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Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

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Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#1
Is anyone else noticing that for several 5 year blocks (pentad) the world just seems to get markedly worse? It's like no body seems to give a shit about anyone except themselves anymore. Whats the cause of this? What's the solution?

A bunch of things I've noticed:

* Landlords seem extremely greedy and do terrible rent seeking tactics like fees upon fees (250 admin fee to rent here, $75 to apply, $300 non refundable pet deposit, $25 a month pet rent, $12.50 community fee, $15 trash valet, $5 online payment fee, $100 a month community internet (for the $50 a month package), going Month to month after a lease ends is 2x the annual price. And then they use RealPage to collude to make prices higher[1]

* People are noisy as fuck and dont seem to give a shit. Seems like every night there's someone with loud as exhaust on "sportish" car ripping around the neihborhood. For months this guy would start up his loud car at 7am and no one care when I complained.

* General worker apathy is endemic everywhere I go people seem aggravated I would dare to check my order and point out they didn't put in the ketchup i asked for, or the napkins, or whatever. Or when I dine in the tables are dirty. Or the gym is filthy, the cleaner just drags the mop around looking busy but accomplishing nothing. But in many instances they keep asking for more tips.

* Software seems to be overrun by a mentality that any future cost is worth it to save even 1 minute of development time today. And this one I think I've observed the root, it seems that people get promoted away from their problems so they're not the ones to solve them. And those who do write good software (albeit slightly slower) are not promotable beacuse they're "under performing" their peers. Why does it seem management (and many thusly incentivized engineers) have abandoned decades of experience showing how to create reliable, robust, reusable code that is both great the customer, fast to iterate on, and only a tiny tiny bit slower to write.

* Seems like everything is subscription model and you have to pay N times to access something thats only worth 1-3x . Eg: I Netflix for a couple hours a month. At the price for 4k access I can almost go out to a theatre. Video games are all trending to subscription models. I just learned the other day that the PS4 games I got with my subcription to PSN all are locked because I stopped subscribing (nearly 50 games) . So I paid them like $125 for access to these games for 24 months, and now I cannot play any of them? At least I still own NES/SNES/N64 Game cartridges that will never lock me out.

* Police seem to not give a shit anymore. I've noticed what seems to be total lawlessness going on in my world. Folks stealing shit. People driving absurdly dangerously in cars that are not designed to travel like that. (tailgating, lane switch, accelerating at the fastest I've ever seen a beat up Sentra do...) . I never see cops hit lights and sirens at them. And every year our taxes (their paycheck) and our insurance goes up (a consequence of poor driving habits). And at the same time, we get these cases where a dude like Tyre, at least as I see the body cam, seems to be basically complying and the police freak out on him, he basically complies, and they taze and pepper spay him, no wonder he ran away -- what is someone supposed to think when they say "on the ground" and you get on the ground and then just keep getting more and more aggressive. Like are you gonna just lay on your face while they potentially pull their gun and just shoot you in the back of the head? How do you know what's going on unless you can face and see them? How can you trust they wont, cause even if it's 99.999999% they wont, you only get 1 one chance and if you get it wrong you're dead without any coming back.

* Over and over again we keep hearing stories of fake people becoming the top paid, respected, or otherwise status people in society. Elizabeth Holmes, Frank/JP Morgan scam for $175M[2], fraudulent crypto schemes

* And there's a ton of little things too like the water is poison, the air is poison, the food system is poison or crashing etc.

I'm aware of pinker's general argument that many numbers are getting better. But it seems like people just treat eachother like shit these days.

Anyone else have other examples? I am I way off base here?

[1]: https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/26/23479034/doj-investigating-rent-setting-software-company-realpage

[2]: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/21/business/jpmorgan-chase-charlie-javice-fraud.html

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#3
Let's hope we're not headed towards Singapore or 14th century Venice, https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/46499129502/the-rise...

> Venice had prospered under a relatively open political system in which a wide swath of the people had a voice in the selection of the republic’s ruler, the doge, and successful outsiders could join the ruling class. But in 1315, the establishment, which had been gradually tightening its control over the government, put a formal stop to social mobility with the publication of the Libro D'Oro, or Book of Gold, which was an official registry of Venetian nobility. If you weren’t in it, you couldn’t join the ruling oligarchy.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#6
The quality of some products is getting worse for sure because companies are enlarging their margins by saving as much as they can to reduce their costs with obvious repercussions on the quality. It is also part of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence

Refrigerators used to last forever. I still have a 1993 refrigerator that is still working well. In the meanwhile with all brands except maybe for Subzero and other $10k refrigerators you are lucky today if the refrigerator lasts 6 years.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#7
I think you're way off base. It's called rosy retrospection, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosy_retrospection. As you already mentioned in your comments, you're judging the past disproportionately more positive that the present.

If you really want to know if everything is declining, try measure it everyday for the next five years. For example, every day, rate your personal well being, track how (un)happy you are with the current software, how much you pay to your landlords and subscriptions, how many mistakes the police makes, the weather, everything, ... After 5 years you'll have a good idea if things actually got worse than they are now. Sure, some things will get worse, but definitely not everything, and some things will even be better than they are now.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#8

Sounds like you live in a bad neighborhood. My rust belt neighborhood doesn't have those issues, and it's very affordable on a tech salary. Vote with your feet.

You don't even need to move that far. I moved away from Seattle but still in WA and it's been quite nice. Issaquah, Tacoma, Olympia, Gig Harbor are all quite nice, for instance. Especially in the burbs. Seattle is still close enough to some of them even. I'm lucky enough to have been in software for the last decade so it's plenty affordable.

Still better than the midwest where I came from.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#9
Like tipping, subscriptions are out of control. Everything needs a subscription now. And a common trend is a company releasing a feature or service and then later degrading it, to encourage people to buy a subscription to restore original functionality.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#10
I'm not saying that I agree with all of your points (the air and water were far worse in the mid-20th century in many areas, for example), but let's take it as given and advance an hypothesis: decreasing time horizon. The ever-increasing (because self-feeding) pace of technological change, means that there is less and less predictability about the situation in the future, so timescales over which people plan are shortened. This is most obvious in the example of software being made for a very short time horizon, with the idea that it will be regardless obsolete in a short time, and anyway faster and faster hardware will overcome software bloat. Whether correct or not, a shorter and shorter timescale in planning is probably inevitable if things change faster and faster, which they are.

Just an hypothesis.

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