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Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

hydrogeninsight.com

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Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#201
post #84
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hydrogen is a battery with very particular uses cases. In particular: hydrogen is bad for use cases with large numbers of charge/discharge cycles, because the "cost of inefficiency" is proportional to the number of such cycles. However, for use cases with small numbers of charge cycles, like seasonal storage or backup against rare grid outages, hydrogen's big advantage -- the low cost of storing it, vs. typical short…

Let’s assume at scale you’re buying seasonal power for 0$ so efficiency doesn’t matter and selling it at 10c/kWh given 1$/kWh and a once a year discharge you might break even in 10 years which looks fine except... 1$/kWh is only storage for already existing hydrogen. For this application you also need equipment to both produce and burn it which adds to these costs. Hydrogen generation can’t depend on 0$ prices for ve…

Yes, but the producing and burning is not proportional to the amount of energy stored, but to the rate at which the hydrogen is produced or consumed.

In the 100% renewable grid, electricity actually will be in surplus a good part of the time, because so much excess capacity would be installed. This is not the case now, so you can't use the current frequency at which curtailment occurs as some sort of baseline.

Yes, you'd need excess storage so it doesn't run out. Fortunately hydrogen storage is cheap. This is another argument for hydrogen over batteries.

You can run the numbers and see that in a hypothetical system for providing steady power in Germany, including hydrogen storage can cut the total cost nearly in half (subject to assumptions, of course.) Doing it with just wind, solar, and batteries ends up being far more expensive.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Green hydrogen is made from electricity. The cost of green hydrogen is currently high, but it is dropping faster than pretty much any other energy storage technology. Hydrogen storage is an order of magnitude cheaper (or more) than any other tech. It is expensive because of the cost of electrolyzers/fuel-cells that convert between electricity and H2. These costs are dropping fast at efficiencies of 80%+ along with th…

Japan plans to make hydrogen using high-temperature nuclear reactors (HTGR or HTTR). See: https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm...

High temperature hydrogen electrolysis is a proven cheap tech. The main problem is the cost of nuclear in my opinion.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#203
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure I understand this. If you want to build up electric cars you invest in building electric cars. Investing in some other third technology does not get you to electric cars faster.

I think he means that they are intentionally trying to get the government to push hydrogen for the next few years while they are secretly working on electric cars. If the government focuses on electric and spends money building electrical infrastructure, the domestic automakers stand to lose a lot of ground to foreign companies that have already developed electric technology. They don't want a repeat of Tesla install…

Perhaps they are saying this but it still does not make sense to me. Nissan is a Japanese company and has been selling popular EVs since 2011. Japan built out a network of chademo chargers. I just don’t see how focusing on a bad technology could actually be a secret way to invest in EVs. Openly investing in EVs seems like the best way to do that. It just sounds like Occam’s Razor applies here: the people in charge are out of touch and made a bad call.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#204
This is the board of directors behind the entity that publishes this website [1]. I can see mostly Norwegian people, so I suspect there's Norwegian money powering this website, hence Norwegian interests. Norway is very active on the renewables energy market, i.e. it has lots and lots of interests on that market. All that to say that I wouldn't take this article at face value, just another way to try and shift opinion in order to make more money for its owners.

Later edit: The chairman of the board from that website is this lady Anette S. Olsen [2], who's sole proprietor of this company/group, Fred. Olsen & Co. [3], which interests also include the energy market. The company/group is into renewables, this is their website [4], lots of wind farms on their website, I suppose they're into selling that, not hydrogen. As I said, it's easier to follow the money.

[1] [1] https://www.nhst.no/en/about-nhst/board-of-directors-holding...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anette_S._Olsen

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred._Olsen_%26_Co.

[4] https://fredolsenrenewables.com/

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#205
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't know Toyota was a fossil fuel company, or was owned by one? Japan is uniquely trying to make this thing work. They have no domestic oil production, and so few coal mines as to basically be irrelevant: all their fossil fuel is imported. Anywhere else on the planet: sure, this might be another way for big fossil to push for relevancy, but in Japan's case, hydrogen would be something that they can produce thems…

They're a car company committed to keeping the internal combustion engine. They are market leaders in hybrid cars, but have been surpassed in all electric. So they're not a fossil fuel company but their interests are aligned.

This. They've been fighting the EV transition tooth and nails, it really needs to be called out.

I mean, how nice an EV would that new Insight of theirs just released have been? The design is gorgeous. Instead we get yet another hybrid, which makes sense in a good few use cases I guess - primarily related to charger availability - but just puts them further behind on the EV development experience curve.

Edit: And their investments in Hydrogen, doubling down on it along with the Hybrid tech is indeed a great sunk cost fallacy example. Check Toyota's market share in Norway over the past few years for a fun example of consequences.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#206
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Turning electricity into hydrogen and then into motive power for a car is dramatically less efficient than using a battery This is true —- but the total quantity of battery storage potential is utterly dwarfed by the storage potential for gas, in subsurface storage reservoirs and salt caverns. You can store days worth of energy in batteries; you can store a winter’s worth of energy in gas. It’s not a matter of effi…

Storing hydrogen is substantially harder than storing stuff like methane, or CO2, or even O2. Hydrogen's atoms are so small they try to pass through the crystalline lattice of metals, making the hydrogen-enriched layer which is more fragile [1]. Your regular polymer hoses are much more permeable to hydrogen. Hydrogen gas burns with entirely infrared flame, not visible to human eyes [2]. Hydrogen, even highly compress…

Hydrogen is far more energy dense than batteries. For example: for a 800km truck, the difference can be as much as 2 tonnes. https://www.umicore.com/en/newsroom/news/fuel-cells-battery-...

Also, there are ways of storing hydrogen in metal hydrides at room temperature and pressure. This makes a LOT of sense for people who may want to have an option of buying stored energy - such as those who live in apartments without access to the terraces where solar panels can be deployed.

If these metal hydride storage is used similar to how changeable batteries are used, it is conceivable that you could drive up to a place like a fuel station just to change out your metal hydride storage in a matter of a couple of minutes and perhaps even get additional supplementary units packed at the back of the vehicle if they intend to go on a long journey.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2021.6161...

In terms of cost, it is also now possible to use Boron Nitride for storing hydrogen - very cheaply and very safely.

https://www.geelongmanufacturingcouncil.com.au/2022/07/innov...

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long can south Australia power their load from batteries? I thought they had the one 100MWH battery so basically could power 100k house for an hour? And that battery was over 100 million dollars.

South Australia’s incredible week: 104.1 per cent wind and solar over seven days https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australias-incredible-week... South Australia aims to reach 100 per cent “net renewables” within a few years – over a full year – but in the past week it has already done better than that. It would appear they are aiming to export excess renewable power to Victoria (neighbouring state).

I thought we were taking about battery capacity preventing a blackout during a major grid outage and not installed renewable capacity meeting the demand.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#208
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing wrong with internal combustion per se, if electrolysis+ICE works out cheaper than battery in terms of lithium/rare earths/whatever there is no fundamental objection to it.

The fundamental objection is quite real: Distribution. Hydrogen, due to the small size of the atoms, requires perfect seals and even then can slowly penetrate even metal containers. Cooling it enough to liquify it requires extreme temperatures and pressures as to destroy any efficiency gains. Someone has to build that infrastructure, and do it on a national scale, for hydrogen to have even a chance at beating EVs/Hyb…

Worse, hydrogen permeates most metals and embrittles[0] them, too.

Synthetic methane produced by electricity is likely still superior to hydrogen with both suffering terrible inefficiencies, at least methane is easy to transport.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_embrittlement

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#209
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But we can transfer most of them to EVs, including nearly the entire light duty vehicle fleet and short haul trucking. No we can’t. We don’t have the industrial manufacturing capability. Not even by a long shot. And even if we did, we don’t have enough minded minerals to supply the manufactures, and even if we did, we don’t have enough electrical infrastructure to charge all the electric cars. Note this also applie…

> No we can’t. We don’t have the industrial manufacturing capability. Not even by a long shot. And even if we did, we don’t have enough minded minerals to supply the manufactures, and even if we did, we don’t have enough electrical infrastructure to charge all the electric cars. We don't have it today, but none that it is out of reach within a decade or two. Also, EV manufacturing is strictly less complicated than IC…

I don’t think we have a decade or two. We are already at 1.2°C and over 420 PPM CO2. We are already witnessing one of the warmest summers ever despite there being a la niña year. We can’t afford the luxury of a generational shift, and we can’t afford to wait for the production capabilities of electric cars to catch up to demand. We simply have to take what we have and implement it with money and policy. The alternative is a total disasters, what is already a disaster but infinitely worse. And what we have is a tiny bit of electric battery cars (even fewer hydrogen cars) and a lot of buses and trains.

Re: Japan's hydrogen strategy does nothing for decarbonisation: study

#210
I find it weird how hostile to hydrogen the "renewable energy gang" is.

The story of how renewables take over the world and displace fossil fuels and nuclear totally relies on storage, in some cases seasonal storage, IE overproducing in summer and holding on to the energy til the end of winter.

Does hydrogen work for it? Well, maybe, it could, there are unresolved issues but hey we are trying to do science here. It's not like batteries work, they are fine for short term storage, but even then, they aren't displacing, say, pumped hydro. And yet hydrogen bad, batteries good. And don't even get me started on nuclear.

It feels like the "save the planet" movement, or at least some shards of it, come with a very specific notion of how exactly it is ok to save the planet, and what fails on style points.

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