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The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

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Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#151
post #26

It's not a surprise that cognitive ability (the paper seems to define it as relatively close to classical IQ) is not highly correlated with earning ability or even value production for society. I would argue that a much better correlant of both production value and capture value is conscientiousness, or vaguely synonymously, hardworking, diligent, etc. A brilliant world observer who tweets their witty one-liners all…

There's a lot of truth in this. Some of the most classically brilliant people I went to school with ended up being homeless drug addicts or shut-ins. Meanwhile, the unassuming Ukrainian guy who built my deck is a secret multi-millionaire from his house flipping business. You can walk around the neighborhood and pick out the houses he's remodeled and modernized because they look so much better than the ones on either…

[dead]

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people with your net worth grind it out without any windfalls, the product of consistent hard work and reasonable choices over decades. It was always a possibility. Most people don't require an IPO to achieve that. Luck can accelerate that outcome but it is not necessary in any meaningful sense. It requires significantly greater extremes of wealth before luck plays a more frequent role. I know people well into 8…

> I know people well into 8-figures who were never anything more than blue-collar grinders. Can you elaborate? I don’t see how that’s possible unless they started work in their early 20s, have been maxing their retirement, never had an accident or have been unemployed, made incredible investment decisions, and are now 60+? Even then I dont see how it’s possible for blue collar folks. Well into 8 figures is like … at…

Assuming it is possible (it's probably not), it certainly wouldn't be possible without the luck of having been in an insanely strong market for whatever blue-collar trade (allegedly) got them there.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#153
post #102
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you’re saying the poor have much more to gain through hard work and shouldn’t be discouraged?

You have it completely reversed. Hard work for the poor most likely means they will still be poor and therefore have very little to gain from it.

This is just not true, at least in Australia (and I suspect most other first-world countries, including the US).

If anything, it's easier to go from having nothing to a comfortable, middle-class lifestyle than it is to go from middle-class to wealthy.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#154

It's not a surprise that cognitive ability (the paper seems to define it as relatively close to classical IQ) is not highly correlated with earning ability or even value production for society. I would argue that a much better correlant of both production value and capture value is conscientiousness, or vaguely synonymously, hardworking, diligent, etc. A brilliant world observer who tweets their witty one-liners all…

> It's not a surprise that cognitive ability (the paper seems to define it as relatively close to classical IQ) is not highly correlated with earning ability or even value production for society.

Did you look at the same chart I did? It um, goes very obviously up and to the right. There's a ridiculously strong correlation, just not a linear one.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, if it was actually like monopoly there is 0 chance of succeeding once people have established themselves. You have a finite number of bets you can make in your life, if you waste them by partying, gambling and being high on drugs then yeah, I can see how it can feel like it's impossible to succeed. And life is a lot easier than these board games, there isn't one winner in life.

I think it's interesting that partying and drug use make 2 out of 3 slots in your list of useless bets that are sure to make you fail. Aren't there whole classes of extremely wealthy people who are known for drugs use and constant partying? The real central point here is wasting time. If your partying and drug use is using money for no return, your time is not paying off and you're heading down. But parties and drugs…

>Aren't there whole classes of extremely wealthy people who are known for drugs use and constant partying?

Yes, and they deplete their family's centuries-old hoards of wealth within 2 generations.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yeah, you should have told that to my immigrant parents who came here with nothing.

The game features a set of dice, so anecdotes such as this one are not impossible, it's just that you need to be extremely lucky.

From what I've seen, unsuccessful immigrants are the exception rather than the norm.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#157

It's not a surprise that cognitive ability (the paper seems to define it as relatively close to classical IQ) is not highly correlated with earning ability or even value production for society. I would argue that a much better correlant of both production value and capture value is conscientiousness, or vaguely synonymously, hardworking, diligent, etc. A brilliant world observer who tweets their witty one-liners all…

> It's not a surprise that cognitive ability (the paper seems to define it as relatively close to classical IQ) is not highly correlated with earning ability or even value production for society. Did you look at the same chart I did? It um, goes very obviously up and to the right. There's a ridiculously strong correlation, just not a linear one.

The correlation coefficient is actually about 0.23 according to the paper. It just looks really correlated when they bin it by deciles but that's a visual artefact.

If you plotted individual people in a scatter plot this is what 0.23 correlation looks like: http://www3.cmp.uea.ac.uk/~jrk/distribution/correlations/cor... i.e. you can barely tell any positive relationship visually.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#158
post #28

Implicit is the presumption that the smartest people optimize for wealth, or that the smartest people are good at optimizing for wealth. Outside of Wall Street, "smart" people - academics, doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc. - are just as likely to make bad personal finance decisions and/or to stay in labor (rather than management) positions for most of their careers (leave aside the dual-track IC/management ladder at…

the ranks of upper management are typically filled with people who are socially/politically smart

I used to think this still meant a sort of philosophical brilliance, an high minded intellectual mastery of manipulation.

I’ve started to realize it might be more of an instinctual animal cunning; they just have a sense of the right thing to do or say. The remaining question is whether they learned that sense or were born with it.

It is curious to entertain the latter; perhaps a hundred people are born with a hundred different calibrations, and only one of the hundred is born with just the right instinct.

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#159
post #5

The idea that salary is a measure of self-worth is an unfortunate lie that our modern society perpetuates.

[flagged]

"Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community." It's reliably a marker of bad comments and worse threads.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

(The GP comment was heavily upvoted btw, which doesn't seem surprising at all.)

Re: The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds right. Around 2.2 million, your money starts to generate more income than your labor can, unless you have an exceptionally high paying job.

So maybe people with a net worth above 2.2 million should be paying a wealth tax instead of an income tax.

That's called inflation.
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