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Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

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Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#291
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A case I had right now. Just try to google this: When migrating from Swagger 2 ApiOperation annotation to OpenAPI 3.0 Operation by what attribute is nickname replaced? And then ask ChatGPT ... Google is done

What if I ask ChatGPT who the highest scoring NBA player is? Oops, failed. How about I ask it how many games Jaime Benn has played? Or what the score of the last Dallas stars game was, or when the next one is? What if I ask ChatGPT for a copy of the manual for a meater bluetooth meat thermometer? It literally just told me to Google it. What if I ask which car manufacturers are joining Formula 1, and when they'll be s…

It will answer the following: The highest scoring NBA player is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with 38,387 career points. Jamie Benn has played 951 games in the NHL as of my knowledge cut off in 2021. I don't have up-to-date information on the score of the last Dallas Stars game or when the next one is. Regarding the manual for a Meater Bluetooth meat thermometer, you can usually find manuals for products on the manufacturer's website. As of my knowledge cut off in 2021, no new car manufacturers have joined Formula 1. However, the current teams competing in the sport include Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull Racing, McLaren, and others.

What if I ask ChatGPT: why do people resist new disruptive technologies?

People resist new disruptive technologies for several reasons, including:

Fear of job loss: One of the main concerns about disruptive technologies is that they can lead to job losses, as machines and algorithms replace human workers.

Lack of understanding: Some people may resist new technologies because they don't understand how they work or what benefits they offer.

Threat to existing systems and norms: Disruptive technologies can challenge established systems and norms, and people may resist them because they fear the changes they bring.

Ethical and moral concerns: Some technologies raise ethical and moral questions, such as privacy concerns, and people may resist them as a result.

Financial impact: Disruptive technologies can be expensive to implement, and some people may resist them because they can't afford the costs associated with them.

Habits and comfort: People may resist new technologies because they are used to their existing habits and are comfortable with what they know.

Lack of trust: People may resist new technologies because they don't trust the companies or organizations behind them, or because they don't believe that the benefits of the technology outweigh the risks.

It's important to note that resistance to disruptive technologies is not always a bad thing, as it can encourage companies to address the concerns and ensure that new technologies are developed and used in ethical and responsible ways.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#292
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got it the wrong way around, no? If ads revenue takes a hit, non-ads businesses like Cloud become more important, not less.

And as a GCP customer, you might be worried that GCP prices will go up to make those all important revenue targets, or that some of the lowest engagement GCP services will be EOL'd.

Or that the quality of, e.g., customer support will decrease, like it has been the case with Google Fi, in my experience.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#293

The video is not private or deleted. Isn't this it? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLWXJ22LUEc

The original link was to https://twitter.com/googleeurope/status/1623251768099409920, which originally embedded a private video in the Google Europe youtube account. Looks like that has since been redirected to the official video.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#294

You know, whatever the merits (and it sounds as if there were very few) of Google's presentation (or Pinchai's recent non-statement) might be, I would have expected the commentariat here at HN to display way more skepticism about language models as a replacement for search. If there's a crowd anywhere in the world large enough to leave 200+ comments on a post like this, you'd think thatg the one at HN would understan…

> If there's a crowd anywhere in the world large enough to leave 200+ comments on a post like this, you'd think thatg the one at HN would understand these models' currently unsolved problem with lying and fabulation. if i'm being frank, that doesn't match my experience with HN at all. chatgpt is the hot new thing, of course people here are preoccupied imagining a future powered with it. there are a bunch of different…

in general, i often post similar comments on HN, disputing the idea that there is such a thing as "HN groupthink".

what puzzles me here is the the technical limitations of language models (i refuse to call them "large" because the sizes are going to change dramatically) seem so obvious and so well known, that i just find it hard to believe that there are more than a handful of people on HN who uncritically accept the idea that Bing is trying to sell.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#295
post #28

Google is finished. The market has been ripe for disruption and it has finally come. It’s just amazing they never saw it coming. Or maybe they did and underestimated the threat. Too late now, they just fired a bunch of people and have bred a culture of laziness funded by their cash cow advertising products. They don’t know how to innovate anymore.

i was at google half a decade ago. Multiple SVPs expressed in private a concern of search revenue growth and search being disrupted. That was likely the reason for all the now dead products, to attempt to diversify revenue. Meanwhile the company was focusing on DEI vs skill, and thoughtfulness over delivery. They preached 10x but refused to pursue 10x ideas. They tried to create an accelerator, a120 which focused too…

It's been going on much longer. Google's revenue was disrupted with Facebook. Then they scrambled to get Google+ out the door, which had absolutely no reason to exist beyond being a Google-branded clone of Facebook. They effectively lucked in to Android paying off. When the iPhone came out Android was not going to support touchscreens. It was designed for physical buttons only.

That's the problem with Google. They don't have vision. They need someone else to show them the future which usually leaves them racing around trying to find their place in the new world. And then when they do put out a product it's always some half-assed thing that feels like a beta product of some already existing fully-finished product that is wildly popular. Sometimes it works out. Chrome was a joke when it came out. It took many years before Google Maps became a solid, distinct offering. But they want minimum viable products that ape already existing things and want them to be instant hits or they kill them off. It's the Netflix strategy.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have no idea what Apple and Google share unofficially. Remember the Apple China bribery scandal? No? Of course not, it was barely a blip in the news.

> We have no idea what Apple and Google share unofficially There is a phrase that describes "we have no evidence of them doing this, but they might be doing it, because there is no proof of them not doing it" pretty succinctly - baseless speculation. > Remember the Apple China bribery scandal? No? Of course not, it was barely a blip in the news. Are you referencing a Foxconn employee getting hit with allegations of b…

Nope I'm talking about Tim Apple's $275 billion deal.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but I think they're correct a lot more often than ChatGPT. And they give the source!

Search "What is the world record for crossing the English Channel entirely on foot" and see precision Zero. None of the responses match the query. It should say - not found. Or actually find that people attempted to illegally cross through the Channel Tunnel. Usually when I search for error messages for a specific version of software it will respond with other versions. That is useless. That's not what 24 years worth…

asking ChatGPT gives very interesting results (didn't check accuracy):

> What is the world record for crossing the English Channel entirely on foot

As of my training data, the world record for crossing the English Channel entirely on foot is held by Christof Wandratsch, who completed the swim in 8 hours and 58 minutes on August 25, 2018.

> Swimming isn't on foot

My apologies, you are correct. The English Channel is typically crossed by swimming. The world record for swimming the English Channel is held by Benoît Lecomte, who completed the swim in 8 hours and 1 minute on July 23, 1998.

> That's faster and earlier... what did Christof Wandratsch do that was different

Christof Wandratsch completed a cross-Channel run, covering the distance between England and France on foot. This is a different feat than swimming the Channel, as it involves running across the Channel Tunnel, which connects England and France beneath the seabed.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#298

You know, whatever the merits (and it sounds as if there were very few) of Google's presentation (or Pinchai's recent non-statement) might be, I would have expected the commentariat here at HN to display way more skepticism about language models as a replacement for search. If there's a crowd anywhere in the world large enough to leave 200+ comments on a post like this, you'd think thatg the one at HN would understan…

The disruption isn't hypothetical. People like me are excited about the technology because it already has disrupted search for us. My brother has been using it for the majority of his queries because he doesn't speak English and ChatGPT is a gateway to the knowledge that only exists on the English-language internet.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#299

You know, whatever the merits (and it sounds as if there were very few) of Google's presentation (or Pinchai's recent non-statement) might be, I would have expected the commentariat here at HN to display way more skepticism about language models as a replacement for search. If there's a crowd anywhere in the world large enough to leave 200+ comments on a post like this, you'd think thatg the one at HN would understan…

Agreed heavily - and I work with these technologies regularly. There is a mania around it much like there was for crypto (though I would maintain there's more merit here than there ever was with crypto - orders of magnitude more).

There are a litany of problems that surround LLMs that are solvable, but are highly non-trivial. The present hyped demos all seem to involve mainlining the unfiltered output of LLMs directly at the user, and this approach strikes me as largely impractical, with all of the issues you've brought up and more.

Ultimately I think we will land on a few learnings, some of which are IMO pretty obvious already with existing ML:

- There are going to be lots and lots of use cases for LLMs where despite its additional complexity it won't out-perform simpler ML models, or even heuristic-based solutions. This has been a plague for AI startups forever - where the shameful truth is that the ML bits do not significantly outperform heuristic-based approaches, but the ML bits sure as useful for the hype machine. There will be more of these use cases than use cases where LLMs actually do significantly move the state of the art forward.

- In most broadly mainstream-palatable applications the LLM will need to be intermediated by many other systems - some using other ML models, and some using heuristic-based solutions. For example for search, mediating the output through a knowledge graph with reliable provenance and accuracy. Realistically there will be vanishingly few use cases that are thin-wrappers around LLMs. Real usefulness of this tech will require very heavy lifting around the core model to make it actually accurate/reliable enough to be useful on a mass scale. The many products spinning up that seem to be premised on very thin wrappers around OpenAI's API will IMO mostly not survive, both because there is no moat and because the results won't be sufficiently useful.

- Accuracy matters and will be a thorn in the side of these products for quite some time, even though it is solvable. For some use cases (mostly creative ones with a human in the loop - like creative writing or image synthesis) the lack of accuracy is livable, but for most others the propensity to hallucinate is going to be a major barrier to adoption. Right now you're dealing with an enthusiast audience that's willing to look past glaring and obvious errors in output in favor of what it could be and how far we've come, but a mainstream audience I suspect will be less forgiving. Social media virality around product failure cases will also further punish products.

Overall I think what we're looking at here is legitimately a huge leap forward, but this legitimate and well-found excitement needs to be tempered by the fact that some (most?) players in the space seem to be getting in way over their skis, and that truly productionizing this technology is going to be intensely difficult.

[edit] To be a bit less doom and gloom about this - I think the real winner here are natural language interfaces, and stepping ever closer towards computer systems that do not need to be actively learned before being used. There is IMO an over-focus on the knowledge-encoding part of LLMs (which is unreliable and prone to hallucination) and not enough focus on the language-encoding part of LLMs (which is what they actually do). For the most part voice/language-based interfaces have had limited traction because they honestly haven't been smart enough to understand user requests with a sufficient level of expressivity and fidelity. I suspect these products (and new ones) will have another crack at this problem.

Re: Google's live from Paris event private/deleted immediately

#300
post #251

You know, whatever the merits (and it sounds as if there were very few) of Google's presentation (or Pinchai's recent non-statement) might be, I would have expected the commentariat here at HN to display way more skepticism about language models as a replacement for search. If there's a crowd anywhere in the world large enough to leave 200+ comments on a post like this, you'd think thatg the one at HN would understan…

> And yet when I read the comments, I see this sort of calm acceptance that of course this technology is going to take over search. Why is everyone so confident? It is difficult to get a man to critically evaluate something if his future salary depends upon his unquestioning acceptance of it.

SV and Wall Street loves a smart guy who bucks the trend, big risk taker.

Mostly a question of pucker factor -- how big of a bet in favor or against, and how big of an impact on the job will you risk?

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