I'm trying to understand how big of a deal ChatGPT and the like is or isn't. Even people in AI don't seem to agree on whether it's going to change everything or it's overhyped and not a major advancement. Which is it? Or somewhere in the middle? "if you think AI chatter has reached an annoying level right now you're in for something else. it's going to be the only thing on anybody's mind starting shortly... i'm findi…
ChatGPT made me rethink my assessment of how close we are to general AI. I was of the opinion that we need some major architectural innovations to actually get to general AI and while I think we still need some huge discoveries, I think ChatGPT was one of those milestones.
It's fantastic at generating content that on first glance looks remarkably right, but always fails fine inspection.
All I've seen from LLMs is much better demos of the types of funny things markov chains were generating two decades ago (anyone remember the various academic paper generators?). However I have yet to see anything that stands out as really remarkable.
My read is that people want to see incredible progress towards strong AI, and LLMs do a great job of letting people feel like they're seeing that if they want to.
I suspect in 5 years we'll largely have forgotten about LLMs and in 10 they'll come back into popularity because techniques will become more efficient and computing power will increase enough that people can train them on their home PCs... but they'll still just be a fun novelty.