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Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

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101–110 of 163 posts

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#101
Hasn't offshoring already done that to software? Unlike law, which is pretty local, the field is universal in software and most of the Asian, Eastern European, or South American programmers make nothing like north Americans.

And programmers in Silicon Valley or Seattle make tons more than in Oklahoma.

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>they've only solved "what you boss thinks software engineering is". Which is why bosses are excited but engineers are not, because subpar LLMs will be used to justify firing actual engineers and replace them with fresh college grads tasked to work with a code bot, because the bosses fundamentally think that is enough.

Then those projects will fail and they won't do that anymore. Or they'll succeed and engineers will have to find harder problems to solve. If a new grad + LLM can do task X about as well as an experienced engineer can, then the experienced engineer will have to find other harder problems to solve. Personally I think labor efficiency is good; why waste your labor on easy/solved problems?

> then the experienced engineer will have to find other harder problems to solve.

The experienced engineer also gets an LLM though

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#103

Comment here seem to largely miss the point of the article, which isn't saying that nobody will employ software engineers. It is saying that instead of the current model of: 1 very highly compensated staff+ engineer 4 highly compensated senior engineers 4 pretty well-compensated mid-level engineers 2 decently compensated junior engineers The future might look like: 1 yet-more-highly-compensated staff+ engineer who sp…

A team with "1 yet-more-highly-compensated staff+ engineer" would also have a pipeline of people one step below that for progression. Usually people who are "yet-more-highly-compensated" are not easy to poach and don't tend to change their job. You have to develop them internally. E.g. most DEs and Fellows in tech companies rose through the ranks over decades. It's very hard to hire a DE from the job market.

The unintuitive thing about software engineering is that low-level implementation and high-level architecture are both equally sensitive to quality of talent (and equally impact your product quality and business outcomes) because every line of code is a business decision. That's a big reason why even entry-level SWE talent costs so much. There is no paralegal-level work in software - it's been automated away.

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then those projects will fail and they won't do that anymore. Or they'll succeed and engineers will have to find harder problems to solve. If a new grad + LLM can do task X about as well as an experienced engineer can, then the experienced engineer will have to find other harder problems to solve. Personally I think labor efficiency is good; why waste your labor on easy/solved problems?

> then the experienced engineer will have to find other harder problems to solve. The experienced engineer also gets an LLM though

> The experienced engineer also gets an LLM though

Say experienced engineer Edna was working on a project and the new grad Nelson replaced her because he was cheaper and about as good if both have LLMs, i.e.,

Edna + LLM ≈ Nelson + LLM

even though

Edna >> Nelson.

So Edna needs to find a project to work on where LLMs don't equalize her arbitrage, i.e.,

Edna + LLM >> Nelson + LLM

and Nelson needs one where

Nelson + LLM >> LLM.

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#105
post #78

There is research [1] that suggests using GPS navigation could impact your brain function negatively. I wonder how this code generation “assistant” will impact the coding skills of its users in long term. As for the LLMs, stochastic parroting (hallucination), which is inherent to its design, makes it untrustworthy for precision work. Maybe some other architecture will prove more useful. LLMs can generate BS authorita…

I just tried ChatGPT today after weeks of hype on Twitter, and I was surprised to NOT be impressed? First I tried it on a bunch of programming topics -- it definitely gets in the right ballpark, but then the details are frequently wrong. I asked which languages have the F# |> operator, and it told me that OCaml, Elixir, Haskell and Scala do. 2 of them are correct, and 2 appeared wrong, so I googled it. After Googling…

I tried it without reading anything about it and I freaked out about losing my job. Then I tried it for any practical programming and realised it was no immediate threat at least and I calmed down abit.

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#106

There is research [1] that suggests using GPS navigation could impact your brain function negatively. I wonder how this code generation “assistant” will impact the coding skills of its users in long term. As for the LLMs, stochastic parroting (hallucination), which is inherent to its design, makes it untrustworthy for precision work. Maybe some other architecture will prove more useful. LLMs can generate BS authorita…

> There is research [1] that suggests using GPS navigation could impact your brain function negatively. I wonder how this code generation “assistant” will impact the coding skills of its users in long term.

I wonder how code completion and syntax highlighting have altered the brains of programmers negatively as well.

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#108
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just tried ChatGPT today after weeks of hype on Twitter, and I was surprised to NOT be impressed? First I tried it on a bunch of programming topics -- it definitely gets in the right ballpark, but then the details are frequently wrong. I asked which languages have the F# |> operator, and it told me that OCaml, Elixir, Haskell and Scala do. 2 of them are correct, and 2 appeared wrong, so I googled it. After Googling…

That vibes with the images from what I saw with Dall-E. The rendering/styling was superb, however, the logic and scene understanding were toddler-like. Still impressive, but if you had a picture with dogs sometimes a dog head would be pasted on top at the wrong angle. Confabulation is a great term for it IMHO.

That's basically right, AI of the type we're discussing has high technical ability like ability to draw and make grammatically correct sentences, without understanding the higher level structure of what it's doing. A bit like an enthusiastic teenager.

But I can't see how people aren't impressed, we couldn't do this a few years ago, and surely we will build on top of this in coming years.

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#109
post #45

This post is way to bullish on ChatGPT for coding, and underestimates how big the gap is between ChatGPT and a mid level FANG eng. ChatGPT is very impressive in what it can do, but if you deviate problem statements even a little bit from what it's seen before, it completely fails. Just an example try asking it to write Battleship in Python. It does very well. But then, try changing the rules a bit, and adding some re…

You're expecting way too much.

Have it give you a list of functions needed to write battleship.

Then have it write the classes.

Then set the rules.

Then have it write a GUI etc.

You'll have a much more successful encounter that way.

Re: Programmer salaries in the age of LLMs

#110
post #78

There is research [1] that suggests using GPS navigation could impact your brain function negatively. I wonder how this code generation “assistant” will impact the coding skills of its users in long term. As for the LLMs, stochastic parroting (hallucination), which is inherent to its design, makes it untrustworthy for precision work. Maybe some other architecture will prove more useful. LLMs can generate BS authorita…

I just tried ChatGPT today after weeks of hype on Twitter, and I was surprised to NOT be impressed? First I tried it on a bunch of programming topics -- it definitely gets in the right ballpark, but then the details are frequently wrong. I asked which languages have the F# |> operator, and it told me that OCaml, Elixir, Haskell and Scala do. 2 of them are correct, and 2 appeared wrong, so I googled it. After Googling…

Yes, I too have found it to be completely unreliable when it comes to specifics. However, I've been finding it really helpful in a few areas:

- taking point form, or messy notes, and converting it to full sentences/paragraphs. Useful for things like writing blurbs, longer emails, proposals. Naturally, it does veer towards cliche, so you kind of have to massage it back after.

- getting a bash script started in the right direction. I'm always fuzzy on bash syntax because I don't use it all the time. ChatGPT will usually screw up some details, but those can be fixed

- getting a general overview of a new topic area like a new software library, or say a historical period

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