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Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

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Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#431

Post by shagie »

jackmott42 wrote: post #379
rich_sasha wrote: post #210

I find it weird how hostile to hydrogen the "renewable energy gang" is. The story of how renewables take over the world and displace fossil fuels and nuclear totally relies on storage, in some cases seasonal storage, IE overproducing in summer and holding on to the energy til the end of winter. Does hydrogen work for it? Well, maybe, it could, there are unresolved issues but hey we are trying to do science here. It's…

It is pretty simple: 1. To make hydrogen you need energy 2. If you just put the energy in a battery you lose less energy than you do if you make hydrogen So hydrogen only makes sense if #2 should change, and that is fundamentally impossible, or if for whatever other reason no battery exists that is suitable for the application.

The issue in Japan that hydrogen seems to have an advantage is the storing of that energy and the time/space required to to transfer that stored energy (be it hydrogen or electrical energy) into a vehicle.

Things like "most homes in Japan don't have a convenient place to put a DC charger or external electrical outlets" and "the larger scale Tesla charging places don't fit in existing infrastructure."

This sort of home parking places (https://www.google.com/maps/@35.6772271,139.70988,66626m/dat... ) don't match the American style "room enough for a car and space on the side with power for lights and a garage door opener.

On the flip side, a h2 station in Japan has about the same footprint as a regular gas station ( https://youtu.be/UHft5Lbf2Ho ). That doesn't present a "it takes 40 minutes to get an 80% charge at a dedicated super charger station" but rather something closer to the "fill up the tank" of ICE cars.

If this switches to the US, the H2 infrastructure compared to electrical infrastructure (Note: Japan is kind of weird there too - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Japan#Tr... - "Electricity transmission in Japan is unusual because the country is divided for historical reasons into two regions each running at a different mains frequency. Eastern Japan has 50 Hz networks while western Japan has 60 Hz networks."), population density, and the ability to charge at home makes the idea of a H2 based vehicle throughly impractical.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#432

Post by rgmerk »

slackfan wrote: post #316
rgmerk wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your strategy involves massive investment in nuclear you don’t need hydrogen in Japan. Northern Europe and Canada have very seasonally-dependant energy demand that inversely correlates with solar availability. Japan has hot humid summers that require the use of air conditioners, so energy demand doesn’t vary nearly as much over the year. In most of the country you also don’t get cold enough to worry about heat pum…

Counterpoint, there is an argument to be made for Hydrogen-fueled IC engines. Massive investment in nuclear does not solve the issue with lithium required for batteries (nevermind the environmental impact of such). I seem to recall Mazda doing a thing around their RX-8 with dual-fueling, but that went nowhere a decade and a half ago. But hey, why go for a significantly cheaper from a cap-ex perspective option where r…

Yeah, in theory you can run existing vehicles off hydrogen, but hydrogen internal combustion engines have, thus far, sucked. BMW tried this with a hydrogen-fuelled 7 series V12 back in the mid 2000s. They could only get about 150 horsepower out of that massive V12. They got well over 400 out of the original gasoline version of the engine.

As for lithium, I’m old enough to remember when many were convinced Peak Oil was going to be a Big Problem.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#433

Post by defrost »

rgmerk wrote: post #432
slackfan wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint, there is an argument to be made for Hydrogen-fueled IC engines. Massive investment in nuclear does not solve the issue with lithium required for batteries (nevermind the environmental impact of such). I seem to recall Mazda doing a thing around their RX-8 with dual-fueling, but that went nowhere a decade and a half ago. But hey, why go for a significantly cheaper from a cap-ex perspective option where r…

Yeah, in theory you can run existing vehicles off hydrogen, but hydrogen internal combustion engines have, thus far, sucked. BMW tried this with a hydrogen-fuelled 7 series V12 back in the mid 2000s. They could only get about 150 horsepower out of that massive V12. They got well over 400 out of the original gasoline version of the engine. As for lithium, I’m old enough to remember when many were convinced Peak Oil wa…

Peak Oil itself (which has almost certainly been reached) was never going to be the problem .. it's the downhill run that follows, and there's every reason to think that will bring problems and conflict, all the more reason to shift to non fossil fuels.

For interest; Predicting the timing of peak oil

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_...

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#434

Post by rr808 »

yuppie_scum wrote: post #75
rr808 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RAV4 Prime is awesome and huge wait list. PHEV is a great solution, it doesn't require these huge heavy batteries.

But it does require hauling around an engine, transmission, gas tank, etc that you aren’t using half the time and require periodic service. The question really is, does adding that weight and complexity offset the weight and cost of moar battery? Especially as the charging infrastructure continues to improve in more populated regions?

Toyota RAV4 ICE weighs 3450 lbs, the RAV4 Prime weighs 4,250 lbs., and a Tesla Model Y long range is 4,416 lbs.

Maybe ICE is best for the environment. :)

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#435

Post by panick21_ »

moloch-hai wrote: post #399
panick21_ wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nuclear takes far too long; And yet nuclear is the only tech that has proven to decarbonize a major industrial economy within just a few decades. But of course it takes to long. When in reality it has not been proven that anybody has ever used solar and wind to de-carbonize a major economy. But somehow everybody knows that it is 'fast'. Germany could have literally gone to 100% nuclear within the last 20 years and…

... and would be in the position France is in now, with a fleet of obsolete contraptions that will cost further billions to decommission, and with nothing on the horizon to replace them.

France fleet is not obsolete. They can survive for another 40 year easy. Sadly the French 2nd generation pissed away all the great work the first generation did and neglected the fleet they had. They are treating the fleet lie the giving tree.

Ironically because the French were so blessed with so many reactors, they were one of the few nations that didn't use their reactors very well. The Germans were actually better at using their reactors.

The French since the 90s are just as anti-nuclear as everybody else and they have done everything to destroy the amazing fleet they have, and only now realize how incredibly fucking stupid that was. They even forced the utility to collect money from the nuclear fleet and invest in solar. And they forced the utility to sell of nuclear base load at bargain bin prices and then force them to buy that power back at high prices.

And its amazing how anti-nuclear people can look down on France when literally every day they produce green cheap energy for all their people. And they have been saving CO2 for 40+ years, and that is worth more then any CO2 we are saving now.

Almost every other country should envy the French position.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#436

Post by panick21_ »

moloch-hai wrote: post #396
panick21_ wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny somehow France had green energy decades ago and France had low energy prices for decades. Really crazy how expensive nuclear is. Specially now where you have Germany who spend lots on renewables using many 100s of billions to buffer the impacts of their policies. For that price they could have just transformed to nuclear. Germany could literally have spent the same amount of money over the last 20 and next 5 ye…

France is better known for high taxes than for low energy prices... Maybe there is a connection. No one, anywhere in the world, has ever fielded a nuke not massively propped up by public money. Germany would today be in a much worse position if they had spent what they did on renewables on upgrading their ramshackle old nuke contraptions instead. France, notably, imported power through summer.

> France is better known for high taxes than for low energy prices... Maybe there is a connection.

No there isn't actually. The French pay high taxes because of their social services.

If you actually inform yourself you would know that the cost of the nuclear fleet went on the books of the utility, not the French state and has been paid down by the utility for 40+ years now DESPITE the very low energy prices.

> Germany would today be in a much worse position if they had spent what they did on renewables on upgrading their ramshackle old nuke contraptions instead.

Germany was actually one of the best operates of nuclear power. Their reactor had amazing uptime.

> France, notably, imported power through summer.

And the reason is that the Anti-nuclear idiots who were in power in the French state for the last 30 years took cheap green energy for granted and instead of doing the needed maintenance, they forced the utility to invest in solar and support fossil fuel (yes really).

And in fact in 2015 the French state literally basically forced threw a law to turn off large parts of the nuclear fleet in 2025. This lead to even more maintenance not being done.

This is a case of the French state shooting itself in the foot and taking for granted what their fathers gave to them and them treating the fleet like shit and just believing the magical pixies of renewables would reliably produce 10s of GW of power for them within a few years.

Germany is literally spending up to a 500 billion $ on a plan to mitigate all the issues with their energy policy, for that they could literally have built a nuclear fleet 2x the size they needed to be 100% green on nuclear.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#437

Post by panick21_ »

Schroedingersat wrote: post #420
panick21_ wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nuclear takes far too long; And yet nuclear is the only tech that has proven to decarbonize a major industrial economy within just a few decades. But of course it takes to long. When in reality it has not been proven that anybody has ever used solar and wind to de-carbonize a major economy. But somehow everybody knows that it is 'fast'. Germany could have literally gone to 100% nuclear within the last 20 years and…

That circle you're running around with the goalposts in is getting very small. Multiple countries are installing more new renewable generation every year than new nuclear has ever gone online. Also it didn't decarbonize france's economy. It partially decarbonized its electricity, this is well under half of the goal. Numerous countries have achieved more with wind and hydro, and the list of countries with higher VRE p…

> It partially decarbonized its electricity, this is well under half of the goal.

Literally no country uses renwales to produce transport fuel.

France decarbonized electricity and has a very high rate of electricity heating in homes. So they are ahead there to and they did that on the back of the nuclear fleet.

> Numerous countries have achieved more with wind and hydro

And even more country have achieved more with hydro and nuclear, such as Sweden or Switzerland.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#438

Post by _hypx »

schiffern wrote: post #408
SigmundA wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>ICE vehicles conquered the world with abysmal efficiencies, they were around 10-15% when they already ruled the roads and the world. Fossil fuel comes out of the ground with the energy already in it, hydrogen doesn't exist in a free form and the energy must be put into it coming from somewhere else. Most hydrogen now comes from natural gas at maybe 75-80% efficiency through reforming, then it must be compressed, the…

Ulf Bossel got it right ~16 years ago. No significant change since then, other than steady improvement in BEVs. https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.amp

Battery technology has utterly stagnated. There has been basically no changes in energy density in over a decade. All "progress" has been in the form of reduced cost, but even that has ended.

PS: Please don't post some Bloomberg article about this. They are wrong and did not correctly reference the state of battery technology back in 2010.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#439

Post by moloch-hai »

panick21_ wrote: post #436
moloch-hai wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France is better known for high taxes than for low energy prices... Maybe there is a connection. No one, anywhere in the world, has ever fielded a nuke not massively propped up by public money. Germany would today be in a much worse position if they had spent what they did on renewables on upgrading their ramshackle old nuke contraptions instead. France, notably, imported power through summer.

> France is better known for high taxes than for low energy prices... Maybe there is a connection. No there isn't actually. The French pay high taxes because of their social services. If you actually inform yourself you would know that the cost of the nuclear fleet went on the books of the utility, not the French state and has been paid down by the utility for 40+ years now DESPITE the very low energy prices. > Germa…

And it would start to come online in 2035. They would burn coal the whole time until then, while renewables cost continued on down below $10/MWh.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#440

Post by Schroedingersat »

panick21_ wrote: post #437
Schroedingersat wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That circle you're running around with the goalposts in is getting very small. Multiple countries are installing more new renewable generation every year than new nuclear has ever gone online. Also it didn't decarbonize france's economy. It partially decarbonized its electricity, this is well under half of the goal. Numerous countries have achieved more with wind and hydro, and the list of countries with higher VRE p…

> It partially decarbonized its electricity, this is well under half of the goal. Literally no country uses renwales to produce transport fuel. France decarbonized electricity and has a very high rate of electricity heating in homes. So they are ahead there to and they did that on the back of the nuclear fleet. > Numerous countries have achieved more with wind and hydro And even more country have achieved more with h…

> Literally no country uses renwales to produce transport fuel.

So didn't decarbonize its economy then. And sweden prodices about as much wind as nuclear.

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