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Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

admiralcloudberg.medium.com

101–110 of 457 posts

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#101

"Before Fariq can attempt to get back into the cockpit, Zaharie reaches up and flips the pressurization switch, cutting off bleed air to the cabin. The airplane rapidly begins to depressurize." I really want to believe that a single switch doesn't control whether people in the back of the plane can breather or not...

You might want to learn about Helios Airways Flight 522 crash

That one haunts my nightmares.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#102
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feel like if we believe this was a pilot suicide then it would also be important to try to address that - though I'm not sure how unless we fully automated (and people liked that). There has been a German and Chinese flight since with 100+ fatalities where this happened. Given how few crashes there are on commercial flights its one of the biggest risk factors today.

Risk has to be put in context. It's one of the biggest risks, where all the risks are fantastically low against number of flights and passenger/miles. All airline risks are lower than driving. I would have said the 787 lithium battery risk was more concerning personally. Or the 737 Max problem.

[dead]

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#104

Hearing about all the painstaking analysis of this flight made me wonder something: If you look deeply enough, how frequent are inexplicable situations? That is, if you took all the info from a normal flight, and cut it off at the halfway point and gave it to a group of enthusiastic investigators, would they find aspects that contradicted or truly did not make sense? My guess is they would. This is not to say MH370 w…

It's unlikely, since about 98% of the Earth has transponder coverage, so you at least have position and what the aircraft think's it's altitude is, with pretty good precision and sample rate. It's only in a few spots in the middle the ocean that this doesn't exist.

This was also relevant in that Airbus crash from maybe 15 years ago between South America and Africa.

This is not a problem on the main to/from North America routes because there are enough populated islands along the way (Iceland, Greenland, Hawaii, Guam, etc)

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#105
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feel like if we believe this was a pilot suicide then it would also be important to try to address that - though I'm not sure how unless we fully automated (and people liked that). There has been a German and Chinese flight since with 100+ fatalities where this happened. Given how few crashes there are on commercial flights its one of the biggest risk factors today.

Risk has to be put in context. It's one of the biggest risks, where all the risks are fantastically low against number of flights and passenger/miles. All airline risks are lower than driving. I would have said the 787 lithium battery risk was more concerning personally. Or the 737 Max problem.

To be fair, the oft cited “air travel is safer than cars” statistic is on a passenger mileage basis. When you pack an order of magnitude more people at a time going an order of magnitude faster than a cad it looks super safe.

If you compare it on an hourly basis it is still safer but not nearly as safe as people would like to think. Especially if you add in small commercial/charter planes

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part where he had flown the route in a simulator is compelling as well. What a long article though

Except why go through all that trouble to take a very weird route to avoid detection and "disappear"? Every other pilot suicide has involved just pointing down. Why would the pilot need to make his suicide plausibly deniable?

Deciding to end your life by committing mass murder is already hugely irrational, trying to analyse any further moves such a state of mind had planned out from the viewpoint of rationality is nonsensical.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#107
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Audio is super cheap, and easy to index. Releasing it all has zero downside yet enables better investigation. Even things like dead-air pops/hums could potentially offer clues. (And an unbroken timeline is important in and of itself.) Someone once reconstructed an entire helicopter's location telemetry just from the dead-air hum recorded by a video camera. Don't underestimate the value of any piece of information. It…

Do you know more about that helicopter story?

https://www.windytan.com/2014/02/mystery-signal-from-helicop...

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#108
post #72

As someone who doesn't have intuition about these things: what are the chances that an 777 could have crashed and yet many years later very very few of its debris showed up or were spotted anywhere in the world (also factoring in intense search efforts around the most likely places where it crashed)? Is this one of these 1 in a billion chance thing or is it not as crazy as it sounds? Like even if you were intentional…

The Earth and the Oceans are really, really big. The amount of the plane that we've found feels about right for going down in he middle of the Indian Ocean. The bulk of it is going to be sunk on the seafloor.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#109

Better question is what has been done to prevent the next MH370 and I bet the answer is nothing much, it took a back burner once the story was out of the headlines. There are only a thousand reasons aircraft operators might want to know where their planes are and if there are any issues. I’m sure that the gps position and black box data could be streamed over radio and/or satellite.

Your question is literally answered in the article: > Even without finding the plane, a number of lessons have been drawn from the disappearance of MH370. Many of the responses to the disappearance centered on the fact that in the 21st century, commercial airliners should not just disappear. In the interest of knowing where every plane is at all times, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) began requir…

Note that none of those things would "prevent the next MH370", only be able to locate the wreckage faster.

There isn't much that can be done to "prevent" incidents like this.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#110
post #15

Better question is what has been done to prevent the next MH370 and I bet the answer is nothing much, it took a back burner once the story was out of the headlines. There are only a thousand reasons aircraft operators might want to know where their planes are and if there are any issues. I’m sure that the gps position and black box data could be streamed over radio and/or satellite.

Huh? A lot[0,1,2] has been done considering how little we know about what has actually happened and a trivial search would enlighten you. Also, real-time streaming of GPS position for the thousands of flights in the air at any given time is not a trivial problem (but technology is improving and ICAO is pushing for such solution[3]). [0] https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/08/us/mh370-fifth-anniversary-ma... [1] https://www.c…

Satellite phone text messages cost about $1 each. Sending one every 5th minute seems sufficient. That's $120 for a 10 hour flight. Seems technically quite doable with existing technology at a reasonable price?

I imagine there are optimization that could be done to reduce the cost further. Big customers with constant rate usage can probably negotiate a more favorable price etc.

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