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Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

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Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#341
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's silly to mention the cash on the balance sheet without also mentioning the debt of $77B. In reality, the net cash position is on the order of magnitude of $30B which puts a much tighter perspective on the impact of this cut. 40% of all public companies created since market inception in 1871 have gone bankrupt including many of the bluest of the blue chips. Complacent thinking like this is often the reason. Addit…

A lot of the bloat is at the top. How many executives, VPs, directors, high level managers, etc. are part of this?

Those are the people making the layoff decisions...

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#342
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It boggles my mind that people will work hard for an employer. You care about you less than a used napkin.

We don’t do it expecting love in return - we get a paycheck every two weeks

The steady paycheck is the obvious first motivation, but really, I do it for two more things: 1) the sense of accomplishment, and 2) the occasional batshit-enormous award. Yes, they've used this lever to hoodwink me into working hard just for the possibility, but the legendary microsoft "gold star" award is no joke.

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm talking about the $100+ Million advertisers, not small ones like you. Disney is most interested in making sure that Mickey Mouse / Winnie the Pooh / Zootopia is not accidentally shown next to furry porn. Southwest doesn't want its ads shown next to airplane disasters. Kellogs doesn't want "Itsssss GREAT" being shown next to the Ukrainian War. As I said before: you can't predict the "X is being shown next to Y, pl…

Twitter didn't have a keyword list to exclude after being in the business for like 20 years? They needed ad buyers to manually contact them and then needed someone to add that with a developer?

IIRC, those tools were in an incomplete state before the takeover... but at least they were somewhat working and Twitter's executives were prompt in responding to any issues. But the APIs have been degenerating rapidly after the takeover.

When the tools aren't working as expected, the advertisers then emailed Twitter's API teams. All of those teams have been dismantled, the executives have been fired. With no one left to contact, the advertisers have begun to leave.

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they spend any amount much less $3b or $10b to keep people they don’t need/want?

> Why would they spend any amount much less $3b or $10b to keep people they don’t need/want? I understand that HN is a US-centric forum, where neoliberalism dictates the baseline and the interpretation of all things in life is reduced to a simplistic transaction in a theoretical free market. However, society is comprised of people with family and a personal life and hopes and dreams and aspirations. Hiring someone ha…

This is an uncharitable take. The ability to fire at-will is the reason companies in the US are able to hire and pay as high as they do. As a dual-national Brazilian-American who has also spent years living in Europe, the social contracts are very different, and different people might value different things, but I'll take the downside layoff risk in exchange for upside in pay and mobility.

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Advertisers dropped spending because they don't like Elon/his behavior. Not because sales staff were laid off. It's quite obvious to anybody looking at the situation objectively. Twitter has functioned fine after massive layoffs, and feature velocity has only accelerated. Too many developers have an inflated sense of self importance

> Twitter has functioned fine after massive layoffs, and feature velocity has only accelerated Feature velocity for users . Not customers. Also, the deprecation of APIs strongly intimates Twitter Blue was a failure.

> Also, the deprecation of APIs

... and has driven away, or may drive away, many of the core content providers for their network effects. People who buy a third party client for twitter are generally not casual users. I reached out to a few friends I would consider 'posters' a couple of journos, a couple of 'personal brand' advertiser types... all of their twitter engagement is way down .. from both sides of the conversation. Two of them are now in a 'mostly I just post now' mode. Having conversations has become to hard. The other two are struggling along but they've had to cut way back, one said 'It was like I was building a house with a nailgun, but it got taken away and someone handed me a rock.'

It took me two days without tweetbot to realize it was was one of the only things that kept me actually using twitter. Finally causing me to mothball my account and throw up a personal mastodon install and start re-finding my personal follows there (I'm at about 50% of my list, but i'm finding that mostly what I'm missing is retweets from a few degrees out). My feed's incoming posts per hour are certainly down from twitter by about 60% but I was honestly expecting much lower numbers.

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never seen a cold and calculated layoff. It's always been exasperated irrational arm-waving risk mitigation. The "good" people aren't kept - instead it's the ones that can navigate the political waters. For every one competent executive there seems to be 3 deluded narcissistic idiots who will slash and burn people who are overqualified and under-utilized for the positions they've been incompetently assigned. Now…

Yup, most mass layoffs are done without consulting the directly/skip managers who actually know who the strong performers are.

No. Most layoffs are done by the managers being given either quotas or burn rate caps and tasked with producing lists of people to layoff.

The point of "many bosses" is if your manager knows you work on other projects, it's easier to leave you off the list.

The point of "no bosses" is no manager is tasked with considering you. You're not on anyone's books. There's numerous ways of doing this if you're interested.

If you have to play the one boss game it's harder. Some managers will want to keep their most talented people, other managers are looking for team cohesion and want the most friendly while others will break their project into roles and then assign people on a sheet of paper into those roles and get rid of what they consider redundant.

Some bosses will want to get rid of the most talented people on the logic that they probably have one foot out the door anyway and there's always a resignation aftershock after a layoff so might as well be seen as the one bold enough to do the cost cutting.

Some bosses will want to get rid of their most expensive people on the logic that they'll have the easiest time finding other work or maybe they'll have to get rid of fewer when they're more expensive, while others might want to get rid of their cheapest with the logic that they'll be easier to replace in the future.

There's really no silver bullet way to survive that. You have to know who is making the decision and somehow guess how they'll do it well in advance of the event so you can occupy a safe position in the mind of the decision maker.

Almost nobody acts based on some objective logic, instead they have predictable patterns of behavior and varying modalities. That's why you need to shake the org structure and get out of that situation.

If you want to insulate yourself from consideration, that's where the small bet team is in play. Preferably this is associated with the company cash cow. Let's say you work for Uber. A small bets team might be optimizing the UI using some behavioral techniques to nudge the users into picking higher margin options.

The point here is the managers of managers will have a list of projects which will be sorted by some metric. You want to be at the bottom of that list and so even in the one boss model, your team may never be subject to layoffs.

Being a small bet makes it subject to the rational choice theory paradox of the dollar auction: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auction ... The manager of managers will hang on to the project using a sunk cost, but not a money pit, fallacy. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost) you want to be in a grey middle where you're not a cost of concern.

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you keep your Uber drivers, Landscapers and Cleaning Ladies on retainers because you have so much cash in your brokerage/bank account

This is..not a bad idea? I know several people that kept paying their cleaning people during COVID despite them not being able to come, because they were remote workers and could easily afford it.

I paid our cleaners during the first months of covid despite them not coming over... we've been using the same few people for almost a decade now. All the restrictions our governments created really fucked over people like them.

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#348

11,000 people - let's say an average loaded cost of $250k/yr. That's... ~$3b/yr these folks cost MSFT. Granted, it's per year, but ... keeping these people on for another 3 years would cost ~$10b. MSFT currently have $100b cash on hand. It's gotta be a little... frustrating to get be part of a 5% cut when there's so much free cash sitting around. I know, it's a narrow view of corporate finance, and I don't have the '…

[dead]

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#349

11,000 people - let's say an average loaded cost of $250k/yr. That's... ~$3b/yr these folks cost MSFT. Granted, it's per year, but ... keeping these people on for another 3 years would cost ~$10b. MSFT currently have $100b cash on hand. It's gotta be a little... frustrating to get be part of a 5% cut when there's so much free cash sitting around. I know, it's a narrow view of corporate finance, and I don't have the '…

It's silly to mention the cash on the balance sheet without also mentioning the debt of $77B. In reality, the net cash position is on the order of magnitude of $30B which puts a much tighter perspective on the impact of this cut. 40% of all public companies created since market inception in 1871 have gone bankrupt including many of the bluest of the blue chips. Complacent thinking like this is often the reason. Addit…

That debt is likely just leveraging OPM though.

Re: Microsoft to lay off 11k employees

#350

11,000 people - let's say an average loaded cost of $250k/yr. That's... ~$3b/yr these folks cost MSFT. Granted, it's per year, but ... keeping these people on for another 3 years would cost ~$10b. MSFT currently have $100b cash on hand. It's gotta be a little... frustrating to get be part of a 5% cut when there's so much free cash sitting around. I know, it's a narrow view of corporate finance, and I don't have the '…

Let's say you're within the ballpark.

A three year savings of $10B would be equal to their stated investment into OpenAI. Assume there is a global slowdown, and a corresponding decline in revenues; layoffs may be the way they've decided to free up cash flow to pay for the investment.

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