it before meeting them, would be awkward if they found out I was using it during one of the disputes, which was whether or not to keep resuscitating Grandma.
ChatGPTs stupid ethical filters made it so I actually had to type my response to that one all by myself.