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Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

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Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#231
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be honest being swallowed into a jet engine is as quick of a death as you can get

Sometimes. Probably most of the time. But not always. Petty Officer JD Bridges on a US Navy aircraft carrier got sucked into the intake of a fighter jet. Somehow his body got wedged in such a way that he did not go through the engine and managed to climb out a few seconds later. Video of the incident in question, also an interview with him the next day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GF3Iz7b95-8&t=46s

As I recall, along with getting somewhat wedged, his helmet come off and was digested by the engine.

Which is one rapid method of equalising pressure at the intake and exhaust.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#232
post #217
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That number can't be right. 98% of the earth doesn't have primary radar coverage, let alone secondary (transponder) coverage. ATC radar is line of sight. At an altitude of 40,000 feet, you're beyond the radio horizon and lose coverage after about 380 miles - and that's the theoretical best case. Oceanic air traffic control is primarily a non-radar environment, using procedural separation. Even over land, most of Cana…

The newer systems that have come online over the past decade or so (partially in response to 370) actually use the iridium satelites

These systems are using ADS-B and are only designed for operational/informational purposes so far, as far as I know.

They are not used for air traffic control or other safety-critical purposes.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to learn about Helios Airways Flight 522 crash

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

Oh.. Why _did_ I click on that ? :-(

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#234
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd rate the ability of the US Gov't to successfully keep something like that a secret to be roughly zero, plus or minus zero.

> I'd rate the ability of the US Gov't to successfully keep something like that a secret to be roughly zero, plus or minus zero. You'd be very wrong. There are hundreds (thousands? tens of thousands?) classified missions going on all the time involving large amount of people. And aside for the exceedingly rare whistleblower, all of them are kept secret for decades or more until they get declassified (sometimes never)…

As I said, 'like that.' It is difficult to imagine a reasonable comparison between all of the mundane secret missions going on every day, and shooting down an airliner. This is on the level of 9/11 conspiracies. It's just not possible for something that huge to stay secret for long.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#235
post #198

> But Sherlock Holmes was right: once we have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. This matter isn't entertainment fiction, and nobody involved is Sherlock Holmes. Hundreds of people died. Amateurs publicly casting blame on one of the presumed dead seems unfair to the individual accused, and insensitive to the families. Especially when it depends on bits like this:…

I'm sympathetic to your point of view -- I remember the "independent investigators on reddit" wrongly accusing Sunil Tripathi of being the perpetrator of the Boston Bombing and causing his family a great deal of distress. But the author provides a few salient examples of why relying on "professional investigators" has come up short:

> The official report also did its best to paper over a number of failings that contributed to the plane not being found. In addition to the long delay in informing authorities — caused by missteps at the Kuala Lumpur and Ho Chi Minh City control centers, as well as at Malaysia Airlines — criticism should have been levied at the Malaysian military. Why didn’t they intercept the unidentified aircraft as it was crossing the north of the country? The military claimed it was because the plane wasn’t a threat. But how could they have known that unless they had identified it as MH370, rather than a foreign incursion? And if they had identified it as MH370, why didn’t they tell anyone until days after the crash? The most likely explanation was that the military simply wasn’t monitoring its own radar at the time that the plane flew through Malaysian airspace. But admitting this would expose a massive security vulnerability by revealing Malaysia’s military to be dangerously incompetent. Probably for national security reasons, the official report had nothing to say about this at all.

Seems like this is a pretty serious omission.

and

> Zaharie’s social life was also not as smooth as Malaysian authorities portrayed it to be. A combination of the leaked police report and interviews with people who knew him revealed that he had separated from his wife on an informal basis and was living alone in the family home.

So in essence Malaysian police were obfuscating the facts around the pilot, for whatever reason they may have. Perhaps they concluded based on further research that the pilot was probably guiltless. But whatever the reason, we do know that what they said in public diverges from what they found in private.

It seems to me that independent investigation and open source intelligence of this kind can be useful when there may be reasons for the official investigators to cover up certain parts of the story.

Lastly, I think there is a substantial difference between a crowd of people online with no real investigatory track record accusing someone (a la Sunil Tripathi) in the days/hours/minutes after the incident, and someone with a proven track record of credible investigatory reporting and some subject matter expertise, laying out some mixture of facts/theories/conclusions (that have already been circulating online) ten years after the fact.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#236
post #192
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think closer to 80-90% of all landmass has "active" surveillance, with another 40-50% of sea / oceans. Most of the South Pacific / South Atlantic / Southern Ocean (Antarctic); a lot of the North Pacific / North Atlantic / Indian / Arctic outside of the major islands and direct routes has nearly no coverage.

I think even this number is high. 80-90% sounds about right for the mainland US and Europe, but definitely isn't true elsewhere. Canada probably has ~50% radar coverage, and oceans have essentially 0% once you're beyond line of sight from from the coast. (And this is if you're a jet flying at high altitude. If you're down where smaller aircraft fly, I can point to areas on the US west coast that don't have radar or r…

> Heck, there's parts of the mainland US that don't even have NEXRAD weather radar coverage.

Is that a good comparison, though? It seems like NOAA funding for the NEXRAD sites is perpetually inadequate. The one in Portland occasionally has outages that last a while. I would have guessed that civilian air control radar is better funded than NEXRAD, and military radar probably so well funded that every square inch of CONUS is covered by at least one.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#237
post #29

Fascinating article. I had a chuckle at this excerpt: >The Malaysian investigators did look into whether the cargo could have started a fire, noting that it consisted mainly of ripe mangosteen fruits along with a small number of lithium batteries. Extensive attempts by the investigators to get mangosteen juice to react with the batteries and trigger a fire were unsuccessful. I'm sure plenty of people here have spent…

I have no flying experience but if there was a fire in the cargo hold wouldn't the crew at least send a message? I thought this flight veered off the flight path before disappearing

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#238
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd rate the ability of the US Gov't to successfully keep something like that a secret to be roughly zero, plus or minus zero.

> I'd rate the ability of the US Gov't to successfully keep something like that a secret to be roughly zero, plus or minus zero. You'd be very wrong. There are hundreds (thousands? tens of thousands?) classified missions going on all the time involving large amount of people. And aside for the exceedingly rare whistleblower, all of them are kept secret for decades or more until they get declassified (sometimes never)…

> There are hundreds (thousands? tens of thousands?) classified missions going on all the time involving large amount of people.

Not many of them involve murdering an entire planeload of civilians.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#239
post #29

Fascinating article. I had a chuckle at this excerpt: >The Malaysian investigators did look into whether the cargo could have started a fire, noting that it consisted mainly of ripe mangosteen fruits along with a small number of lithium batteries. Extensive attempts by the investigators to get mangosteen juice to react with the batteries and trigger a fire were unsuccessful. I'm sure plenty of people here have spent…

I also imagine that the first attempt was behind some sort of explosion-proof wall because It Just Might(tm).

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You sound like you have a problem with that, but I can't fathom what alternative course you'd rather them pursue.

It is just a note. I don't mean it to sound anything other than what Wikipedia itself states. I see a tonne of "Wikipedia agrees" but none of "Wikipedia is a living document" and it isn't its place to be a gospel of truth...

You see none of "Wikipedia is a living document"? I think people are pretty aware.

You see a lot more cases of people quoting Wikipedia on a topic than talking about Wikipedia's trustworthiness because it adds a second dimension. It's [Wikipedia, Topic] vs. [Wikipedia].

I might look up 100 different things on Wikipedia. The fact that Wikipedia has all sorts of flaws is something I only needed to learn once.

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