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Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gamblers fallacy is about independent probably - there are cyclical natural catastrophes.
> there are cyclical natural catastrophes That sounds very made up.
> The asteroid was discovered by amateur astronomer Gennadiy Borisov, discoverer of the interstellar comet 2I/Borisov, from his MARGO observatory in Nauchnyi, Crimea, on Saturday, Jan. 21. Discovered 5 days before its closest approach. It’s amazing how much “stuff” is out there to learn, and how something can sneak in so “close”.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gamblers fallacy is about independent probably - there are cyclical natural catastrophes.
> there are cyclical natural catastrophes That sounds very made up.
This is HN, I can be cynical, right? Allow me to air one of my pet peeves: articles that make the threat of an asteroid collision with Earth something we should be afraid of. (Oh, and films of course.) I never understood why anyone should give it any more than even a passing thought. As a layman my understanding is that the last great extinction event from an asteroid was like (Wikipedia tells me) 66 million years ag…
> The asteroid was discovered by amateur astronomer Gennadiy Borisov, discoverer of the interstellar comet 2I/Borisov, from his MARGO observatory in Nauchnyi, Crimea, on Saturday, Jan. 21. Discovered 5 days before its closest approach. It’s amazing how much “stuff” is out there to learn, and how something can sneak in so “close”.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gamblers fallacy is about independent probably - there are cyclical natural catastrophes.
> there are cyclical natural catastrophes That sounds very made up.
So the notion was certainly a reasonable one even if not ultimately true.
> The asteroid was discovered by amateur astronomer Gennadiy Borisov, discoverer of the interstellar comet 2I/Borisov, from his MARGO observatory in Nauchnyi, Crimea, on Saturday, Jan. 21. Discovered 5 days before its closest approach. It’s amazing how much “stuff” is out there to learn, and how something can sneak in so “close”.
Imagine standing in a field on a moonless night while someone shines a flashlight at you from one direction. You are told you are surrounded by a number of people whom you can't see and that they will now proceed to throw rocks at you ranging in size from pebbles to bricks. That's roughly the level of anxiety you should have about our current situation.
This is HN, I can be cynical, right? Allow me to air one of my pet peeves: articles that make the threat of an asteroid collision with Earth something we should be afraid of. (Oh, and films of course.) I never understood why anyone should give it any more than even a passing thought. As a layman my understanding is that the last great extinction event from an asteroid was like (Wikipedia tells me) 66 million years ag…
Your comment isn't cynical, it is more akin to a lucid perspective of a set of threats.
The economy and threats to democratic process are more worrisome -- and yet at the same time, much more within our capability to fix than an asteroid strike.
For a lucid fictional presentation of an asteroid strike, I recommend "Lucifer's Hammer" by Niven and Pournelle.^1