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Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

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Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#81

Post by smegger001 »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #62
alexb_ wrote: post #57

AI is not the issue here. There is this very large assumption that just so happens to underpin a VERY large part of the tech industry, not just Google. It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it, ad revenue will always increase, and that the market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth that it is today. But what happens w…

> But what happens when marketing spend goes down (as it does in a recession)? What happens when customers aren't willing to pay as much for your advertising product (as happens in a recession)? What happens when borrowed money can't be secured easily, and debts come due (once again, as happens in a recession)? Typically - what happens is - central banks lower interest rates until they're negative in real yields - an…

that only works if people A) still trust the underlying currency and B) you don't create hyperinflation. What happens in the future when the global economy isn't denominated in petrodollars?

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#82

Post by cpeterso »

varispeed wrote: post #3

All big corporations have to be broken up. They have ill influence on everything and they are what many describe symptoms of late stage capitalism and our failure to regulate. They are like a player of Monopoly who bought everything. Alphabet shouldn't exist in its current form and so Apple, Amazon and many other corporations.

How is a "big corporation" defined? Limiting the number of employees a company has (1000? 10,000? 100,000?) would have interesting effects. Companies might be less likely to hire junior people. Bigger companies would need to outsource or hire contractors to avoid hitting their employee limit. There would be competition among companies providing outsourcing or contractor services. That could be good for companies outsourcing work (having more choices), but there would be a lot of market inefficiencies.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#83

Post by endisneigh »

People who complain about Google remind me of the meme “no one goes there anymore - it’s too full.”

Google has a lot of legitimate headwinds, but honestly I don’t think antitrust or AI competitors are them.

The legitimate “destruction” of legitimacy on the internet, thus making Search more error prone is an issue. Closed off ecosystems such as apple is an issue.

The antitrust case is a big deal, but it’s unlikely Google would be broken up due to it.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#84

Post by jefftk »

labrador wrote: post #2

I tried to imagine an ad in chat output by asking ChatGPT a question and then making up an ad: Q: What is superglue? A: Super glue, also known as cyanoacrylate, is a type of adhesive that forms a strong bond quickly and can be used on a variety of surfaces. It is often used for small repairs, such as broken ceramics or toys, and can also be used in crafts and other projects. Super glue is available in liquid or gel f…

Then they'd need sponsored content disclosures.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#85

Post by alexb_ »

smoldesu wrote: post #4

But Alphabet will probably be fine. YouTube and Android are still billion-user products that aren't being displaced with AI, and their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much by this either. So what's the scoop? I use ChatGPT, it hasn't replaced my search engine. They're insisting that search is obsoleted with AI (and Google is spooked internally) but I have yet to see any research-based evidence supporting…

YouTube being a billion user product has nothing to do with how successful they are. My free service of "Contact me and I will give you a dollar" can grow to billions of users if you borrow enough money, and don't care at all about actually making it back.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#86

Post by xnx »

alexb_ wrote: post #57

AI is not the issue here. There is this very large assumption that just so happens to underpin a VERY large part of the tech industry, not just Google. It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it, ad revenue will always increase, and that the market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth that it is today. But what happens w…

It's OK if marketing spend goes down as long as digital continues to steal from non-digital advertising. Example: Advertising money spent on barely-targeted billboards and TV commercials could move to digital substitutes. This is some of what Google is trying to do with YouTube purchasing the rights for some NFL games.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#87

Post by Karunamon »

randmeerkat wrote: post #80
Karunamon wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, as a paid service who directly sells their primary product rather than a data mining, anti-privacy homunculus whose most famous product is merely a means to an end, an account and payment is required. This is strictly better than Google.

DuckDuckGo is 100% privacy focused, free, and doesn’t require an account or credit card to use.

They are privacy focused in as much as they don't track you themselves, they just hand you off to Microsoft to be tracked.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/24/ddg-microsoft-tracking-blo...

Their founder is also on record as "down ranking misinformation", which is not a judgment call I want my search engine making. Relevance and truth are two different things.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#88

Post by alexb_ »

xnx wrote: post #86
alexb_ wrote: post #57

AI is not the issue here. There is this very large assumption that just so happens to underpin a VERY large part of the tech industry, not just Google. It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it, ad revenue will always increase, and that the market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth that it is today. But what happens w…

It's OK if marketing spend goes down as long as digital continues to steal from non-digital advertising. Example: Advertising money spent on barely-targeted billboards and TV commercials could move to digital substitutes. This is some of what Google is trying to do with YouTube purchasing the rights for some NFL games.

Digital can steal all they want but if the thing you have attached to the ad ends up costing more than the ad gives you, market share means nothing. All this means is you lose even more money.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#89

Post by efsavage »

alexb_ wrote: post #57

AI is not the issue here. There is this very large assumption that just so happens to underpin a VERY large part of the tech industry, not just Google. It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it, ad revenue will always increase, and that the market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth that it is today. But what happens w…

> It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it

This is mostly true. If it wasn't worth it, businesses wouldn't spend money on it. At my last startup we spent money on ads that were worth it, for us, so we stopped. We also found ads that were worth it, so we spent more.

> ad revenue will always increase

Ad revenue is cyclical, it's often the first thing to get cut and the first thing to come back, but it's always going to be there in some form barring a completely new economy.

> the market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth that it is today.

Advertising shifts around from time to time (e.g. print->TV->online), but it seems unlikely that it's not going to be digital for the foreseeable future, and targeted will likely always outperform non-targeted. That's not to say it will stay at any particular company/property/app/etc. but unfortunately at this stage it's probably only going to concentrate and migrate from one behemoth to another like it has for most of the history of the industry.

(I work for Google but not in AI, search or ads)

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