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The myth of Japan's failure

nytimes.com

41–50 of 123 posts

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#41
post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

[deleted]

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#42
My main takeaway from this article and these comments is that it's devilishly difficult to make international economic comparisons.

As one commenter mentioned such activities quickly disintegrate into highly subjective "meaning of life" debates.

This is incredibly important because a lot of policy analysis depends on making international comparisons. If such comparisons are really intractable problems then what does that say about the potential for effective policy making?

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#43
post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

Where are these riots of which you speak? Crime is at multi-decade lows in the U.S.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#44
I think this "lost decade" talk is mostly a matter of perspective, Japan is the nation in the world that, of any I can think of, could most afford to "lose a decade". An older population, a shrinking population, and a very high savings rate means that deflation was not as hard on its economy as it would be on an economy like the United States. In the US and many other economies inflation helps consumers with their debt, population growth requires that the overall GDP grow significantly to keep pace, and a younger population means many young people need meaningful work to sustain themselves while an older population can live on savings and supplement with poorly-paid employment to hobble through to retirement.

Some of the arguments may also be unfair:

The author breaks down GDP on a per capita basis to make the argument that Japan might have grown faster than the United States since 1989 - but Japan is 2 decades our from their financial collapse and the US only some 4 years after a similar event.

Unemployment in Japan has always been much lower than the US, so comparing them now as some sort of evidence regarding a "lost decade" is not meaningful.

It may also be that, since the population is shrinking, the life-expectancy gains are more of a collection of a dividend from past public health improvements than any reflection of recent health care system improvements. (I.e. all those old people living longer from better care in the past vs. relatively younger people dying from other causes to lower the average.)

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#45
post #28
post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

It reminds me of my first time visiting South Korea. While there I observed people who's job it was to wear a cute uniform and bow to cars entering the parking garage at the local department store, people hired by companies to stand in the aisles at the local supermarket holding packs of coffee or shampoo or whatever and dance to loud techno music (usually young women in short skirts and thigh high boots, bizarre to…

All marketing is "keep people busy" work.

In Australia, people don't like service-people. There's this weird pseudo-independence thing, where we'd like to believe that we haven't oppressed any workers to get our cup of coffee. It's not a problem if the coffee was grown by plantation slaves, and made by a Philippino guest-worker on an exploitive H1B1 equivalent visa, but the waitress had better be quick, efficient, and get out of our way so we don't feel sorry for her. If it's a waiter, he'd better be even quicker, because we detest seeing men do degrading work even more.

So all the marketing is depersonalised. Cafes might have lavish interiors which were extremely labor-intensive to build, but the work is all done behind closed doors. People will pay lots of money for seamless advertising and marketing, so you can't see that a real human being had to put the sign together.

It's kind of strange.

I'm sure service people hate their jobs, and do kind of meaningless stuff, but no less than the rest of us.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#46

I have been following Fingleton, the author of this article for quite a while. His main thesis that "Japan's lost decade is an illusion" has not changed much over the years. In fact, he was among the group "Japan bashers" in the 90s, and their main argument was that Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) was intentionally trying to paint a grim image of Japan to gain advantage in trade negotiations. This argument holds li…

This argument holds little water these days: it is next to impossible to hide information about the true state of a country when access to information is so easy thanks to the Internet.

It's actually quite easy:

Step 1: recognize that gathering macroeconomic statistics is really hard. One example: if people previously spent $3 on salsa, but now they spend $5 on guacamole, what is the inflation rate for mexican dips?

Step 2: come up with a catchy title for a statistic, and make sure reporters know all about it. E.g., "the burrito index, which measures how much good mexican food costs."

Step 3: tweak the definition of the statistic until you get the result you want.

Want more inflation? All mexican dips are equal, so inflation is up 66%. Want less inflation? Guacamole is 2x better than salsa, hence dips have actually dropped in price 17%.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#47
post #14
post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

> What is the end result of growth that makes societies "better"? The need for constant economic growth is just a side effect of how a capitalist economy works. That's why they all go into deep shit when growth slows down too much or stops. Nothing good or bad per so about it, in my opinion (although the improvement of productivity has obviously some positive effects).

A lot of capitalists also promote growth, but growth is not a necessary condition for capitalism.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#48
post #47
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the end result of growth that makes societies "better"? The need for constant economic growth is just a side effect of how a capitalist economy works. That's why they all go into deep shit when growth slows down too much or stops. Nothing good or bad per so about it, in my opinion (although the improvement of productivity has obviously some positive effects).

A lot of capitalists also promote growth, but growth is not a necessary condition for capitalism.

It's a necessary condition for a functioning capitalist economy. I can go into more details if you want, but the fact that the key economic indicator is GDP growth and that all economies go into turmoil when growth approaches 0 should tell you that this goes beyond the opinion of a bunch of people. It's an emerging effect of the rules of capitalism.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#49
post #20
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it, take a look at this, http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=japan+public+debt change the time scale to 10 years, it looks pretty sustainable to me... It's close to the lowest it has been in 10 years.

Wolfram Alpha displays the debt in your local currency (SEK to me). Which currency did it show to you? Look at this video and tell me how that is sustainable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0#t=0m13s

If I citizen of a country buys that country's bonds then a portion of their interest is collected back as capital gains. Thus the country actually pays (interest rate * (1- capital gains rate) - inflation rate). So because the overwhelming majority of Japan's debt is owned by it's own citizens and it's in it's own currency they can easily drive their loan servicing costs below zero at fairly modest inflation rates. They can also achieve the same effect by slightly bumping the capital gains tax which is currently set at 15%.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have fallen for the fallacy that there's a fixed amount of "work" in the economy. That's been disproven time and again, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy Rather, employment is a dynamic pie that can grow as more people add skills and put those skills to work.

Interesting fallacy. However, you seldom hear anyone criticize work today, all the theories and economieswant people to work more. Why not work less? Why not work at all? How come that all the effeciency and growth still make people work? Isnt the mother of all invention necessity, to not do something mundane and boring while we could be playing and having sex or dancing. Did humans always work since they began calli…

without doing work, you die. if you're alone, quite literally, as you would starve to death.

modern man is disconnect from nature and questions work. modern man is also very surprised when nature strikes back. a simple camping trip can suddenly become a life and death situation.

we live in a world of massive division of labor. hence questions like yours. money is abstract. so go on try living our there for a while, produce your own food and drink. effing hard work i tell you. a full time job.

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