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Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

matduggan.com

221–230 of 279 posts

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#221
> In general, the study found that both downsized and nondownsized companies reported positive financial outcomes during this period. The downsized companies, however, were outperformed consistently by the nondownsized ones during the initial two years following the downsizing. By the third year, these differences became statistically nonsignificant.

But in the absence of layoffs perhaps those companies would have done worse. Therefore we could easily argue that this does not contradict the claim that layoffs do work. In particular layoffs are not meant to make a company grow faster than other companies, they are meant to prevent extreme bloat and inefficiency and get back to a normal baseline. So if we assume that context the data makes more sense.

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#222

This is incredibly dumb. > The downsized companies, however, were outperformed consistently by the nondownsized ones during the initial two years following the downsizing. Can you think of any confounding factors in this analysis? How do you control for important factors like, say: whether the board is in enough financial trouble to downsize ?

You’re assuming downsizing is a consequence of financial trouble. It has not been the case for almost every layoff that happened recently.

How do you reckon that? All the big tech companies had huge income declines.

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#223
post #13

Companies don't care if layoffs work. They are confident that when the time comes, they will replace the dismissed with other employees. Whether the new hires will be as efficient and skilled as their predecessors is, of course, a question mark. But they don't care. Please stop thinking of companies as emotional creatures. The only thing companies care about is money. Who cares people.

But decision-makers at companies frequently make irrational decisions, or at least decisions that are irrational based on their stated objectives. "Only caring about money" doesn't necessarily mean you make the best decisions to earn more money. Look at how many sports franchises have desperately wanted a win and then made a lot of atrocious decisions that did not achieve that -- why would we think that's the only field of human endeavor where that happens?

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#224
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> " Is anyone really going to miss that $4 billion? " Yes, the people who own the company will, i.e. shareholders. The majority are not some cartoonish greedy fatcats either; they're ordinary people like you and I who have retirement investments in stocks and mutual funds. Moreover, if you think employees at FAANGs and big tech companies aren't on-board with this laser focus on share price, remember that a big, big c…

I dunno, I have my retirement investments in stocks and mutual funds. Whether Apple earns 20B in profits or 24B in profits doesn’t make a whit of difference to me. If they improve their stock price by only 1% this year so they’re in a position to improve it by 6% next year, then that’s a good thing. Conversely, companies that immediately fire people because their stock gain was less than the 3% they expected, are too…

Sure it doesn't matter too much if apple makes 4B more. But in aggregate if the whole market starts caring about profit significantly less it's going to slow down growth of your investments. And so 30 years from now when you earned only 2% returns you might think, "hmm I wish those companies had tried to be more efficient".

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> " Is anyone really going to miss that $4 billion? " Yes, the people who own the company will, i.e. shareholders. The majority are not some cartoonish greedy fatcats either; they're ordinary people like you and I who have retirement investments in stocks and mutual funds. Moreover, if you think employees at FAANGs and big tech companies aren't on-board with this laser focus on share price, remember that a big, big c…

> The majority are not some cartoonish greedy fatcats either; 53% of all stocks are held by the 1% so yes Virginia the MAJORITY are some cartoonish greedy fatcats

I don't care how many stocks the 1% own. I do care that my own investments increase in value. So I want companies to make decisions that benefit shareholders (including me). Just because some rich guy makes $10 million while I make $10,000 doesn't mean I'd rather not make the $10,000.

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#226
post #76

Posting social media videos of "a day in the life of FANG" company showcasing the little amount of work people do doesn't work either. There's a lot of people at these companies who don't do anything meaningful and are getting paid a boat load. There's people like that in almost every company. Back from the Yahoo peak days I had multiple people tell me that all they did in a week was fix 1-2 small bugs in a day and d…

They aren't allowed to show videos of their actual work. So obviously they only show the parts that they can show like lunch or whatever. Most people at FANG companies work quite a lot in my experience.

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#227

> Imagine you had a dog... Imagine that instead of a dog, it's an adult who makes their own choices and gets paid money, and who signed a contract where the terms of employment were spelled out very clearly..

A better analogy would be: imagine that you hired a gardener. And you were paying them every week to mow your lawn. But one day you thought, "hey I'm paying $100 for this guy to mow my lawn, but I could do it myself in an hour". And you told the gardener "your services are no longer needed" and started to mow your lawn yourself.

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#228

"In addition, nearly one-third of the executives thought their companies terminated the wrong person at least 20% of the time, and approximately an additional quarter indicated that their companies made the wrong decision 10% of the time." Within corporate decision-making, this rate is actually "fucking genius" level. This article doesn't say what it thinks it says.

Yeah an 80% success rate is amazing.

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#229
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget the next bit, "by the third year, these differences became statistically nonsignificant". So the layoffs... worked?

> So the layoffs... worked? How does that follow? The conclusion would be that both the companies and workers suffered unnecessarily for 2 years, with no long-term benefit afterward to the layoffs. In other words, you should just ride out the downtimes instead of panicking.

It's pretty obvious to me at this point that most of the time layoffs are driven by exceptions of financial annalists. A point of order none of those guys have ever been involved in running firms. And the certainly don't care about anything beyond how long a median 'investor' holds stock.

Re: Layoffs Are Cruel and Don't Work

#230

Layoffs work, I just think companies tend to layoff the wrong folks. I had 7 layers of management between myself (IC) and the CEO at my last job with just a couple thousand people. How much of a “multiplier effect” can those people truly have? What ended up happening was feature creep ran too large, the company scrambled to hire engineers to keep up with pace of development, then the debt caught up with them once int…

Sure but in practice ICs are like ~90% of employees. So it's hard to not have them be the bulk of any layoff.
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