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Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

reuters.com

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Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#21

Post by pjmlp »

RantyDave wrote: post #17
pjmlp wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A quite long one, unless Windows on ARM finally manages to be a success after so many reboots. Even if Windows eventually dies, replaced by something ARM friendly, we are decades away of anything else achieving the same desktop market coverage across the globe.

I wouldn't be so sure. Bear in mind that most Windows PC's are in offices and are therefore written down to $0 every three to five years or so, depending on how your accounting goes. Speaking of accounting, halving the power consumption starts to look like it might be a good idea if the computer has a service life of six to ten thousand hours. And Apple have proven that ARM based computers can be better that x86 ones…

80% of the world desktops aren't going to ever be replaced by Apple hardware, unless Apple decides on another price policy.

Likewise I have given up on the Year of Desktop Linux when Windows 7 came to be, and even with the latest hiccups, I don't see a reason that it will ever change.

ChromeOS and Android, even if running the Linux kernel, aren't a GNU userland, nor a replacement for the Windows workloads that matter to the people that keep going for Windows all around the globe.

So unless Windows on ARM is a success (so far it has failed at it), Intel and AMD don't have much to worry about for desktop workloads.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#22

Post by lotsofpulp »

pjmlp wrote: post #21
RantyDave wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be so sure. Bear in mind that most Windows PC's are in offices and are therefore written down to $0 every three to five years or so, depending on how your accounting goes. Speaking of accounting, halving the power consumption starts to look like it might be a good idea if the computer has a service life of six to ten thousand hours. And Apple have proven that ARM based computers can be better that x86 ones…

80% of the world desktops aren't going to ever be replaced by Apple hardware, unless Apple decides on another price policy. Likewise I have given up on the Year of Desktop Linux when Windows 7 came to be, and even with the latest hiccups, I don't see a reason that it will ever change. ChromeOS and Android, even if running the Linux kernel, aren't a GNU userland, nor a replacement for the Windows workloads that matter…

I do not know about 80%, but I went into a Bank of America last year to get a certified check, and the employee did everything for me via an iPad.

I have also seen hotel employees use property management system software on iPads, no on premise server or Windows required.

I would not be surprised if there is a lot of opportunity for change here. It is just so much easier to train and troubleshoot on a machine that has little (or no?) possibility of malware, can be fixed by just swapping it out with a replacement and logging into the app, uses less power, and is cheaper.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#24

Post by jaybeavers »

pjc50 wrote: post #18
RantyDave wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be so sure. Bear in mind that most Windows PC's are in offices and are therefore written down to $0 every three to five years or so, depending on how your accounting goes. Speaking of accounting, halving the power consumption starts to look like it might be a good idea if the computer has a service life of six to ten thousand hours. And Apple have proven that ARM based computers can be better that x86 ones…

The preconditions are "can run the existing Windows apps required at adequate performance" and "can be centrally administered like Windows"; are either of those met yet?

Both of those are reasonably met on the Steam Deck today which is running Linux…

Now the Steam Deck has an x64 CPU, but I’m running my heavyweight production Windows apps today on a Macbook Pro M1 running Windows 11 Arm in a VM which in turn is running Windows x64 apps in Windows on Arm’s cpu emulator and its a decent experience.

Really heavy apps like Visual Studio (not Code) and Altium (ee cad) are noticably slower, but run juat fine if I tune the VM for ‘gaming/CAD’ setings which basically allocates 12 GB RAM and 4 arm cores to the Windows VM.

Steam Deck does things differently — they have a sufficiently large Win32 compat layer that they aren’t running Windows in a VM at all. Now They don’t run this api layer on top of a x64 over arm layer, but I dont see why that won’t happen somewhere sometime soon…

Valve/Steam has the ‘runs existing Win32 apps without Windows working really well in production and they have a financial engine (games storefront) which is funding the support and improvement of this layer.

Both Apple and Microsoft (and others) have ‘run x86 apps on arm’ running really well in production today.

If Apple really wanted to run Win32 natively, they could do it without much new engineering investment. If Valve decides that an Arm chip makes more sense than their AMD chip in the Steam Deck, they could do it too.

Maybe some third party disruptor leverages Valve’s work and uses one of the (much better than Win11) Linux shells and creates some hardware like the Mac Mini M2 or the MSFT Arm dev kit, we’d see a real contender for Desktop Linux with full Win32 support on Arm.

The real question to me is does anyone outside of Apple have a current gen Arm CPU/GPU that has the performance? My Surface Pro X with Qualcomm Snapdragon is considerably slower than my Macbook Pro M1 running Windows apps in Coherence mode on Parallels Desktop inside a Windows VM. Parallels works, but I end up burning 6-8gb of ram to windows vm overhead and have the overhead of managing dual OSes to make this frankenstack work…

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#25

Post by pjmlp »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #22
pjmlp wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

80% of the world desktops aren't going to ever be replaced by Apple hardware, unless Apple decides on another price policy. Likewise I have given up on the Year of Desktop Linux when Windows 7 came to be, and even with the latest hiccups, I don't see a reason that it will ever change. ChromeOS and Android, even if running the Linux kernel, aren't a GNU userland, nor a replacement for the Windows workloads that matter…

I do not know about 80%, but I went into a Bank of America last year to get a certified check, and the employee did everything for me via an iPad. I have also seen hotel employees use property management system software on iPads, no on premise server or Windows required. I would not be surprised if there is a lot of opportunity for change here. It is just so much easier to train and troubleshoot on a machine that has…

America is one of the few Apple holdouts, as well as countries in similar wage levels.

The majority of the world among 195 recognised countries + others, isn't as lucky.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#26

Post by pjmlp »

jaybeavers wrote: post #24
pjc50 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The preconditions are "can run the existing Windows apps required at adequate performance" and "can be centrally administered like Windows"; are either of those met yet?

Both of those are reasonably met on the Steam Deck today which is running Linux… Now the Steam Deck has an x64 CPU, but I’m running my heavyweight production Windows apps today on a Macbook Pro M1 running Windows 11 Arm in a VM which in turn is running Windows x64 apps in Windows on Arm’s cpu emulator and its a decent experience. Really heavy apps like Visual Studio (not Code) and Altium (ee cad) are noticably slower…

Steam Deck is a Windows emulator ignoring the lessons of Windows emulation on OS/2.

The target platform keeps being Windows x86/x64 in what game developers are concerned.

Since Windows CE days for ARM, the amount of device sales have hardly been spectacular, hence Project Volterra, which isn't taking the world of Windows development by storm in any way.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#27

Post by lotsofpulp »

pjmlp wrote: post #25
lotsofpulp wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not know about 80%, but I went into a Bank of America last year to get a certified check, and the employee did everything for me via an iPad. I have also seen hotel employees use property management system software on iPads, no on premise server or Windows required. I would not be surprised if there is a lot of opportunity for change here. It is just so much easier to train and troubleshoot on a machine that has…

America is one of the few Apple holdouts, as well as countries in similar wage levels. The majority of the world among 195 recognised countries + others, isn't as lucky.

The context is about the value of x86 versus ARM. Whether it be Apple or Google or whoever, the crux of the matter is that locked down ARM end user devices are more viable and cheaper than in previous decades due to prevalence of broadband internet, which is available globally.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#28

Post by rektide »

adastra22 wrote: post #14
donmcronald wrote: post #8

I’m bullish on Intel even with their current struggles. I think owning their own infrastructure will pay off in the future when competitors are getting squeezed by fabs playing supply side economic games.

Intel is outsourcing manufacturing to TSMC though?

Some chips yes. Their current dGPU.

Intel at least can still package chips themselves, unlike many outfits. And they have quite the advanced toolkit for doing so, with expertise in EIMB, Foveros, and others.

The majority of their chips are still in-house.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#29

Post by awestroke »

m3drano wrote: post #13
awestroke wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're the CEO of Intel? Nobody ever asks for a pay cut. If anything, they'll do some moronic layoffs get a fat bonus for it

Tim Cook has.

No. The board of directors gave Tim Cook feedback on his compensation, he responded with a new compensation level in line with the feedback, the board voted it through, and Tim Cook accepted the decision. It was not on his own initiative.

Re: Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

#30

Post by isignal »

Their latest generation chips are comparable in value to the AMD equivalent. Power per watt is getting better but not as good as Apple chips. Is the revenue loss mainly because they also seem to be slashing prices to attract market share back? Technology wise their latest generation chips seem to be demonstrating that they can equalize to AMD even with an outdated fab process.
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