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Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

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Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#22
Let us think about the defaults in our life:

Windows: Most use Chrome (Google default), the rest use Edge (Bing default).

MacOS: Safari (Google default) and Chrome (Google default)

Android: Chrome (Google default)

iOS: Safari (Google default)

So it looks like the only vulnerability here would be iOS and then possibly PC/MacOS if enough users switch their browser.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#23
post #7

I think it’s interesting to consider why touchscreen mobile phones won out over their predecessors. Touchscreens are the worst interface option. The feedback of feeling a button, or anything made for the job, is better than typing without specific feedback onto a screen. It won out because of you don’t have a set interface it’s bettor. Now for search, chat gpt will likely always be less reliable than a list of result…

Touchscreen keyboards disappear and free up their real estate. That’s the main advantage on phones.

Yep! And people just want big screens to view content.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#24

It's been a while since they stopped innovating. Although Google, Maps, Youtube are of daily use they are monetized exclusively by advertising which is annoying and hated by many. It has been many years since Google has launched an innovative new product. I don't think ChatGPT will gain daily traction after this hype. Anyway we could say that MSFT and AMZN have demostrated more power to innovate with different busine…

>It has been many years since Google has launched an innovative new product.

Stadia launched in 2019.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#26

The gaming of SEO has been quietly destroying the utility of search writ large as a mechanism for quite a while. Over the last year, its become palpable. Google has such utility in this regard that in some cases, a hallucinating lie-machine offers better answer than an index of what information is available on the internet. This issue with with Googles failure to respond to the deluge of SEO driven content in their s…

I can't wait for people to switch over from search engine optimization to AI model optimization: figuring out what kind of content you need to produce in order for Google's and OpenAI's models to deliver your message as gospel.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#27

The gaming of SEO has been quietly destroying the utility of search writ large as a mechanism for quite a while. Over the last year, its become palpable. Google has such utility in this regard that in some cases, a hallucinating lie-machine offers better answer than an index of what information is available on the internet. This issue with with Googles failure to respond to the deluge of SEO driven content in their s…

Agreed, I am looking forward to the disruption of google.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#28
Yes and no.

Yes, finally we are going to see a shift, but their 'dominance' is not going to necessarily change that much in some kind of 'step function'.

I suggest that Siri is about to get a lot better, and act more like we wanted it to act a decade ago.

As amazing as ChatGPT is, it's actually not that useful for most regular people other than as a more human form of search.

I think Google results will improve quickly enough that whatever MS does will seem novel but not necessarily have some kind of huge consumer impact.

We'll see search for company info and help directories get a lot better.

Remember that both MS and Google are 'etablished' companies, the later a bit slow moving and not firing on all fronts.

Why would anyone think a company that can't get Skype to work, is going to marvel the world with some 'new thing'.

OpenAI folks are on a roll, rapidly trying to make cool looking experiments, focused on 'wowing the world' not on direct revenues. Making that translate into products is another dimension altogether.

The most interesting stuff will come from startups.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#29
post #7

I think it’s interesting to consider why touchscreen mobile phones won out over their predecessors. Touchscreens are the worst interface option. The feedback of feeling a button, or anything made for the job, is better than typing without specific feedback onto a screen. It won out because of you don’t have a set interface it’s bettor. Now for search, chat gpt will likely always be less reliable than a list of result…

>Touchscreens are worse than buttons

Hottest take I've seen on here for a while. In a very specific, very limited set of mobile usecases, buttons may offer a more pleasant experience than a touchscreen. I only say that because there's usually exceptions to any statement, but I can't actually think of one.

Touchscreens didn't win because of some lazy sheep-like consumerism, they won because the product is superior. If Chat-GPT style models defeat traditional search engines it will be because the product is better, not because people are content with a response that "seems correct."

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#30

The gaming of SEO has been quietly destroying the utility of search writ large as a mechanism for quite a while. Over the last year, its become palpable. Google has such utility in this regard that in some cases, a hallucinating lie-machine offers better answer than an index of what information is available on the internet. This issue with with Googles failure to respond to the deluge of SEO driven content in their s…

> This issue with with Googles failure to respond to the deluge of SEO driven content in their searches.

I’d argue that they even encouraged it.

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