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Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

reuters.com

41–48 of 48 posts

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#41
post #15
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the long-term future for x86 as it gets squeezed from below by ARM?

A quite long one, unless Windows on ARM finally manages to be a success after so many reboots. Even if Windows eventually dies, replaced by something ARM friendly, we are decades away of anything else achieving the same desktop market coverage across the globe.

I am already using Windows on ARM. Works great.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#42
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the long-term future for x86 as it gets squeezed from below by ARM?

Even if x86 is out, what would an Intel pivot to risc-v look like? Id think it'd really put the screws to Arm.

There is no real moat around risc-v for intel: they fon't own any of the ip and they're not ahead in fabs.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#43
post #37
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Steam Deck is a Windows emulator ignoring the lessons of Windows emulation on OS/2. The target platform keeps being Windows x86/x64 in what game developers are concerned. Since Windows CE days for ARM, the amount of device sales have hardly been spectacular, hence Project Volterra, which isn't taking the world of Windows development by storm in any way.

OS/2 is often cited as an cautionary tale of how enabling software for another OS to run is suicide, but everyone who cites it that way makes the wrong conclusion. As counter points, iBCS2 did wonders for Linux adoption and Windows is doing well with Android+Linux emulation. The Steam Deck is also doing wonders with Windows emulation. OS/2's main problem was that it was only preinstalled on expensive IBM hardware tha…

Windows is running Android and Linux on their own Hyper-V instances, hardly much emulation going on besides the hypervisor drivers.

Android on Windows requires Windows 11, is US only and uses Amazon store, hardly a success.

WSL is being a success to drive Windows sales, because as Microsoft learned from Apple's customer base, it turns out many developers only care about having a POSIX environment and couldn't care less to support Linux vendors Additionally it helps selling Windows containers on top of Docker tooling, for the same kind of customers.

That is the target, nothing else.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#44
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A quite long one, unless Windows on ARM finally manages to be a success after so many reboots. Even if Windows eventually dies, replaced by something ARM friendly, we are decades away of anything else achieving the same desktop market coverage across the globe.

I am already using Windows on ARM. Works great.

It remains to be seen if ongoing efforts, including having created ARM64CE executable format, bare the adoption at scale Microsoft is expecting, versus previous attempts.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#45
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Windows, because that is what most common people use on their desktops and laptops across the globe.

Sure, I do not know if Microsoft has any competitively priced ARM products, but if they do, it still does not help Intel.

So far all attempts to push Windows on ARM have been a commercial failure and it hasn't been for lack of trying.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#46
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am already using Windows on ARM. Works great.

It remains to be seen if ongoing efforts, including having created ARM64CE executable format, bare the adoption at scale Microsoft is expecting, versus previous attempts.

All I know for sure is that with an Apple Silicon ARM based laptop, I never think about charging anymore. When I'm around a charger I charge it a bit. I use it for hours at a time and don't even think about charging. Windows users would get used to this lack of battery anxiety really quick.

I had x86 laptops and they were great. But when running on battery, there is always those glances up at the battery indicator every few minutes and thinking about when I am going to have to get to a charger again. Until you have left that behind, with a super lightweight laptop, you just can't understand what a game changer it is.

I think Microsoft is eager to get to that experience for their users. I hope they will keep making the investment to get there.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#47

I’m bullish on Intel even with their current struggles. I think owning their own infrastructure will pay off in the future when competitors are getting squeezed by fabs playing supply side economic games.

> competitors are getting squeezed by fabs playing supply side economic games. Curious, what games are you referring to? The fab business is fairly direct and open. One of the truer supply and demand situations.

I think a company like TSMC is in a fantastic position to manipulate the supply end of the industry to benefit themselves at the expense of the demand side. Just because they aren’t doing it right now doesn’t mean it’s going to stay like that forever.

I feel like the demand is going to be hard to satisfy for a long time and the inevitable outcome will be a handful of fabs demanding big premiums. It’s pure speculation, but I think Intel owning their fabs makes them a safer bet than AMD relying on TSMC.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#48
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It remains to be seen if ongoing efforts, including having created ARM64CE executable format, bare the adoption at scale Microsoft is expecting, versus previous attempts.

All I know for sure is that with an Apple Silicon ARM based laptop, I never think about charging anymore. When I'm around a charger I charge it a bit. I use it for hours at a time and don't even think about charging. Windows users would get used to this lack of battery anxiety really quick. I had x86 laptops and they were great. But when running on battery, there is always those glances up at the battery indicator ev…

What Microsoft wants doesn't matter, if it isn't appealing to the Windows developer community, as it has been proven multiple times.
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