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There’s no planet B

aeon.co

151–160 of 245 posts

Re: There’s no planet B

#151
post #32

Let's set aside the part that making a planet where we could live is hard. Just presume we did that, to start. Let's talk Logistics . Presume there are only 1 billion people left on Earth when we decide it's time to go. How do you get them there ? The gravity well holding us here (and holding the air down so we can breath it) is pretty darn strong. Today we're hoping to get cost-to-orbit down to around $100/kg. I wei…

> And what power source would you use to move that massive ship, and keep the light and heat on between stars? (Antimatter, I guess?)

Fusion. If nobody made it obvious until now, well, fusion is the ultimate interstellar power source. Fuel is everywhere, the ISP is huge (a few orders of magnitude smaller than antimatter, but well, antimatter doesn't exist everywhere), and it's far from the hardest thing to build for a ship like that.

Anyway, there is still space to cut orders of magnitude on the cost-to-orbit. But you are correct in that none of that will solve any of our current problems.

Re: There’s no planet B

#152
post #32

Let's set aside the part that making a planet where we could live is hard. Just presume we did that, to start. Let's talk Logistics . Presume there are only 1 billion people left on Earth when we decide it's time to go. How do you get them there ? The gravity well holding us here (and holding the air down so we can breath it) is pretty darn strong. Today we're hoping to get cost-to-orbit down to around $100/kg. I wei…

> If we can make Mars habitable, we can make Earth habitable for far less cost. I think the main thing there is that Mars is a blank slate, unclaimed and fairly uniform. We can't terraform Earth because we can't get everyone aligned with the same goals. Moving away from fossil fuels means that a lot of individuals, corporations and countries have to make investments and sacrifices, or lose their grounds for existence…

Economics is how we align goals. When using clean energy is better and cheaper than fossil fuels then people don't need to be coerced into adopting it. It's rapidly reaching that state and already is there for many.

Re: There’s no planet B

#154
> From an astronomer’s perspective, Mars is Earth’s identical twin.

I know of precisely zero astronomers who consider Mars to be Earth's identical twin. Usually that's said of Venus, not Mars.

> The proposed absolute best-case scenario for terraforming Mars leaves us with an atmosphere we are incapable of breathing

That ain't the proposed "absolute best-case scenario". The actual best-case scenario comes from the steps after thickening the atmosphere with carbon dioxide - namely, the "grow plants in an atmosphere wherein they can actually breathe and not immediately freeze to death or get zapped to death by cosmic radiation".

Also, carbon dioxide ain't the only gas that would be involved. Water vapor is just as crucial. Neither are sufficiently abundant on Mars to be useful for terraforming, but asteroids tend to be rich with hydrocarbons and water - and NASA has already been testing the feasibility of redirecting asteroids.

> a more realistic scenario might be to build habitat domes on its surface

Outside of sci-fi that's rarely proposed. The more typical proposal (besides smaller, non-dome habitats) is to build underground. Easier to shield against radiation, easier to mitigate leaks.

> for example, this concept does not consider plate tectonics, which are thought to be crucial to sustain life on Earth.

Thought by whom? The link doesn't seem to assert that, and there's no reason to believe that plate tectonics contribute in any meaningful way to sustaining life on Earth. They likely contributed to creating life on Earth, but last I checked I ain't a thermophilic microbe huddled around a geothermal vent on the ocean floor.

> Earth’s current aeon, the Phanerozoic, began only around 541 million years ago with the Cambrian explosion [...] In 1 billion years, the gradual warming of our Sun is predicted to cause Earth’s oceans to boil away. While this certainly sounds worrying, 1 billion years is a long, long time.

The author's inconsistency on whether time periods are relatively "long" or "short" depending on whether it helps or hinder's the author's argument makes it increasingly difficult to assume the author is arguing in good faith.

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While I agree fully with the article that the destruction of Earth's biosphere can and must be prevented, I disagree strongly with the article's implicit conclusion that expanding beyond Earth is not a component of that. Earth is already straining to support the human population and its modern standard of living; that'll only get worse as the population grows, as those currently living in poorer parts of the world rightly demand a standard of living closer to that of the richer parts of the world, and as the richer parts of the world push the expected average standard of living yet higher.

We need to get as many humans off of Earth as we physically can, before Earth evicts us. We need to be moving as close to the entirety of our industry as possible into orbit, the Moon, and beyond. We need to give Earth an opportunity to heal from the damage we've done to it - and we need to buy time until we have the technological means to affordably do so.

Re: There’s no planet B

#155
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just magic woo though. You can't just "3D print" a clean room to build semiconductors or furnaces to smelt metal. Pretty much all heavy industry on Earth that makes all our high technology runs on petroleum products in some fashion. You can't just "3D print" lubrication and good luck building heavy industrial pieces without it.

Hmmm. While I would be actively surprised if the Moon, for example, had every element necessary for semiconductors, one of the things I absolutely do expect to be possible on its surface is 3D printing an extremely clean clean-room. Furnaces? Well, I think it would take a polishing step after printing, but if you have aluminium you can do a rough parabola out of it and focus sunlight on a patch of regolith. Can you t…

It doesn't matter if the moon has required elements to build semiconductors. Getting from sand to a solar panel or computer chip takes literal tons of infrastructure and precursor materials. Most of that infrastructure can't come from 3D printers. It's non-trivial to spin up a chemical factory on Earth with access to all of our infrastructure. Building one in space is orders of magnitude more difficult even if all of the technology required to do so already existed.

3D printers aren't Star Trek replicators. You can't take a manufacturing flowchart, add a "3D printer" node in the middle, and then consider your manufacturing problem solved. Even if you had a magic 3D printed that could print pipes and fasteners and ducting, it would still need to be assembled and the facility processed to get it clean enough to build semiconductors. Then you'd need smelters/factories processing raw materials to get the necessary feedstocks. Then you'd need reprocessing facilities that could recycle wastewater to be reused and catalyze waste chemicals to reuse.

Re: There’s no planet B

#156
post #106
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> nobody wants to live there Speak for yourself, I and many people I know would leap at the opportunity. As an Australian I have already considered applying for a rotation with the Australian Antarctic Division, and I will likely do so in the future when my life circumstances allow. With regards to your comment about bolide impact - you do realise that there is a non-zero probability of an impact that will destroy th…

Agreed. Way too many people seem to think that any asteroid impact would be similar to a thermonuclear device and could somehow be "survivable", which would only be true for relatively "small" asteroids. The reality is that a large enough or fast enough mass hitting not only Earth but any of it's neighboring planets could completely destabilize the solar system on a (literally) planetary scale. So even our fear of as…

On the other side of things, celestial objects are not flying around at random. They have trajectories typically leading away from us, and the odds for one to suddenly veer through what is mostly a void to hit another spec of dust are just as astronomically small as surviving the impact, should it actually happen.

Re: There’s no planet B

#157
I think that concern over the climate on Earth has reached “too much of a healthy thing” levels.

Climate change is almost certainly going to cause human and economic disasters on a massive scale, but it’s not going to eradicate the human species or most likely even meaningfully set civilization back more than completely avoidable policy stuff. It’s probably going to be “bad world war” level bad, which is very bad but not fatal to the species.

And perhaps more importantly, it’s like too late right? Even if we stopped burning all fossil fuels today we’re already in for a pretty massive chunk of the present forecasts I think?

And the Mars colonization stuff just makes no sense from a species survival standpoint: an arbitrarily polluted Earth is vastly more hospitable than Mars. Detecting and altering the course of asteroids is dramatically, dramatically more feasible than a self-sufficient Mars, and if it’s a GRB rather than an asteroid you’re just screwed no matter what.

Now if people want to colonize Mars because it’s awesome, I mean be my guest, but don’t sell it as asteroid insurance.

Re: There’s no planet B

#158
post #32

Let's set aside the part that making a planet where we could live is hard. Just presume we did that, to start. Let's talk Logistics . Presume there are only 1 billion people left on Earth when we decide it's time to go. How do you get them there ? The gravity well holding us here (and holding the air down so we can breath it) is pretty darn strong. Today we're hoping to get cost-to-orbit down to around $100/kg. I wei…

> I weigh a bit less than 100kg, so that's $10,000 just for my mass- not including the life support system I need.

That doesn't seem all that unreachable, honestly. The average middle-class income could swing that with a payment plan (said incomes commonly cover car payments already), and even for those who can't afford it, an enterprise seeking workers could surely cover that as part of an employment contract. We could also probably slash the costs - and multiply the scale - even further with non-rocket launch systems like skyhooks or launch loops.

Re: There’s no planet B

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of finding another Earth is not so much about moving everyone from Earth to somewhere else, but rather about "backing up" our species and civilisation in additional places. If an asteroid is going to wipe out Earth, we can't evacuate 8 billion people, or even 8 million people. but if we had a few generations of colonists in domes on Mars, or floating in the clouds on Venus, or somewhere else, the species its…

> But we're crazy to keep all of our existential eggs in a single basket and hope it all works out. While the cost to colonize elsewhere is "mine the earth to a wasteland" it does make sense to preserve the basket we have. At least until we can afford to buy another basket without ruining the original.

> While the cost to colonize elsewhere is "mine the earth to a wasteland" it does make sense to preserve the basket we have.

The cost of keeping human civilization on Earth is currently "(eventually, at this rate) mine the earth to a wasteland". We need to get as much of humanity's industry as possible into orbit and beyond if we want to avoid mining the Earth into a wasteland. That industry includes agriculture if we want to avoid clear-cutting the Earth into a wasteland, while we're at it.

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