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There’s no planet B

aeon.co

71–80 of 245 posts

Re: There’s no planet B

#71
post #63

Even if we manage to terraform and colonize another planet - that's not going to save us, if we destroy that other planet as well. And whatever other planet we do terraform and colonize is going to be a lot more fragile and a lot easier to destroy than earth is. If we can't manage to not destroy earth, there's no way we can manage to keep another planet going. So, we really should do everything to train and master th…

If we have the technology to terraform a planet ... we can totally clean up the Earth too ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKIOSnKX96E&t=1s

This piece by Konstantin Kisin rightfully pointed out that the only peaceful way out of the bind is with technology.

Re: There’s no planet B

#72
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There could be one more reason: living on the frontier. It's not about discovering new materials, or technologies, or physical phenomena. It's about exploring new social contracts. Here on Earth we are stuck with whatever social arrangements we've developed over the millennia, we can tweak here and there, but we can't start with a blank slate. For me this would be the grand prize: figuring out better ways for people…

Since the current iteration of the space race is run by billionaires, the chances are pretty good that some kind of turbo-capitalism will be the social arrangement on the colonies.

The nice thing about frontiers is that there's enough space (and lack of oversight) to try new systems of government without upsetting "the establishment", which hasn't yet had centuries to ossify into an out-of-touch bureaucracy.

When America was a frontier, this exploration yielded significant fruits...

Re: There’s no planet B

#73

I don’t think most of us are getting off this planet, not with human bodies. I do however love Greg Evans vision of the future of colonisation. Von Neumann probes and we just send the people as data. In one of his books there are even the “retronaughts” a group of Elon musk like obsessives slowly travelling on a fusion rocket, as human civilisation expands at the speed of light ahead of them, constantly in denial abo…

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Re: There’s no planet B

#74
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since the current iteration of the space race is run by billionaires, the chances are pretty good that some kind of turbo-capitalism will be the social arrangement on the colonies.

The nice thing about frontiers is that there's enough space (and lack of oversight) to try new systems of government without upsetting "the establishment", which hasn't yet had centuries to ossify into an out-of-touch bureaucracy. When America was a frontier, this exploration yielded significant fruits...

> The nice thing about frontiers is that there's enough space (and lack of oversight) to try new systems of government

This is a nice idea if the frontier is accessible by foot, horse, or boat.

If the frontier is accessible only via corporate-owned spaceship, then the frontier will inevitably be a corporate-owned dictatorship.

Re: There’s no planet B

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While the cost to colonize elsewhere is "mine the earth to a wasteland" I'm not sure where this idea is coming from. I think the idea of most modern colonisation plans is to use materials at the location to build habitats etc, by 3d printing using martian soil or lunar regolith, not ship millions of tons of natural resources into space.

That's just magic woo though. You can't just "3D print" a clean room to build semiconductors or furnaces to smelt metal. Pretty much all heavy industry on Earth that makes all our high technology runs on petroleum products in some fashion. You can't just "3D print" lubrication and good luck building heavy industrial pieces without it.

Luckily space is already clean, the trick will be converting current production processes to work in microgravity - process heat offtake without convection etc. LEO or higher orbit based manufacturing will probably occur before 2050, once that is solved then deploying infrastructure onto the Martian surface will become relatively trivial.

Re: There’s no planet B

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While the cost to colonize elsewhere is "mine the earth to a wasteland" I'm not sure where this idea is coming from. I think the idea of most modern colonisation plans is to use materials at the location to build habitats etc, by 3d printing using martian soil or lunar regolith, not ship millions of tons of natural resources into space.

That's just magic woo though. You can't just "3D print" a clean room to build semiconductors or furnaces to smelt metal. Pretty much all heavy industry on Earth that makes all our high technology runs on petroleum products in some fashion. You can't just "3D print" lubrication and good luck building heavy industrial pieces without it.

> You can't just "3D print" a clean room to build semiconductors or furnaces to smelt metal.

The idea isn't that you'll >. But yes, the idea is to "3D print" furnaces to smelt metal (basic furnaces are prehistory-era tech) using heat provided from the solar, wind and/or nuclear power you arrived with. Then use that to mine more ore to smelt more metal to "3D print" more... and so on, and so on, adapting production processes to local environment piece by piece, until you eventually reach basic self-sustainability, and yes, eventually you may be able to build a clean room using entirely local resources and processes.

(Of course, there's the matter of whether people living on other planets will want to go for full self-sufficiency, and then if Earth even allows it. There's a potential for trade here, but the flip side of that is political power. E.g. as long as a Mars colony depends on Earth for complex organics or high-tech industry products, they're effectively under control / at the mercy of Earth.)

> Pretty much all heavy industry on Earth that makes all our high technology runs on petroleum products in some fashion.

It didn't until recently, though. I imagine that between those older techniques from early-to-mid XX century, and modern advances in organic chemistry, you'd be able to eliminate some of the hydrocarbons used and synthesize others, without a need to dig dead plants/dinosaurs out of the ground.

> You can't just "3D print" lubrication and good luck building heavy industrial pieces without it.

That's all part of the R&D work for off-world habitats and industrializing space.

Re: There’s no planet B

#77
post #37
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(Edit: Liquid) Wealth represents economic surplus, much of which is gained unsustainably. The least we should expect is that this surplus doesn't also chase pipe dreams, because these have an additional opportunity cost.

The global perfume industry is about $50 billion. The porn industry is estimated to be between $6 and $15 billion. The NASA budget is $24 billion, so somewhere between porn and perfume. Also much of billionaires' net worth is fictitious paper. You can see this in Musk "losing" $150 billion dollars. That never really existed in the first place. It was leveraged value of things like stocks, not liquid wealth. What actu…

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Re: There’s no planet B

#78
post #32

Let's set aside the part that making a planet where we could live is hard. Just presume we did that, to start. Let's talk Logistics . Presume there are only 1 billion people left on Earth when we decide it's time to go. How do you get them there ? The gravity well holding us here (and holding the air down so we can breath it) is pretty darn strong. Today we're hoping to get cost-to-orbit down to around $100/kg. I wei…

The idea of finding another Earth is not so much about moving everyone from Earth to somewhere else, but rather about "backing up" our species and civilisation in additional places. If an asteroid is going to wipe out Earth, we can't evacuate 8 billion people, or even 8 million people. but if we had a few generations of colonists in domes on Mars, or floating in the clouds on Venus, or somewhere else, the species its…

In reality this is just a fantasy. It is not possible for a healthy human to really care about survival of human race in case of something catastrophic happening and wiping out humanity.

Re: There’s no planet B

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While the cost to colonize elsewhere is "mine the earth to a wasteland" I'm not sure where this idea is coming from. I think the idea of most modern colonisation plans is to use materials at the location to build habitats etc, by 3d printing using martian soil or lunar regolith, not ship millions of tons of natural resources into space.

That's just magic woo though. You can't just "3D print" a clean room to build semiconductors or furnaces to smelt metal. Pretty much all heavy industry on Earth that makes all our high technology runs on petroleum products in some fashion. You can't just "3D print" lubrication and good luck building heavy industrial pieces without it.

Hmmm.

While I would be actively surprised if the Moon, for example, had every element necessary for semiconductors, one of the things I absolutely do expect to be possible on its surface is 3D printing an extremely clean clean-room.

Furnaces? Well, I think it would take a polishing step after printing, but if you have aluminium you can do a rough parabola out of it and focus sunlight on a patch of regolith. Can you turn that molten alumina into aluminium and oxygen only by carbon rods and electricity? Or would electrolysis still work if you used a high-current election beam?

(I genuinely don't know, I didn't do material science).

Don't get me wrong, even if this is ultimately all fine without petrochemicals, I expect there is a lot of postgraduate research between now and any significant space manufacturing.

Re: There’s no planet B

#80
post #50

No matter how bad we fuck our planet, it’s still paradise compared to what else is out there. Elon Musk wants to go to mars, but Antarctica is much more amenable to life and nobody wants to live there. I understand it’s about having a backup plan for humanity. I think we could do it cheaper on Earth. I also don’t think we need one. It would be nearly impossible to make humans extinct at this point. We’re too adaptabl…

> nobody wants to live there

Speak for yourself, I and many people I know would leap at the opportunity. As an Australian I have already considered applying for a rotation with the Australian Antarctic Division, and I will likely do so in the future when my life circumstances allow.

With regards to your comment about bolide impact - you do realise that there is a non-zero probability of an impact that will destroy the actual crust of the Earth and remove the ability for _any_ life to exist on the planet right?

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