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U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

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Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#831

[flagged]

You do know that ordinary people saw both the balloon and it being shot down. And the US government doesn't need ridiculous tactics like this to shore up support for protecting Taiwan. It is pretty much the only thing that almost every member of Congress supports.

Let’s say it is Chinese, why not silently remove it vs running it through the news wires or telling the public it was a weather balloon? Fake story doesn’t mean the object didn’t exist.

Almost every member of Congress supports starting WW3 over Taiwan? I’m not sure that’s true, and if it is it’s a major problem.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#832

Earlier quoted context omitted.

most news agencies blindly repeat what the local/state/federal government tells them. There’s very little primary research on stories like this.

Even if that is true. I cannot really follow the argument that this would mean CNBC is conspiring with neocons to do a "Ukraine 2.0" in Taiwan. These kinds of claims require more evidence.

It’s not conspiring because they aren’t two groups of people. CNBC is run by the same corporate interests, including especially the arms industry, as the uniparty in DC. The evidence is every single story they publish regarding war.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#833

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure what the CCP is thinking. Are they simply trying to instigate a response with such a brazen display?

Its not like USA have never violated other nations air space https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_aerial_reconnais... but I guess we quit doing it to China https://www.nytimes.com/1971/07/29/archives/us-spy-flights-o...

And until a couple of years ago, we also allowed it.

    >The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them.
    >[...]
    >On 22 November 2020, United States official sources [...] announced that the six-month period was over and the U.S. was no longer a party to the Treaty.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#834
post #382

I feel like the balloon takedown was seriously mishandled. Imo it should have been shot down right after it crossed our borders and before it started move over populated areas. That way there would be no surveillance and you could examine the payload. Now that it’s in the water, you may not even find it.

The US has great radar capabilities, so we obvious knew it was there. I think that raises the question of why we didn't shoot it down. Maybe we were curious where it was going and we wanted to see how capable at navigating it was? Is it too dangerous to shoot down over land? What was the diplomatic communication with the Chinese? There's many questions that may never be answered in public.

It seems more than likely that this had little surveillance abilities that a satellite doesn't already have, so little intelligence risk. Maybe we went as far as to plant a false target for it.

Alternatively, if this had weapons on it, dropping it on land seems pretty dangerous compared to off the coast.

Additionally, out of diplomacy, we should communicate with the Chinese that we're about to blow their stuff up, especially when they politely pretend it's civilian. Civilized nations need to play political games before we can blow up "civilian" equipment.

Beyond all this, some other comments here have claimed that these balloons have been going on for a few presidencies now, without any being shot down. So why is it a concern now? I'd be worried about suddenly war-hawking something that hasn't been a problem. There's enough going on in the world without a degrading US-Chinese relationship. This is probably simply the case that it's a non-issue that got too much attention and needed to be addressed publicly.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#835

Sidestepping the geopolitical issues with this for a moment ... What advantage is there to using a high altitude balloon for surveillance? I have to imagine there are some - like longer loiter time over a specific point, maybe better optics because you are still in atmosphere, it's obviously cheaper than launching a satellite - but I don't really know enough about this kind of hardware to say. Or maybe the point wasn…

Turnaround/prototyping. Getting a sensor onto a spy sat is a multi-year process of testing and validating. But a new balloon can probably be built and flown in a matter of weeks. So any country trying to learn how to spy from above might want to build up the relevant corporate knowledge using balloons.

Chinese doesn't need to learn how to spy or build up knowledge, and they surely have plenty of satellites at this point.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#836

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw it from my car today while driving before I knew it was going to be in my area. It was very visible to the naked eye. It was large enough that the perspective made it seem a lot lower altitude than it actually was.

Not sure what the CCP is thinking. Are they simply trying to instigate a response with such a brazen display?

I am equally puzzled. But the recent aggressive statement by China [1] makes me think they are testing Biden's resolve. If you fly something in a foreign country's airspace, you don't get to complain that it has been shot down, particularly if it's just hardware. It looks like some sort of provocation to see how confrontational the US gets beyond cheap speech on TV. And I can't help suspecting that what made the US wait so long to shoot it is indecisiveness. It flew over huge areas of empty fields, it certainly isn't safety.

[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/chinese-sp...

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#837
post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did they actually apologize? I thought all they said is that it was a weather balloon. Regardless, I'm very interested in what hardware was actually on this thing. Hopefully the public gets a summary of what USN pulls up during recovery.

“… the uncharacteristic speed and contrition of China’s statement as indications that it was probably a genuine error…” https://www.economist.com/china/2023/02/03/how-a-balloon-bur...

[deleted]

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#838
post #565
post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yah I believe that. But all the electronics will be shorted and likely damaged by salty water, which is conducive.

It seems like the electronics should be in an enclosure to protect them from the extreme cold, low air pressure, radiation, etc. they would encounter at 60,000 feet. Whether that would survive the fall is a different question.

You can still learn a lot from broken electronics, even if you cannot power them up. Have you seen what utterly destroyed hard drives data recovery specialists can get data from?

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#839

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Judging from the videos that pan from the moon to the balloon: the balloon was about 3x smaller in the sky than the moon. Knowing the altitude of the balloon was 68,000 feet, we can fudge the distance from the observer to the balloon as 100,000 feet. Knowing the distance to the moon and the radius of the moon we can use like triangles to estimate that the balloon was ~285 feet across, +/- 20% for estimates. Edit: upd…

Size of a football field, got it

Which football? Real football or American football?

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#840

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe the Chinese officials, they had lost control of the balloon. Things that go up must famously go down, though that's not their department said Wernher Von Braun.

It's a bit strange how they are simultaneously upset that their balloon got shot down and claiming they had lost control of it.

Well it gives a good excuse to shoot down US spy balloons or planes. The precedence has been set, and the snowball continue to roll downwards.
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