The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

My family's been farming corn on corn for 20+ years. Started strip-tilling in the 80's High residue fields help trap as much moisture as we can with limited irrigation capacity. Farmers have no choice but to take care of their soils to remain viable. And more than viable, be profitable as there are many people who depend on them both for their livelihoods as well as an ever demanding population with mouths to feed.

I'm always perplexed when reading such opinions: do people writing this ever tried to consider anything, just to sit and think for 1 minute instead of retranslating propaganda by media.

If you think that Putin is sick, do you think it is possible to rule the huge country with quite big population, huge territory, and a bunch of problems exacerbated by Western sanctions, quite successfully? E.g. the effect of sanctions on everyday life in Russia is negligible opposed to predicted effect. E.g. if you read comments on HN from about 1 year ago, you'll read something like "Russia would collapse in 3 days" (or 3 weeks or 3 months).

Also, is it like some God-like force makes his subordinates to listen to him although "he's clearly mad"?

It's such a primitive train of thought fueled by propaganda, that it never ceases to amaze me, especially on site like Hacker News and not reddit.

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> Greed of Putin while being detached from reality

Putin rules the largest country in the world. One of the most rich countries also (in real resources, not just printed money and inflated GDP). What do you mean by his "greed"? That he wants to take the place of USA and rule the whole world?

> being detached from reality due to covid fears and paranoia

If he's been detached from reality, how he succeeds ruling the huge country in clearly hostile environment? Don't you ever find a contradiction in this?

> overconfidence in his army

I guess (we all can only guess) that he didn't expect that all the West would supply so much weapons and soldiers of fortune to Ukraine (AFAIK, there're tens of thousands of soldiers of regular army of Poland fighting there, also France, US, and other countries). Still, Russia is prevailing, there's already no young Ukraine men left, there're only 45+ years Ukrainian men left and Western combatants.

And it's almost evident by this point in time that there's no way Ukraine would win that war. There're some scenarios like CIA would be able to organize successful coup de etat and replace Putin with traitor like Gorbachev or Yeltsin or someone of that kind who will simply sell Russia to the west.

But there's no way to win this battle any other way. Not with 45+ years old soldiers riding 100 donated western tanks because Russia already burned down 7,000+ soviet tanks donated to Ukraine during the past year.

You're right, people don't think about these things from a more open perspective.

A general rule of thumb I follow is if someone who is otherwise successful, particular for a prolonged period of time, is doing something that is purportedly crazy, stupid, reckless, etc, I ask myself if maybe I haven't fully considered the situation.

Even if one falls into the camp of Putin being evil incarnate, he's been evil incarnate in power for quite a while and has presided over a Russia that by almost any metric is vastly improved relative to when he came into power. Whatever you say, Putin is not crazy and he's not stupid.

Maybe, just maybe, Russia found herself in a situation where very severe sanctions and being decoupled from the west, an area they tried tirelessly to forge ties with vis a vis energy, etc, maybe they found themselves in a situation where as bad as that outcome was, not invading Ukraine would be worse. Why might that be? They may be wrong, but more likely than not, this was a choice arrived at reluctantly and from their perspective, all the other options were _worse_ than potential war with the entirety of the collective west, deaths of tens of thousands, etc, etc.

I find that when I think of the actions of powerful nations and people as driven by a coherent thought process, I'm better able to predict their actions. I often think these entities may be wrong, that they may misunderstand some other process themselves, that they may be motivated by internal political considerations, etc, but it's never the cartoon version we hear in the media.

It's strange that people so rarely exercise this kind of thought. Do they still do those exercises in school where one has to argue both sides of a contentious issue? It's an essential skill.