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Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

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Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#61
post #24

Just noticing the medium author, this guy posts fantastic breakdowns of plane crashes on r/catastrophicfailure Have to say the simulator part makes me lean heavily towards the pilot crashing it purposefully, from the article - "The most widely reported piece of evidence tying Zaharie to the disappearance was a course he had charted on his home flight simulator about a month before the crash. Zaharie had a number of h…

'Black box' is referring to the lack of visibility inside the box and to the fact that you can't tamper with it, what goes in stays in.

Flight recorders are called black boxes because they originally were black-colored boxes.

"Black box" in the sense that you are describing is an unrelated term.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#62
post #26
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's about that easy. Of course, masks are a-gonna drop, and flight attendants are going to put on portable oxygen bottles... and of course the crew should descend. But the whole plane architecture is built on the idea that you're trusting the people in the front with everyone's lives.

I think the point being that accidentally hitting this switch is probably of some concern.

That's some accident. The pressurization controls are overhead in a not very central location.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#63
post #24

Just noticing the medium author, this guy posts fantastic breakdowns of plane crashes on r/catastrophicfailure Have to say the simulator part makes me lean heavily towards the pilot crashing it purposefully, from the article - "The most widely reported piece of evidence tying Zaharie to the disappearance was a course he had charted on his home flight simulator about a month before the crash. Zaharie had a number of h…

If you enjoy this sort of thing, I'd encourage you to check out this guy.

https://www.youtube.com/user/blancolirio

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#64
post #46

Relevant book (open access): Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370 Authors: Sam Davey , Neil Gordon , Ian Holland , Mark Rutten , Jason Williams https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-10-0379-0

Funnily enough I'm in the process of reading Blind Man's Bluff in which similar techniques were employed to locate subs that sank.

ADDED: The loss of the Scorpion described in that book reminds me of this as well. While some of the details related to what exact sort of torpedo failure caused the Scorpion sinking is a matter of debate, the betting money is on some sort of torpedo failure rather than a Soviet tit-for-tat or other complicated scenario for which there's no real evidence.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#65
To me, the most interesting thing about all of this is that civilian airports don't really have radar. You can disappear from an ATC screen just by turning off a transponder. If they'd had radar we would at least of known which way the plane went. A curious controller could have asked "unidentified object at height X, region Y" who they were and why they were in controlled airspace without a transponder on.

The article even implies the controllers themselves did not know this:

>Initially, no one noticed the sudden disappearance of the airplane. After handing the flight over to Ho Chi Minh control, the Malaysian controller looked away from his screen, and when he looked back, the plane was gone. He assumed that it had flown out of radar range and returned to his duties without a second thought.

But there was no radar range limit. There was only a transponder range limit (or more likely an edge of the screen).

>In Vietnam, controllers expected the plane to contact them, but it did not, and they couldn’t find it on radar either. Controllers in Ho Chi Minh City began trying to raise the plane on radio without success. For 18 minutes, they sent out a series of increasingly desperate calls: would MH370 please respond? Could any planes in the area contact MH370? The only answer was silence.

So even when they were actively looking for it, it was invisible to their "radar". True radar would have told them there was a plane-sized metal object in their airspace even if it refused radio contact and had no transponder...

It turns out you can make an entire plane full of people completely invisible by throwing 1 switch. Who knew?

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#66
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MH370 likely had systems that enable tracking deliberately disabled by someone in the cockpit (or they all failed at the same time). That's not part of the threat model for good reasons.

seems quite addressable if that was the case? just don't let humans disable tracking, what's a sane use case for that anyway?

For safety reasons airliners must have circuit breakers that allow disabling every electrical system in case of a fire, short circuit, or other dangerous malfunction.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#67

Better question is what has been done to prevent the next MH370 and I bet the answer is nothing much, it took a back burner once the story was out of the headlines. There are only a thousand reasons aircraft operators might want to know where their planes are and if there are any issues. I’m sure that the gps position and black box data could be streamed over radio and/or satellite.

> Better question is what has been done to prevent the next MH370 and I bet the answer is nothing much, it took a back burner once the story was out of the headlines.

Sometimes they retire the flight number. Then it can't happen again. Looks like that's the case here [1]

[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/03/13/289800435...

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#68
Hearing about all the painstaking analysis of this flight made me wonder something: If you look deeply enough, how frequent are inexplicable situations? That is, if you took all the info from a normal flight, and cut it off at the halfway point and gave it to a group of enthusiastic investigators, would they find aspects that contradicted or truly did not make sense? My guess is they would.

This is not to say MH370 was without incident, only that apparent contradiction may be unavoidable if you look closely enough at anything.

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#69

The article doesn't mention the amateur ham radio interference pattern research data to figure out the flight path. See this: https://youtu.be/Jq-d4Kl8Xh4

The methodology of using aircraft scatter of radio signals encoded in the WSPR protocol is described in [1]. I was so sceptical when I heard about this - mainly due to the normally mangled reporting in mainstream media - that I really didn't think there was any merit in it.

The thought of being able to detect aircraft scatter using very low power HF signals over variable ionospheric propagation conditions at long range seemed almost impossible to me. The use of the WSPR (Weak Signal Propagation Reporting) [2] network and its highly efficient protocol is what changed my mind.

I'm much less of a sceptic having read the basis of the paper, at it appears there have been proving flights to evidence the technique can work. I haven't had time to research other workers who have reproduced the results, so would be interested if anyone has any links.

[1] https://www.mh370search.com/2022/03/14/mh370-wspr-technical-...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software)

Re: Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021)

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what, like he somehow smuggled a parachute onboard and then survived a late-night ditch into the middle of the ocean?

More like he asphyxiated everyone on the plane, including the rich heiress with her priceless jewelry and millions in cash, flew over a known location where he had previously towed a get-away boat, stole all of the other valuables on the plane, and skydived into the perfect crime.

Maybe he was related to D.B. Cooper?
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