You know what's even more over-hyped is GPT-4. Sam Altman recently stated that many people will be disappointed because of all of the rumours that it's AGI.
now that's starting to tread hype territory. AGI is a COMPLETELY different beast.
ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
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Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#12I've been trying to use ChatGPT productively by asking it instead of looking up docs or search Duck Duck Go. I'm becoming more and more disillusioned. I was sceptical at first, then thoroughly impressed by all the blog posts, but actually using it is extremely frustrating. It's really good at composing answers that look plausible, but it just has no idea what you want. The only thing it is truly good at is composing…
I've used it to port code to different languages, and it seems to do a pretty good job.
Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#13A lot of people outside of tech haven't heard of it yet. It is absolutely going to get overhyped but I would say it is currently underhyped and if you think this is hype then you're going to have a fun 2023.
Well what happens when they hear of it? It's not like crypto, people outside tech can't get rich off it.
Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#14A lot of people outside of tech haven't heard of it yet. It is absolutely going to get overhyped but I would say it is currently underhyped and if you think this is hype then you're going to have a fun 2023.
Dude it was on the local news here last week. I donno where you are at but everyone I know has heard of it, even the people who don't own any computer beyond a smartphone in 2023.
Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#15Less overhyped than crypto. Fewer lost fortunes as well
donno about that one, the beast that is openAI has gobbled up several billion already.
Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#16I've been trying to use ChatGPT productively by asking it instead of looking up docs or search Duck Duck Go. I'm becoming more and more disillusioned. I was sceptical at first, then thoroughly impressed by all the blog posts, but actually using it is extremely frustrating. It's really good at composing answers that look plausible, but it just has no idea what you want. The only thing it is truly good at is composing…
I've had fairly good results in doing zero shot classifications, or asking it to summarize structured data in a human friendly way (e.g. a weather report).
I've found its knowledge to be flawed if you poke enough into it though that feels more like it doesn't "understand" the facts that are embedded into the words.
However, using it to do the classification natural language, extract certain pieces of information from the query, and then convert the structured data back to natural language it shows itself to be very capable and able to be "better sounding" than rules based summaries of that data.
I've also found it to be quite capable at rewriting poorly written questions (e.g. Stack overflow questions - yea, I know, banned and all) to remove extraneous parts ("I'm a noob", "Thanks in advance"), fix grammar, and change the tone to be more professional... and creating a good summary title.
Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#17Less overhyped than crypto. Fewer lost fortunes as well
A classic tweet from the uncomfortable AWS truths thread - https://twitter.com/QuinnyPig/status/1173369022655516672
> Nobody has figured out how to make money from AI/ML other than by selling you a pile of compute and storage for your AI/ML misadventures.
Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#18You know what's even more over-hyped is GPT-4. Sam Altman recently stated that many people will be disappointed because of all of the rumours that it's AGI.
Yeah, it's a useful scaling experiment given the improvement from GPT-2 to GPT-3.5 (base of ChatGPT), but I'd have to guess the "emergent capability" curve is flattening out at this point.
ChatGPT already does well when essentially regurgitating factually correct information, but the obvious weakness of an LLM is that when combining sources its just combining them linguistically so it produces fine sounding streams of often factually incorrect bullshit.
It's hard to imagine how GPT-4 will be much different unless there have been some fundamental extensions to the model architecture, or changes to the training regime. Presumably it'll do better in "search engine mode" where people are hoping it'll "understand" the subtleties of their questions in selecting what to generate, but hard to see how it'll avoid the "bullshit chained deduction" problem unless they've added a way for it to learn from it's own mistakes.
In terms of perception/disappointment, I guess it depends on individual expectations. If you want GPT-4 to be a better "search engine" than GPT-3, then you may be happy. If you expect GPT-4 to be "more intelligent" than GPT-3, then I'm guessing not so much. Let's see!
I've a hunch it may do well as the basis of an improved Copilot since this seems to be an easier subdomain.
Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#19[dead]
Re: ChatGPT Is at the Peak of the Hype Cycle
#20You know what's even more over-hyped is GPT-4. Sam Altman recently stated that many people will be disappointed because of all of the rumours that it's AGI.
Yeah, it's a useful scaling experiment given the improvement from GPT-2 to GPT-3.5 (base of ChatGPT), but I'd have to guess the "emergent capability" curve is flattening out at this point. ChatGPT already does well when essentially regurgitating factually correct information, but the obvious weakness of an LLM is that when combining sources its just combining them linguistically so it produces fine sounding streams o…
AGI is still AGI even if it's often wrong.