What even is LLM?
Large Language Model
Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
111–120 of 163 posts
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#112There is research [1] that suggests using GPS navigation could impact your brain function negatively. I wonder how this code generation “assistant” will impact the coding skills of its users in long term. As for the LLMs, stochastic parroting (hallucination), which is inherent to its design, makes it untrustworthy for precision work. Maybe some other architecture will prove more useful. LLMs can generate BS authorita…
I just tried ChatGPT today after weeks of hype on Twitter, and I was surprised to NOT be impressed? First I tried it on a bunch of programming topics -- it definitely gets in the right ballpark, but then the details are frequently wrong. I asked which languages have the F# |> operator, and it told me that OCaml, Elixir, Haskell and Scala do. 2 of them are correct, and 2 appeared wrong, so I googled it. After Googling…
This is not what it's good at at all. Not sure why people expect this to be it's forte.
It's like a really smart sheep dog or a junior junior carpenter. It's currently helping me refactor a .NET app to a trending pattern, not because it know how to do that exactly or which pattern is better, but because it doesn't tire out at the "boring" parts like I do, and it knows the difference (most of time) between IQueryable and ISomething that I just can't bother to google for the Nth time.
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#113Comment here seem to largely miss the point of the article, which isn't saying that nobody will employ software engineers. It is saying that instead of the current model of: 1 very highly compensated staff+ engineer 4 highly compensated senior engineers 4 pretty well-compensated mid-level engineers 2 decently compensated junior engineers The future might look like: 1 yet-more-highly-compensated staff+ engineer who sp…
My issue with this is that I have never, and I mean never, met a good software architect that wasn't also extremely good at the nuts-and-bolts of coding. I mean, I've interviewed people who called themselves software "architects" who could barely code a for loop, and these people are generally pretty useless beyond churning out PowerPoint diagrams.
I feel like this idea that you can have a software architect that just corrales a bunch of lowly code monkeys is a model that was invented by some MBA, or IBM (sorry to dig at IBM, there are some brilliant folks there but also some folks that for the life of me I can't figure out what they could be doing day-to-day). Will something like ChatGPT make this a viable model? Potentially, but I doubt it. If anything, I think it would be more difficult for a junior-level programmer to point out the subtle bugs that ChatGPT produces.
Like most software innovations in the past, I think that code generative AI will essentially lead to a Jensen's paradox for software - it will allow existing skilled programmers to just write more code, thus lowering the overall cost of code, leading to more demand.
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#114I think this makes assumptions about the demand for software engineers that seem unproven. Law salaries are bimodal because the demand for lawyers is limited, so there's only so many big law firms that can exist. In the near future, at least, it seems like demand for software engineers far outstrips supply and I think this will stay true in the long run because the market for software engineers is just different from…
> it seems like demand for software engineers far outstrips supply
Definitely not the case when layoff right now is in full force. Also this doesn't necessarily indicate high salary anyway. There is a huge demand for fruit picker, but due to the nature of economy and margin of business, the salary will stay deflated thus the shortage persists. In a high interests, no free money environment, will software firms still able to demonstrate ability to generate return for investors? That would the ultimate key for whether the high salary is going to sustain or disappear.
Regardless, I think this article has a point. We might be as well observing the end of the golden era for software engineers. LLM is a long-term salary oppressor, but in short term, simple dynamics of economy would test the market sufficiently.
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just tried ChatGPT today after weeks of hype on Twitter, and I was surprised to NOT be impressed? First I tried it on a bunch of programming topics -- it definitely gets in the right ballpark, but then the details are frequently wrong. I asked which languages have the F# |> operator, and it told me that OCaml, Elixir, Haskell and Scala do. 2 of them are correct, and 2 appeared wrong, so I googled it. After Googling…
This is not what it's good at at all. Not sure why people expect this to be it's forte. It's like a really smart sheep dog or a junior junior carpenter. It's currently helping me refactor a .NET app to a trending pattern, not because it know how to do that exactly or which pattern is better, but because it doesn't tire out at the "boring" parts like I do, and it knows the difference (most of time) between IQueryable…
I asked ChatGPT if it wrote this ^ comment, and it claimed that yes, it did. For the record, I don't believe it.
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
> then the experienced engineer will have to find other harder problems to solve. The experienced engineer also gets an LLM though
> The experienced engineer also gets an LLM though Say experienced engineer Edna was working on a project and the new grad Nelson replaced her because he was cheaper and about as good if both have LLMs, i.e., Edna + LLM ≈ Nelson + LLM even though Edna >> Nelson. So Edna needs to find a project to work on where LLMs don't equalize her arbitrage, i.e., Edna + LLM >> Nelson + LLM and Nelson needs one where Nelson + LLM…
My contention is "how do you determine if someone was 'as good'?" Very likely the people in the position to make a decision will not be qualified enough to even make that decision. IF (and really only if) such a determination is possible, then sure, I agree, find harder problems etc, but I assert that people will not make that determination (which is close to impossible to make) well, if at all because that wasn't the point in the first place.
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#117Comment here seem to largely miss the point of the article, which isn't saying that nobody will employ software engineers. It is saying that instead of the current model of: 1 very highly compensated staff+ engineer 4 highly compensated senior engineers 4 pretty well-compensated mid-level engineers 2 decently compensated junior engineers The future might look like: 1 yet-more-highly-compensated staff+ engineer who sp…
Also the average pay still went up. Doesn't seem that bad a future.
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#118There is research [1] that suggests using GPS navigation could impact your brain function negatively. I wonder how this code generation “assistant” will impact the coding skills of its users in long term. As for the LLMs, stochastic parroting (hallucination), which is inherent to its design, makes it untrustworthy for precision work. Maybe some other architecture will prove more useful. LLMs can generate BS authorita…
I wonder how this code generation “assistant” will impact the coding skills of its users in long term. My brain is already negatively impacted having to juggle 3 separate package managers, know the syntax and inputs for 17+ different dotfiles in a repo and then actively context switch between at least 3-4 languages on a daily basis. I counted it up recently and I've built products in at least 20 languages over the pa…
On the contrary, I'd argue all the switching probably kept you sharp
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#119"Note that querying LLMs and making the outputted code conform to specifications is probably a lot easier than writing the code yourself"
This overestimates the time developers spend typing text and underestimates the time spent thinking about problems, verification and locating bugs/code, etc.
Just because the output of a model is text doesn't mean it is a replacement. You would need extraordinary "single shot" functionality where the LLM always outputs correct code and knows how to deal with any potential specification. The moment it fails then you wouldn't want "paralegal" developers, you would want normal, maybe inexperienced, developers.
Single shot functionality is very impressive because humans can't do it, they build things incrementally, but once your program gets large, it can only be written incrementally, which at least implies that the AI needs to keep track of unbounded context.
Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wonder how this code generation “assistant” will impact the coding skills of its users in long term. My brain is already negatively impacted having to juggle 3 separate package managers, know the syntax and inputs for 17+ different dotfiles in a repo and then actively context switch between at least 3-4 languages on a daily basis. I counted it up recently and I've built products in at least 20 languages over the pa…
On the contrary, I'd argue all the switching probably kept you sharp
I sincerely doubt it, humans are historically poor at multitasking, being able to focus on solving problems at an architectural and algorithmic level requires concentration - not having to worry about some bull crap DevOps cloud formation nonsense.